The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (M_w 7.8) and the tsunami hazard presented by shallow megathrust ruptures

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia earthquake (M_w 7.8) ruptured the shallow portion of the subduction zone seaward of the Mentawai islands, off-shore of Sumatra, generating 3 to 9 m tsunami run-up along southwestern coasts of the Pagai Islands that took at least 431 lives. Analyses of teleseismic P, SH and Rayleigh waves for finite-fault source rupture characteristics indicate ∼90 s rupture duration with a low rupture velocity of ∼1.5 km/s on the 10° dipping megathrust, with total slip of 2–4 m over an ∼100 km long source region. The seismic moment-scaled energy release is 1.4 × 10^(−6), lower than 2.4 × 10^(−6) found for the 17 July 2006 Java tsunami earthquake (M_w 7.8). The Mentawai event ruptured up-dip of the slip region of the 12 September 2007 Kepulauan earthquake (M_w 7.9), and together with the 4 January 1907 (M 7.6) tsunami earthquake located seaward of Simeulue Island to the northwest along the arc, demonstrates the significant tsunami generation potential for shallow megathrust ruptures in regions up-dip of great underthrusting events in Indonesia and elsewhere

Limitations of rupture forecasting exposed by instantaneously triggered earthquake doublet

Earthquake hazard assessments and rupture forecasts are based on the potential length of seismic rupture and whether or not slip is arrested at fault segment boundaries. Such forecasts do not generally consider that one earthquake can trigger a second large event, near-instantaneously, at distances greater than a few kilometers. Here we present a geodetic and seismological analysis of a magnitude 7.1 intra-continental earthquake that occurred in Pakistan in 1997. We find that the earthquake, rather than a single event as hitherto assumed, was in fact an earthquake doublet: initial rupture on a shallow, blind 2 reverse fault was followed just 19 seconds later by a second rupture on a separate reverse fault 50 km away. Slip on the second fault increased the total seismic moment by half, and doubled both the combined event duration and the area of maximum ground shaking. We infer that static Coulomb stresses at the initiation location of the second earthquake were probably reduced as a result of the first. Instead, we suggest that a dynamic triggering mechanism is likely, although the responsible seismic wave phase is unclear. Our results expose a flaw in earthquake rupture forecasts that disregard cascading, multiple-fault ruptures of this type