Predicting the safety and efficacy of butter therapy to raise tumour pHe: an integrative modelling study

Background: Clinical positron emission tomography imaging has demonstrated the vast majority of human cancers exhibit significantly increased glucose metabolism when compared with adjacent normal tissue, resulting in an acidic tumour microenvironment. Recent studies demonstrated reducing this acidity through systemic buffers significantly inhibits development and growth of metastases in mouse xenografts.\ud \ud Methods: We apply and extend a previously developed mathematical model of blood and tumour buffering to examine the impact of oral administration of bicarbonate buffer in mice, and the potential impact in humans. We recapitulate the experimentally observed tumour pHe effect of buffer therapy, testing a model prediction in vivo in mice. We parameterise the model to humans to determine the translational safety and efficacy, and predict patient subgroups who could have enhanced treatment response, and the most promising combination or alternative buffer therapies.\ud \ud Results: The model predicts a previously unseen potentially dangerous elevation in blood pHe resulting from bicarbonate therapy in mice, which is confirmed by our in vivo experiments. Simulations predict limited efficacy of bicarbonate, especially in humans with more aggressive cancers. We predict buffer therapy would be most effectual: in elderly patients or individuals with renal impairments; in combination with proton production inhibitors (such as dichloroacetate), renal glomular filtration rate inhibitors (such as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors), or with an alternative buffer reagent possessing an optimal pK of 7.1–7.2.\ud \ud Conclusion: Our mathematical model confirms bicarbonate acts as an effective agent to raise tumour pHe, but potentially induces metabolic alkalosis at the high doses necessary for tumour pHe normalisation. We predict use in elderly patients or in combination with proton production inhibitors or buffers with a pK of 7.1–7.2 is most promising

Patient information leaflets (PILs) for UK randomised controlled trials : a feasibility study exploring whether they contain information to support decision making about trial participation

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Quintessence, the Gravitational Constant, and Gravity

Dynamical vacuum energy or quintessence, a slowly varying and spatially inhomogeneous component of the energy density with negative pressure, is currently consistent with the observational data. One potential difficulty with the idea of quintessence is that couplings to ordinary matter should be strongly suppressed so as not to lead to observable time variations of the constants of nature. We further explore the possibility of an explicit coupling between the quintessence field and the curvature. Since such a scalar field gives rise to another gravity force of long range (\simg H^{-1}_0), the solar system experiments put a constraint on the non-minimal coupling: |\xi| \siml 10^{-2}.Comment: 9 pages, a version to be published in Phys.Rev.

Facts, Values and Quanta

Quantum mechanics is a fundamentally probabilistic theory (at least so far as the empirical predictions are concerned). It follows that, if one wants to properly understand quantum mechanics, it is essential to clearly understand the meaning of probability statements. The interpretation of probability has excited nearly as much philosophical controversy as the interpretation of quantum mechanics. 20th century physicists have mostly adopted a frequentist conception. In this paper it is argued that we ought, instead, to adopt a logical or Bayesian conception. The paper includes a comparison of the orthodox and Bayesian theories of statistical inference. It concludes with a few remarks concerning the implications for the concept of physical reality.Comment: 30 pages, AMS Late

Outdoor host seeking behaviour of Anopheles gambiae mosquitoes following initiation of malaria vector control on Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Indoor-based anti-vector interventions remain the preferred means of reducing risk of malaria transmission in malaria endemic areas around the world. Despite demonstrated success in reducing human-mosquito interactions, these methods are effective solely against endophilic vectors. It may be that outdoor locations serve as an important venue of host seeking by <it>Anopheles gambiae </it>sensu lato (s.l.) mosquitoes where indoor vector suppression measures are employed. This paper describes the host seeking activity of anopheline mosquito vectors in the Punta Europa region of Bioko Island, Equatorial Guinea. In this area, <it>An. gambiae </it>sensu stricto (s.s.) is the primary malaria vector. The goal of the paper is to evaluate the importance of <it>An gambiae </it>s.l. outdoor host seeking behaviour and discuss its implications for anti-vector interventions.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The venue and temporal characteristics of host seeking by anopheline vectors in a hyperendemic setting was evaluated using human landing collections conducted inside and outside homes in three villages during both the wet and dry seasons in 2007 and 2008. Additionally, five bi-monthly human landing collections were conducted throughout 2009. Collections were segregated hourly to provide a time distribution of host-seeking behaviour.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Surprisingly high levels of outdoor biting by <it>An. gambiae </it>senso stricto and <it>An. melas </it>vectors were observed throughout the night, including during the early evening and morning hours when human hosts are often outdoors. As reported previously, <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. is the primary malaria vector in the Punta Europa region, where it seeks hosts outdoors at least as much as it does indoors. Further, approximately 40% of <it>An. gambiae </it>s.l. are feeding at times when people are often outdoors, where they are not protected by IRS or LLINs. Repeated sampling over two consecutive dry-wet season cycles indicates that this result is independent of seasonality.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p><it>An. gambiae </it>s.l. mosquitoes currently seek hosts in outdoor venues as much as indoors in the Punta Europa region of Bioko Island. This contrasts with an earlier pre-intervention observation of exclusive endophagy of <it>An. gambiae </it>in this region. In light of this finding, it is proposed that the long term indoor application of insecticides may have resulted in an adaptive shift toward outdoor host seeking in <it>An. gambiae </it>s.s. on Bioko Island.</p

