Long time motion of NLS solitary waves in a confining potential

We study the motion of solitary-wave solutions of a family of focusing generalized nonlinear Schroedinger equations with a confining, slowly varying external potential, $V(x)$. A Lyapunov-Schmidt decomposition of the solution combined with energy estimates allows us to control the motion of the solitary wave over a long, but finite, time interval. We show that the center of mass of the solitary wave follows a trajectory close to that of a Newtonian point particle in the external potential $V(x)$ over a long time interval.Comment: 42 pages, 2 figure

On the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes to changes in ozone-depleting substances and well-mixed greenhouse gases

The vertical profile of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes has traditionally represented an important diagnostic for the attribution of the cooling effects of stratospheric ozone depletion and CO2 increases. However, CO2-induced cooling alters ozone abundance by perturbing ozone chemistry, thereby coupling the stratospheric ozone and temperature responses to changes in CO2 and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Here we untangle the ozone-temperature coupling and show that the attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes to CO2 and ODS changes (which are the true anthropogenic forcing agents) can be quite different from the traditional attribution to CO2 and ozone changes. The significance of these effects is quantified empirically using simulations from a three-dimensional chemistry-climate model. The results confirm the essential validity of the traditional approach in attributing changes during the past period of rapid ODS increases, although we find that about 10% of the upper stratospheric ozone decrease from ODS increases over the period 1975–1995 was offset by the increase in CO2, and the CO2-induced cooling in the upper stratosphere has been somewhat overestimated. When considering ozone recovery, however, the ozone-temperature coupling is a first-order effect; fully 2/5 of the upper stratospheric ozone increase projected to occur from 2010–2040 is attributable to CO2 increases. Thus, it has now become necessary to base attribution of global-mean stratospheric temperature changes on CO2 and ODS changes rather than on CO2 and ozone changes

The effect of nonlinearity in CO2 heating rates on the attribution of stratospheric ozone and temperature changes

An analysis of the attribution of past and future changes in stratospheric ozone and temperature to anthropogenic forcings is presented. The analysis is an extension of the study of Shepherd and Jonsson (2008) who analyzed chemistry-climate simulations from the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and attributed both past and future changes to changes in the external forcings, i.e. the abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and well-mixed greenhouse gases. The current study is based on a new CMAM dataset and includes two important changes. First, we account for the nonlinear radiative response to changes in CO2. It is shown that over centennial time scales the radiative response in the upper stratosphere to CO2 changes is significantly nonlinear and that failure to account for this effect leads to a significant error in the attribution. To our knowledge this nonlinearity has not been considered before in attribution analysis, including multiple linear regression studies. For the regression analysis presented here the nonlinearity was taken into account by using CO2 heating rate, rather than CO2 abundance, as the explanatory variable. This approach yields considerable corrections to the results of the previous study and can be recommended to other researchers. Second, an error in the way the CO2 forcing changes are implemented in the CMAM was corrected, which significantly affects the results for the recent past. As the radiation scheme, based on Fomichev et al. (1998), is used in several other models we provide some description of the problem and how it was fixed

A century of social wasp occupancy trends from natural history collections: spatiotemporal resolutions have little effect on model performance

1. The current dearth of long‐term insect population trends is a major obstacle to conservation. Occupancy models have been proposed as a solution, but it remains unclear whether they can yield long‐term trends from natural history collections, since specimen records are normally very sparse. A common approach for sparse data is to coarsen its spatial and/or temporal resolution, although coarsening risks violating model assumptions. 2. We (i) test whether occupancy trends of three social wasp (Hymenoptera: Vespidae: Vespinae) species – the common wasp (Vespula vulgaris), the German wasp (Vespula germanica) and the European hornet (Vespa crabro) – have changed in England between 1900 and 2016, and (ii) test the effect of spatiotemporal resolution on the performance of occupancy models using very sparse data. All models are based on an integrated dataset of occurrence records and natural history collection specimen records. 3. We show that occupancy models can yield long‐term species‐specific trends from very sparse natural history collection specimens. We present the first quantitative trends for three Vespinae species in England over 116 years. Vespula vulgaris and V. germanica show stable trends over the time series, whilst V. crabro's occupancy decreased from 1950 to 1970 and increased since 1970. Moreover, we show that spatiotemporal resolution has little effect on model performance, although coarsening the spatial grain is an appropriate method for achieving enough records to estimate long‐term changes. 4. With the increasing availability of biological records, the model formulation used here has the potential to provide novel insights by making use of natural history collections' unique specimen assemblages

Vaccination of COPD patients with a pneumococcus type 6B tetanus toxoid conjugate vaccine

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links fieldThis paper examines how pneumococcal type 6B polysaccharide conjugated to tetanus toxoid (Pn6B-TT) compares to a 23 valent pneumococcal vaccine (pneumococcal polysaccharide (PPS)-23) with respect to immunogenicity and serum opsonic activity in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Patients with COPD aged 55-75 yrs were vaccinated with Pn6B-TT (n=10) or with PPS-23 (n=9). Healthy young adults (HA) were vaccinated with Pn6B-TT as controls. Total antibodies to serotype 6B polysaccharide were measured by radioimmunoassay and immunoglobulin (Ig)G antibodies by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Opsonic activity was measured by a phagocytosis assay using human neutrophils as effector cells. The patient groups were comparable by age, smoking history, lung function and use of steroids. COPD patients vaccinated with Pn6B-TT or PPS-23 showed an increase in IgG antibodies and a nonsignificant increase in opsonic activity. This was similar to the increase in IgG and opsonic activity seen in HA. There was a significant correlation between antibody levels and opsonic activity in COPD patients vaccinated both with Pn6B-TT and PPS-23. Pneumococcal antibodies have been shown to confer protection from infection. The results of the present study indicate that protective immunity can be expected in elderly chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients vaccinated with conjugate vaccines

