System dynamics model of crises in small and medium enterprises

The article aims to improve existing theories of business development and crisis management with a special emphasis on inner dynamics of crises in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). For these purposes, combined perspectives of system dynamics, company life cycles, crisis management, resilience and business continuity management in SMEs have been used. Based on data of about 554 crises from 183 companies collected in the Czech Republic, the most common crises types and their combinations have been identified using association rules mining method. Then, a simulation system dynamics model synthesizing the main findings and allowing scenario analysis to explain and avoid some of the crises in SMEs has been developed for a case study of manufacturing company. Such a simulation model enriches the present knowledge and explains complex dynamics of crises in SMEs in a novel way. When properly calibrated, this model could be used as a supporting tool for decision-making in manufacturing SMEs