How to infer relative fitness from a sample of genomic sequences

Mounting evidence suggests that natural populations can harbor extensive fitness diversity with numerous genomic loci under selection. It is also known that genealogical trees for populations under selection are quantifiably different from those expected under neutral evolution and described statistically by Kingman's coalescent. While differences in the statistical structure of genealogies have long been used as a test for the presence of selection, the full extent of the information that they contain has not been exploited. Here we shall demonstrate that the shape of the reconstructed genealogical tree for a moderately large number of random genomic samples taken from a fitness diverse, but otherwise unstructured asexual population can be used to predict the relative fitness of individuals within the sample. To achieve this we define a heuristic algorithm, which we test in silico using simulations of a Wright-Fisher model for a realistic range of mutation rates and selection strength. Our inferred fitness ranking is based on a linear discriminator which identifies rapidly coalescing lineages in the reconstructed tree. Inferred fitness ranking correlates strongly with actual fitness, with a genome in the top 10% ranked being in the top 20% fittest with false discovery rate of 0.1-0.3 depending on the mutation/selection parameters. The ranking also enables to predict the genotypes that future populations inherit from the present one. While the inference accuracy increases monotonically with sample size, samples of 200 nearly saturate the performance. We propose that our approach can be used for inferring relative fitness of genomes obtained in single-cell sequencing of tumors and in monitoring viral outbreaks

Predicting Phenotypic Diversity and the Underlying Quantitative Molecular Transitions

During development, signaling networks control the formation of multicellular patterns. To what extent quantitative fluctuations in these complex networks may affect multicellular phenotype remains unclear. Here, we describe a computational approach to predict and analyze the phenotypic diversity that is accessible to a developmental signaling network. Applying this framework to vulval development in C. elegans, we demonstrate that quantitative changes in the regulatory network can render ~500 multicellular phenotypes. This phenotypic capacity is an order-of-magnitude below the theoretical upper limit for this system but yet is large enough to demonstrate that the system is not restricted to a select few outcomes. Using metrics to gauge the robustness of these phenotypes to parameter perturbations, we identify a select subset of novel phenotypes that are the most promising for experimental validation. In addition, our model calculations provide a layout of these phenotypes in network parameter space. Analyzing this landscape of multicellular phenotypes yielded two significant insights. First, we show that experimentally well-established mutant phenotypes may be rendered using non-canonical network perturbations. Second, we show that the predicted multicellular patterns include not only those observed in C. elegans, but also those occurring exclusively in other species of the Caenorhabditis genus. This result demonstrates that quantitative diversification of a common regulatory network is indeed demonstrably sufficient to generate the phenotypic differences observed across three major species within the Caenorhabditis genus. Using our computational framework, we systematically identify the quantitative changes that may have occurred in the regulatory network during the evolution of these species. Our model predictions show that significant phenotypic diversity may be sampled through quantitative variations in the regulatory network without overhauling the core network architecture. Furthermore, by comparing the predicted landscape of phenotypes to multicellular patterns that have been experimentally observed across multiple species, we systematically trace the quantitative regulatory changes that may have occurred during the evolution of the Caenorhabditis genus

Robustness Analysis and Behavior Discrimination in Enzymatic Reaction Networks

Characterizing the behavior and robustness of enzymatic networks with numerous variables and unknown parameter values is a major challenge in biology, especially when some enzymes have counter-intuitive properties or switch-like behavior between activation and inhibition. In this paper, we propose new methodological and tool-supported contributions, based on the intuitive formalism of temporal logic, to express in a rigorous manner arbitrarily complex dynamical properties. Our multi-step analysis allows efficient sampling of the parameter space in order to define feasible regions in which the model exhibits imposed or experimentally observed behaviors. In a first step, an algorithmic methodology involving sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine bifurcation thresholds for a limited number of model parameters or initial conditions. In a second step, this boundary detection is supplemented by a global robustness analysis, based on quasi-Monte Carlo approach that takes into account all model parameters. We apply this method to a well-documented enzymatic reaction network describing collagen proteolysis by matrix metalloproteinase MMP2 and membrane type 1 metalloproteinase (MT1-MMP) in the presence of tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase TIMP2. For this model, our method provides an extended analysis and quantification of network robustness toward paradoxical TIMP2 switching activity between activation or inhibition of MMP2 production. Further implication of our approach is illustrated by demonstrating and analyzing the possible existence of oscillatory behaviors when considering an extended open configuration of the enzymatic network. Notably, we construct bifurcation diagrams that specify key parameters values controlling the co-existence of stable steady and non-steady oscillatory proteolytic dynamics

A hyper-heuristic with two guidance indicators for bi-objective mixed-shift vehicle routing problem with time windows

In this paper, a Mixed-Shift Vehicle Routing Problem is proposed based on a real-life container transportation problem. In a long planning horizon of multiple shifts, transport tasks are completed satisfying the time constraints. Due to the different travel distances and time of tasks, there are two types of shifts (long shift and short shift) in this problem. The unit driver cost for long shifts is higher than that of short shifts. A mathematical model of this Mixed-Shift Vehicle Routing Problem with Time Windows (MS-VRPTW) is established in this paper, with two objectives of minimizing the total driver payment and the total travel distance. Due to the large scale and nonlinear constraints, the exact search showed is not suitable to MS-VRPTW. An initial solution construction heuristic (EBIH) and a selective perturbation Hyper-Heuristic (GIHH) are thus developed. In GIHH, five heuristics with different extents of perturbation at the low level are adaptively selected by a high level selection scheme with the Hill Climbing acceptance criterion. Two guidance indicators are devised at the high level to adaptively adjust the selection of the low level heuristics for this bi-objective problem. The two indicators estimate the objective value improvement and the improvement direction over the Pareto Front, respectively. To evaluate the generality of the proposed algorithms, a set of benchmark instances with various features is extracted from real-life historical datasets. The experiment results show that GIHH significantly improves the quality of the final Pareto Solution Set, outperforming the state-of-the-art algorithms for similar problems. Its application on VRPTW also obtains promising results

‘Glocal’ Robustness Analysis and Model Discrimination for Circadian Oscillators

To characterize the behavior and robustness of cellular circuits with many unknown parameters is a major challenge for systems biology. Its difficulty rises exponentially with the number of circuit components. We here propose a novel analysis method to meet this challenge. Our method identifies the region of a high-dimensional parameter space where a circuit displays an experimentally observed behavior. It does so via a Monte Carlo approach guided by principal component analysis, in order to allow efficient sampling of this space. This ‘global’ analysis is then supplemented by a ‘local’ analysis, in which circuit robustness is determined for each of the thousands of parameter sets sampled in the global analysis. We apply this method to two prominent, recent models of the cyanobacterial circadian oscillator, an autocatalytic model, and a model centered on consecutive phosphorylation at two sites of the KaiC protein, a key circadian regulator. For these models, we find that the two-sites architecture is much more robust than the autocatalytic one, both globally and locally, based on five different quantifiers of robustness, including robustness to parameter perturbations and to molecular noise. Our ‘glocal’ combination of global and local analyses can also identify key causes of high or low robustness. In doing so, our approach helps to unravel the architectural origin of robust circuit behavior. Complementarily, identifying fragile aspects of system behavior can aid in designing perturbation experiments that may discriminate between competing mechanisms and different parameter sets