Systematic techniques for assisting recruitment to trials (START): study protocol for embedded, randomized controlled trials

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials play a central role in evidence-based practice, but recruitment of participants, and retention of them once in the trial, is challenging. Moreover, there is a dearth of evidence that research teams can use to inform the development of their recruitment and retention strategies. As with other healthcare initiatives, the fairest test of the effectiveness of a recruitment strategy is a trial comparing alternatives, which for recruitment would mean embedding a recruitment trial within an ongoing host trial. Systematic reviews indicate that such studies are rare. Embedded trials are largely delivered in an ad hoc way, with interventions almost always developed in isolation and tested in the context of a single host trial, limiting their ability to contribute to a body of evidence with regard to a single recruitment intervention and to researchers working in different contexts. METHODS/DESIGN: The Systematic Techniques for Assisting Recruitment to Trials (START) program is funded by the United Kingdom Medical Research Council (MRC) Methodology Research Programme to support the routine adoption of embedded trials to test standardized recruitment interventions across ongoing host trials. To achieve this aim, the program involves three interrelated work packages: (1) methodology - to develop guidelines for the design, analysis and reporting of embedded recruitment studies; (2) interventions - to develop effective and useful recruitment interventions; and (3) implementation - to recruit host trials and test interventions through embedded studies. DISCUSSION: Successful completion of the START program will provide a model for a platform for the wider trials community to use to evaluate recruitment interventions or, potentially, other types of intervention linked to trial conduct. It will also increase the evidence base for two types of recruitment intervention. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The START protocol covers the methodology for embedded trials. Each embedded trial is registered separately or as a substudy of the host trial

Insecticide resistance and the future of malaria control in Zambia.

BACKGROUND: In line with the Global trend to improve malaria control efforts a major campaign of insecticide treated net distribution was initiated in 1999 and indoor residual spraying with DDT or pyrethroids was reintroduced in 2000 in Zambia. In 2006, these efforts were strengthened by the President's Malaria Initiative. This manuscript reports on the monitoring and evaluation of these activities and the potential impact of emerging insecticide resistance on disease transmission. METHODS: Mosquitoes were captured daily through a series of 108 window exit traps located at 18 sentinel sites. Specimens were identified to species and analyzed for sporozoites. Adult Anopheles mosquitoes were collected resting indoors and larva collected in breeding sites were reared to F1 and F0 generations in the lab and tested for insecticide resistance following the standard WHO susceptibility assay protocol. Annual cross sectional household parasite surveys were carried out to monitor the impact of the control programme on prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in children aged 1 to 14 years. RESULTS: A total of 619 Anopheles gambiae s.l. and 228 Anopheles funestus s.l. were captured from window exit traps throughout the period, of which 203 were An. gambiae malaria vectors and 14 An. funestus s.s.. In 2010 resistance to DDT and the pyrethroids deltamethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin and permethrin was detected in both An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.s.. No sporozoites were detected in either species. Prevalence of P. falciparum in the sentinel sites remained below 10% throughout the study period. CONCLUSION: Both An. gambiae s.s. and An. funestus s.s. were controlled effectively with the ITN and IRS programme in Zambia, maintaining a reduced disease transmission and burden. However, the discovery of DDT and pyrethroid resistance in the country threatens the sustainability of the vector control programme

Internally Electrodynamic Particle Model: Its Experimental Basis and Its Predictions

