Year-Long Monthly Rainfall Forecasting for a Coastal Environment of Bangladesh

Forecasting rainfall plays an important role to develop, planning and management a sustainable water resource system. In this study stochastic Seasonal Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) were used to forecast monthly rainfall of Teknaf for 12 month lead time. The best SARIMA (0, 0, 0) (1, 1, 1) model was selected based on Normalized BIC (Bayesian Information Criteria) and R-squared. Diagnostic check was then conducted for the best fitted model to check if the residuals are white noise. The predicted rainfall amount from the best fitted model was compared with the observed data. The predicted values shows reasonably good result. Thus the model can be used for future rainfall prediction. Keywords: Bangladesh, Teknaf, Rainfall, ARIMA, Forecas

Behaviour, welfare, and tibia traits of fast- and slow-growing chickens reared in intensive and free range systems

The behaviour, welfare, and tibia characteristics of fast- and slow-growing chickens were evaluated in free-range and intensive production systems. A total of 720 birds of three strains were subjected to these systems after 21 days of rearing under the same intensive environment. Each treatment was replicated six times with 20 birds in each replicate. Data were collected for welfare aspects, including feather condition, footpad, hock joint and tonic immobility, behavioural features, especially feeding or foraging, sitting, walking, scratching, pecking and dust-bathing, and tibia characteristics, including weight, length, width, medullary canal diameter and robusticity index (4 - 8 weeks). Production system had significant effects on all welfare and behaviour aspects of the birds. However, tibia characteristics were not influenced by production system, except for medullary canal diameter. The strains differed significantly in welfare, tibia characteristics and behaviour. For example, the slow-growing strains had better feather condition,  footpad and hock joint scores. Significant interactions of strain and production system were noted for all characteristics. It was recommended that Rhode Island Red chickens could be raised under either production system without compromising their welfare or causing adverse effects on leg health

Evaluation of three fast- and slow-growing chicken strains reared in two production environments

The present study evaluated performance, physiological response and economics of commercial fast growing (CFG), commercial slow growing (CSG), and Rhode Island Red (RIR) chickens under intensive and free-range rearing environments. After 21 days of rearing under the same intensive environment 240 birds from each strain were subjected to free-range and intensive rearing until they were 56 days old. Each treatment was replicated six times with 20 birds in each replicate. Body surface and cloacal temperatures, respiration and heart rates, feed intake, bodyweight and weight gain, feed conversion efficiency, growth efficiency, and liveability were recorded. Significant differences among strains were detected in physiological response and growth performance (except liveability). Rearing environment also caused significant differences in physiological parameters (except body surface temperature) and growth performance (except liveability). Significant interactions of the strains and production systems were detected. The CFG strain grew most rapidly under the intensive system with differences between strains being reduced in the free-range system. The RSG and CSG strains had similar respiration rates under the two production systems but differed significantly from each other. However, the CFG strain had a significantly elevated respiration rate in the free-range system. Total input cost of rearing CFG under the intensive system was highest ($3.54) among the treatments, whereas CSG under a free-range environment generated the highest profit ($0.37 per bird). In conclusion, rearing CSG under free range was the most economic farming strategy in today’s scenario.Keywords: economics, fast-growing, free range, growth, intensive system, physiology, slow-growing rural chicken

Effects of production system and feeding regimen on carcass and meat quality traits of Naked Neck chicken

To evaluate the effect of a production system and feeding regimen on meat quality attributes of Naked Neck chickens, a total of 150 cockerels at 18 weeks old (1625 ± 70 g) were collected from 10 treatment groups with five replicates of three birds. The factorial arrangement of treatments consisted of two production systems (intensive and free-range) and five nutritional regimens, namely 100% commercial feed; 75% commercial feed plus 25% kitchen waste; 50% commercial feed plus 50% kitchen waste; 25% commercial feed plus 75% kitchen waste; and 100% kitchen waste. Carcass traits, meat quality, and meat organoleptic were found to differ significantly among production systems, feeding regimens, and their interaction. Higher liver weight was observed in birds reared under an intensive system. Higher gizzard weight was noted in birds fed with 100% kitchen waste, whereas lower gizzard weight was observed in birds fed the commercial diet. The meat from cockerels fed with 75% kitchen waste was most yellow, whereas the meat from the birds fed with 100% kitchen waste was least yellow. At two hours after slaughter, pH of the meat was highest in birds fed 50% kitchen waste and lowest in birds fed 100% kitchen waste. The interaction of production system and feeding regimen was significant for overall acceptability score. In conclusion, Naked Neck chickens performed equally well under intensive and free-range systems, irrespective of the level of kitchen waste that they were fed

