A structured review of long-term care demand modelling

Long-term care (LTC) represents a significant and substantial proportion of healthcare spends across the globe. Its main aim is to assist individuals suffering with more or more chronic illnesses, disabilities or cognitive impairments, to carry out activities associated with daily living. Shifts in several economic, demographic and social factors have raised concerns surrounding the sustainability of current systems of LTC. Substantial effort has been put into modelling the LTC demand process itself so as to increase understanding of the factors driving demand for LTC and its related services. Furthermore, such modeling efforts have also been used to plan the operation and future composition of the LTC system itself. The main aim of this paper is to provide a structured review of the literature surrounding LTC demand modeling and any such industrial application, whilst highlighting any potential direction for future researchers

Trends and variation in mild disability and functional limitations among older adults in Norway, 1986–2008

An increase in the number of older adults may raise the demand for health and care services, whereas decreasing prevalence of disability and functional limitations among them might counteract this demographic effect. However, the trends in health are inconsistent between studies and countries. In this article, we estimated the trends in mild disability and functional limitations among older Norwegians and analyzed whether they differ between socio-demographic groups. Data were obtained from repeated cross-sectional surveys conducted in 1987, 1991, 1995, 2002, 2005, and 2008, in total 4,036 non-institutionalized persons aged 67 years or older. We analyzed trends using multivariate logistic regression. On average, the age-adjusted trend in functional limitations was −3.3% per year, and in disability 3.4% per year. The risk for functional limitations or disability was elevated for women compared to men, for married compared to non-married, and was inversely associated with educational level The trends were significantly weaker with increasing age for disabilities, whereas none of the trends differed significantly between subgroups of sexes, educational level or marital status. Both functional limitations free and disability-free life expectancy appeared to have increased more than total life expectancy at age 67 during this period. The analysis suggests downward trends in the prevalence of mild disability and functional limitations among older Norwegians between 1987 and 2008 and a compression of lifetime in such health states. The reduced numbers of older people with disability and functional limitations may have restrained the demand for health and care services caused by the increase in the number of older adults

The influence of fathers' socioeconomic status and paternity leave on breastfeeding duration: A population-based cohort study

Aim: The propensity to breastfeed is a matter of public concern because of the favourable effects for infants. However, very few studies have described the influence of paternal variables upon duration of breastfeeding. The aim of this study was to describe the effects of fathers’ socioeconomic status and their use of paternity leave on breastfeeding duration for infants up to 1 year of age. Methods: A prospective population-based cohort study was undertaken. Data on breastfeeding, registered in databases in two Swedish counties for 1993—2001, were matched with data on socioeconomic status and paternity leave obtained from Statistics Sweden. Fathers of 51,671 infants were identified and included. Results: Infants whose fathers had a lower level of education, were receiving unemployment benefit and/or had a lower equivalent disposable household income were significantly less likely to be breastfed at 2, 4, 6, 9, and 12 months of age. Infants whose fathers did not take paternity leave during the infant’s first year were significantly less likely to be breastfed at 2 (p < 0.001), 4 (p < 0.001), and 6 months (p < 0.001). Conclusions: This paper shows that an enabling of an increased involvement from fathers during the infants’ first year of life, such as by paid paternity leave, may have beneficial effects on breastfeeding up to 6 months of age. A more systematic approach to supporting fathers’ involvement may be particularly valuable to those infants whose fathers have a lower socioeconomic status