Influence of the Antarctic ozone hole on the polar mesopause region as simulated by the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model

It is well established that variations in polar stratospheric winds can affect mesospheric temperatures through changes in the filtering of gravity wave fluxes, which drive a residual circulation in the mesosphere. The Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model(CMAM) is used to examine this vertical coupling mechanism in the context of the mesospheric response to the Antarctic ozone hole. It is found that the response differs significantly between late spring and early summer, because of a changing balance between the competing effects of parametrised gravity wavedrag (GWD)and changes in resolved wave drag local to the mesosphere. In late spring, the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the ozone hole lead to reduced eastward GWD in the mesosphere and a warming of the polar mesosphere, just as in the well known mesospheric response to sudden stratospheric warmings, but with an opposite sign.In early summer, with easterly flow revailing over most of the polar stratosphere,the strengthened easterly wind shear within the mesosphere arising from the west ward GWD anomaly induces a positive resolved wave drag anomaly through baroclinic instability. The polar cooling induced by this process completely dominates the upper mesospheric response to the ozone hole in early summer. Consequences for the past and future evolution of noctilucent clouds are discusse

Long-Time Dynamics of Variable Coefficient mKdV Solitary Waves

We study the Korteweg-de Vries-type equation dt u=-dx(dx^2 u+f(u)-B(t,x)u), where B is a small and bounded, slowly varying function and f is a nonlinearity. Many variable coefficient KdV-type equations can be rescaled into this equation. We study the long time behaviour of solutions with initial conditions close to a stable, B=0 solitary wave. We prove that for long time intervals, such solutions have the form of the solitary wave, whose centre and scale evolve according to a certain dynamical law involving the function B(t,x), plus an H^1-small fluctuation.Comment: 19 page

Impact of changes to reimbursement of fixed combinations of inhaled corticosteroids and long-acting β₂ -agonists in obstructive lung diseases: a population-based, observational study.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.In 2010, the Icelandic government introduced a new cost-saving policy that limited reimbursement of fixed inhaled corticosteroid/long-acting β₂ -agonist (ICS/LABA) combinations.This population-based, retrospective, observational study assessed the effects of this policy change by linking specialist/primary care medical records with data from the Icelandic Pharmaceutical Database. The policy change took effect on 1 January 2010 (index date); data for the year preceding and following this date were analysed in 8241 patients with controlled/partly controlled asthma and/or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who had been dispensed an ICS/LABA during 2009. Oral corticosteroid (OCS) and short-acting β₂ -agonist (SABA) use, and healthcare visits, were assessed pre- and post-index.The ICS/LABA reimbursement policy change led to 47.8% fewer fixed ICS/LABA combinations being dispensed during the post-index period among patients whose asthma and/or COPD was controlled/partly controlled during the pre-index period. Fewer ICS monocomponents were also dispensed. A total of 48.6% of patients were no longer receiving any respiratory medications after the policy change. This was associated with reduced disease control, as demonstrated by more healthcare visits (44.0%), and more OCS (76.3%) and SABA (51.2%) dispensations.Overall, these findings demonstrate that changes in healthcare policy and medication reimbursement can directly impact medication use and, consequently, clinical outcomes and should, therefore, be made cautiously.AstraZenec

Effect of non-zero constant vorticity on the nonlinear resonances of capillary water waves

The influence of an underlying current on 3-wave interactions of capillary water waves is studied. The fact that in irrotational flow resonant 3-wave interactions are not possible can be invalidated by the presence of an underlying current of constant non-zero vorticity. We show that: 1) wave trains in flows with constant non-zero vorticity are possible only for two-dimensional flows; 2) only positive constant vorticities can trigger the appearance of three-wave resonances; 3) the number of positive constant vorticities which do trigger a resonance is countable; 4) the magnitude of a positive constant vorticity triggering a resonance can not be too small.Comment: 6 pages, submitte

Studies on Calf Diarrhoea in Mozambique: Prevalence of Bacterial Pathogens

The prevalence of diarrhoea in calves was investigated in 8 dairy farms in Mozambique at 4 occasions during 2 consecutive years. A total of 1241 calves up to 6 months of age were reared in the farms, and 63 (5%) of them had signs of diarrhoea. Two farms had an overall higher prevalence (13% and 21%) of diarrhoea. Faecal samples were collected from all diarrhoeal calves (n = 63) and from 330 healthy calves and analysed for Salmonella species, Campylobacter jejuni and enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC). Salmonella spp. was isolated in only 2% of all calves. Campylobacter was isolated in 11% of all calves, irrespective of health condition, and was more frequent (25%) in one of the 2 diarrhoeal farms (p = 0.001). 80% of the isolates were identified as C. jejuni. No ETEC strains were detected among the 55 tested strains from diarrhoeal calves, but 22/55 (40%) strains from diarrhoeal calves and 14/88 (16%) strains from healthy calves carried the K99 adhesin (p = 0.001). 6,757 E. coli isolates were typed with a biochemical fingerprinting method (the PhenePlate™) giving the same E. coli diversity in healthy and diarrhoeal calves. Thus it was concluded: i) the overall prevalence of diarrhoea was low, but 2 farms had a higher prevalence that could be due to an outbreak situation, ii) Salmonella did not seem to be associated with diarrhoea, iii) Campylobacter jejuni was common at one of the 2 diarrhoeal farms and iv) ETEC strains were not found, but K99 antigen was more prevalent in E. coli strains from diarrhoeal calves than from healthy, as well as more prevalent in one diarrhoeal farm