The internally electrodynamic (IED) particle model was derived based on overall experimental observations, with the IED process itself being built directly on three experimental facts, a) electric charges present with all material particles, b) an accelerated charge generates electromagnetic waves according to Maxwell's equations and Planck energy equation and c) source motion produces Doppler effect. A set of well-known basic particle equations and properties become predictable based on first principles solutions for the IED process; several key solutions achieved are outlined, including the de Broglie phase wave, de Broglie relations, Schr\"odinger equation, mass, Einstein mass-energy relation, Newton's law of gravity, single particle self interference, and electromagnetic radiation and absorption; these equations and properties have long been broadly experimentally validated or demonstrated. A specific solution also predicts the Doebner-Goldin equation which emerges to represent a form of long-sought quantum wave equation including gravity. A critical review of the key experiments is given which suggests that the IED process underlies the basic particle equations and properties not just sufficiently but also necessarily.Comment: Presentation at the 27th Int Colloq on Group Theo Meth in Phys, 200

The impact of Cochrane Systematic Reviews : a mixed method evaluation of outputs from Cochrane Review Groups supported by the UK National Institute for Health Research

© 2014 Bunn et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: There has been a growing emphasis on evidence-informed decision making in health care. Systematic reviews, such as those produced by the Cochrane Collaboration, have been a key component of this movement. The UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Systematic Review Programme currently supports 20 Cochrane Review Groups (CRGs). The aim of this study was to identify the impacts of Cochrane reviews published by NIHR funded CRGs during the years 2007-11. Methods: We sent questionnaires to CRGs and review authors, interviewed guideline developers and used bibliometrics and documentary review to get an overview of CRG impact and to evaluate the impact of a sample of 60 Cochrane reviews. We used a framework with four categories (knowledge production, research targeting, informing policy development, and impact on practice/services). Results: A total of 1502 new and updated reviews were produced by the 20 NIHR funded CRGs between 2007-11. The clearest impacts were on policy with a total of 483 systematic reviews cited in 247 sets of guidance; 62 were international, 175 national (87 from the UK) and 10 local. Review authors and CRGs provided some examples of impact on practice or services, for example safer use of medication, the identification of new effective drugs or treatments and potential economic benefits through the reduction in the use of unproven or unnecessary procedures. However, such impacts are difficult to objectively document and the majority of reviewers were unsure if their review had produced specific impacts. Qualitative data suggested that Cochrane reviews often play an instrumental role in informing guidance although a poor fit with guideline scope or methods, reviews being out of date and a lack of communication between CRGs and guideline developers were barriers to their use. Conclusions: Health and economic impacts of research are generally difficult to measure. We found that to be the case with this evaluation. Impacts on knowledge production and clinical guidance were easier to identify and substantiate than those on clinical practice. Questions remain about how we define and measure impact and more work is needed to develop suitable methods for impact analysis.Peer reviewe

What are the most important unanswered research questions in trial retention? A James Lind Alliance Priority Setting Partnership: the PRioRiTy II (Prioritising Retention in Randomised Trials) study

Background One of the top three research priorities for the UK clinical trial community is to address the gap in evidence-based approaches to improving participant retention in randomised trials. Despite this, there is little evidence supporting methods to improve retention. This paper reports the PRioRiTy II project, a Priority Setting Partnership (PSP) that identified and prioritised unanswered questions and uncertainties around trial retention in collaboration with key stakeholders. Methods This PSP was conducted in collaboration with the James Lind Alliance, a non-profit making initiative, to support key stakeholders (researchers, patients, and the public) in jointly identifying and agreeing on priority research questions. There were three stages. (1) First an initial online survey was conducted consisting of six open-ended questions about retention in randomised trials. Responses were coded into thematic groups to create a longlist of questions. The longlist of questions was checked against existing evidence to ensure that they had not been answered by existing research. (2) An interim stage involved a further online survey where stakeholders were asked to select questions of key importance from the longlist. (3) A face-to-face consensus meeting was held, where key stakeholder representatives agreed on an ordered list of 21 unanswered research questions for methods of improving retention in randomised trials. Results A total of 456 respondents yielded 2431 answers to six open-ended questions, from which 372 questions specifically about retention were identified. Further analysis included thematically grouping all data items within answers and merging questions in consultation with the Steering Group. This produced 27 questions for further rating during the interim survey. The top 21 questions from the interim online survey were brought to a face-to-face consensus meeting in which key stakeholder representatives prioritised the order. The ‘Top 10’ of these are reported in this paper. The number one ranked question was ’What motivates a participant’s decision to complete a clinical trial?’ The entire list will be available at www.priorityresearch.ie. Conclusion The Top 10 list can inform the direction of future research on trial methods and be used by funders to guide projects aiming to address and improve retention in randomised trials