Malaria Disease Distribution in Sudan Using TIME Series ARIMA Model

Malaria is widely spread and distributed in the tropical and subtropical regions of the world. Sudan is a sub-Saharan African country that is highly affected by malaria with 7.5 million cases and 35,000 deaths every year. The auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the spread of malaria in the Sudan. The ARIMA model used malaria cases from 2006 to 2011 as a training set, and data from 2012 as a testing set, and created the best model fitted to forecast the malaria cases in Sudan for years 2013 and 2014. The ARIMAX model was carried out to examine the relationship between malaria cases and climate factors with diagnostics of previous malaria cases using the least Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) values. The results indicated that there were four different models, the ARIMA model of the average for the overall states is (1,0,1)(0,1,1)12. The ARIMAX model showed that there is a significant variation between the states in Sudan

Freight Rates and Productivity Gains in British Tramp Shipping 1869-1950

The standard source for pre-WWII global freight rate trends is the Isserlis British tramp shipping index. We think it is flawed, and that its sources offer vastly more information than the Isserlis aggregate contains. The new data confirm the precipitous decline in nominal freight rates before the World War I, but it also extends the series to the 1940s. Furthermore, our new series is linked to the post-World War II era (documented by David Hummels), so that we can be more precise about what has happened over the very long run. We also create route-specific deflators by using the prices of commodities transported. Previous scholars have deflated their nominal freight rate indices by a price index that includes tradables not carried on all routes and non-tradables not carried on any route. Our deflated indices offer a more effective measure of the contribution of declining freight rates to commodity-price convergence across trading regions. Using the pricedual method and new indices for factor prices, we then calculate total factor productivity growth pre-war and interwar for five global routes. Finally, we identify the sources of the total factor productivity growth.

An Intelligent Tutoring System for Teaching Grammar English Tenses

The evolution of Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS) is the result of the amount of research in the field of education and artificial intelligence in recent years. English is the third most common languages in the world and also is the internationally dominant in the telecommunications, science and trade, aviation, entertainment, radio and diplomatic language as most of the areas of work now taught in English. Therefore, the demand for learning English has increased. In this paper, we describe the design of an Intelligent Tutoring System for teaching English language grammar to help students learn English grammar easily and smoothly. The system provides all topics of English grammar and generates a series of questions automatically for each topic for the students to solve. The system adapts with all the individual differences of students and begins gradually with students from easier to harder level. The intelligent tutoring system was given to a group of students of all age groups to try it and to see the impact of the system on students. The results showed a good satisfaction of the students toward the system

Sustainability of the US current account deficit: An econometric analysis of the impact of capital inflow on domestic economy

The purpose of this paper is to estimate, by using the recent econometric techniques of unit root testing and Johansen-Juselius cointegration technique (1990), the impact of foreign capital inflow on the volume and efficiency of domestic investment in the United States during the period, 1973-1999. A battery of diagnostic tests is employed to check the validity and robustness of the estimated results. Evidence suggests that capital inflows have had a significant positive effect on the volume of US investment, but the effect on the efficiency of investment has been minimal. These findings imply that, while achieving current account balance is important, it is equally important to sustain and augment the beneficial impact of capital inflow by creating a more conducive investment climate. Given our limited ability to influence current account balance, this seems to be a more pragmatic policy option for dealing with the US current account imbalance.current account, capital inflow

An Analytical Study of the Reality of Electronic Documents and Electronic Archiving in the Management of Electronic Documents in the Palestinian Pension Agency (PPA)

The study aims to identify the reality of management of electronic documents and electronic archiving retirement in the Palestinian Pension Agency -analytical study, as well as to recognize the reality of the current document management system in the Palestinian Pension Agency. The study found the following results: that the reality of the current system for the management of documents in the agency is weak and suffers from many jams. Employee in the agency understand the importance and benefits of the management of electronic documents system, where the application of electronic document management system provide important features and benefits most of which reduce the loss of documents between departments, illustrates the flow path, the speed, accuracy, transparency, and reduce the proportion of damage and destruction of files. Furthermore, the electronic documents system cost will be less than the cost of the current system and it will reduce the tasks assigned for the staff. The existence of a clear adoption of the agency for the policies and procedures established for the application of electronic documents management system. There are weak plans for training and developing of staff in the agency to raise their efficiency. The study found a set of recommendations, including: increased interest and awareness of the need to implement policies, mechanisms, and procedures to ensure the success of electronic document management system through benefiting from the experiences of other organizations and the private sector. The agency need to increase and develop its services for retirees in order to encourage the private sector, universities, and institutions to join the agency, and open the way for all segments of society in Gaza and West Bank and enhance its competitiveness between international social security institutions. The need to focus its attention on developing and publishing appropriate clear plans and specific goals about management of electronic documents and the agency should be committed to apply them. The need to focus on the establishment of a public management of archiving in the structure dealing with all technical operations and having competent and qualified employees in the field of electronic document management. The need to focus on the Palestinian National Archives and the follow-up with the international standards by the International Council Archives (ICA)