Using simulation to estimate the power of a badger vaccine trial

The aim of this study was to estimate the power of a badger vaccine field trial using simulation techniques. The effects of sample size, sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic test, transmission rate between unvaccinated badgers, Vaccine Efficacy for Susceptibility (VES) and Vaccine Efficacy for Infectiousness (VEI) on study power were determined. The most striking result was the large effect of the specificity of the diagnostic test on study power. Sample size had a small effect on power. Study power increased with increasing transmission rate between non-vaccinated badgers. Changes in VES had a higher impact on power than changes in VEI. In summary, study power in group randomized trials depends not only on sample size but on many other parameters. In the current vaccine trial, power was highly dependent on the specificity of the diagnostic test. Therefore, it is critical that the diagnostic test used in the badger vaccine trial is optimized to maximise test specificity

The Central Region in M100: Observations and Modeling

We present new high-resolution observations of the center of the late-type spiral M100 (NGC 4321) supplemented by 3D numerical modeling of stellar and gas dynamics, including star formation (SF). NIR imaging has revealed a stellar bar, previously inferred from optical and 21 cm observations, and an ovally-shaped ring-like structure in the plane of the disk. The K isophotes become progressively elongated and skewed to the position angle of the bar (outside and inside the `ring') forming an inner bar-like region. The galaxy exhibits a circumnuclear starburst in the inner part of the K `ring'. Two maxima of the K emission have been observed to lie symmetrically with respect to the nucleus and equidistant from it slightly leading the stellar bar. We interpret the twists in the K isophotes as being indicative of the presence of a double inner Lindblad resonance (ILR) and test this hypothesis by modeling the gas flow in a self-consistent gas + stars disk embedded in a halo, with an overall NGC4321-like mass distribution. We have reproduced the basic morphology of the region (the bar, the large scale trailing shocks, two symmetric K peaks corresponding to gas compression maxima which lie at the caustic formed by the interaction of a pair of trailing and leading shocks in the vicinity of the inner ILR, both peaks being sites of SF, and two additional zones of SF corresponding to the gas compression maxima, referred usually as `twin peaks').Comment: 31 pages, postscript, compressed, uuencoded. 21 figures available in postscript, compressed form by anonymous ftp from ftp://asta.pa.uky.edu/shlosman/main100 , mget *.ps.Z. To appear in Ap.

Gravitino Dark Matter and Neutrino Masses in Partial Split Supersymmetry

Partial Split Supersymmetry with bilinear R-parity violation allows to reproduce all neutrino mass and mixing parameters. The viable dark matter candidate in this model is the gravitino. We study the hypothesis that both possibilities are true: Partial Split Supersymmetry explains neutrino physics and that dark matter is actually composed of gravitinos. Since the gravitino has a small but non-zero decay probability, its decay products could be observed in astrophysical experiments. Combining bounds from astrophysical photon spectra with the bounds coming from the mass matrix in the neutrino sector we derive a stringent upper limit for the allowed gravitino mass. This mass limit is in good agreement with the results of direct dark matter searches.Comment: 22 pages, 3 figure