Performance of Rhode Island Red, Black Australorp, and Naked Neck crossbreds under alternative production systems

The effects of the production system, breed cross, and their interaction on performance, egg quality, and hatching traits were evaluated. Rhode Island Red and Black Australorp were crossed with Naked Neck chickens (first generation RNN, and BNN, respectively). These crosses were mated among themselves and crossed to produce four crossbreds: RR (RNN x RNN), BB (BNN x BNN), RB (RNN x BNN), and BR (BNN x RNN). Thirty-six pullets and 9 cockerels from each crossbred were maintained in three production systems: the aviary system (AV), conventional cages (CC), and enriched cages (EC). Thus there were 48 pullets and 12 cockerels in each production system. Bodyweight, egg production percentage, and egg weight were highest in EC, followed by CC and AV. Higher egg weight, egg surface area, and egg volume were also observed in EC compared with CC and AV. Fertility and hatchability were higher and early embryonic mortality was lower in AV than in EC and CC. Bodyweight, egg production percentage, egg weight, egg volume, and surface area were higher for RB and BR than for BB and RR. Fertility and hatchability were similar for RB and BR. RR was similar to BR, but lower than RB. BB had the lowest fertility and hatchability. Thus, chickens in EC performed better than in the other systems, except that hatching traits were better in AV. RB and BR performed better than BB and RR.Key words: breed crosses, chicken, egg quality, hatchabilit

Capability Assessment of Finite Element Software in Predicting the Last Ply Failure of Composite Laminates

AbstractFinite element programming using language such as FORTRAN, C++ and MATLAB has been the common and traditional tool to perform the progressive failure analysis of composite structures. This procedure requires high programming skills and strong mathematical understanding. This paper for the first time assesses the capability of a commercially available finite element analysis (FEA) software, ANSYS, to perform the Last Ply Failure (LPF) analysis of a laminated composite plate. The analysis is carried out by employing Maximum Stress and Tsai-Wu failure criteria. It is modelled and performed using ANSYS software which has a feature that supports the failure criteria and analysis procedure. The feature allows determination of maximum strength on individual layers in a composite laminate, thus provide an easier way to predict the failure progression. Based on analysis, the ultimate failure load and failure curves (LPF) are determined. The failure curves are compared and discussed with respect to previous experimental and FEA (both LPF and FPF) works. The results show that the LPF curves are very close to experiment that exhibits average errors as low as 16%. Finally, it can be concluded that the ANSYS software is applicable in predicting an accurate composite laminate LPF

Assessment of health-related quality of life of COVID-19 patients during follow-up

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the quality of life of individuals worldwide. The aim of this study was to assess the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) and its associated factors among COVID-19 patients discharged from hospital. Methods: This facility-based cross-sectional study was conducted among laboratory confirmed COVID-19 patients who were discharged from medicine department of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University and did their first-month follow-up from April to September 2021. A validated Bengali version of International Quality of Life Assessment, Short form – 36 (SF-36) questionnaire was used to assess the HRQOL status. Univariate and multivariate analyses were done for identifying factors associated with low HRQOL. Result: Out of 225 patients, the mean (standard deviation) age was 36.9 (14.2) years and four in every ten patients were women. Out of eight subgroups, almost all scored averagely 79 out of 100. Older age, rural residence and severe to critical disease was reported as factors for low physical and mental component summary of SF-36. Conclusion: COVID-19 patients with older age, rural residence and having severe to critical disease condition need to be addressed critically as they have a higher chance of having low HRQOL status after COVID-19 infection

Etiological Spectrum of Pregnancy-Related Acute Renal Failure among Females at a Tertiary Care Hospital

Background: Acute renal failure in pregnancy can be induced by any of the disorders leading to renal failure in the general population, such as acute tubular necrosis due to infection, glomerulonephritis related to lupus, or drug toxicity. There are, however, pregnancy complications characteristic of each trimester that can result in renal failure. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency of various causes of pregnancy-related acute renal failure among females presenting to a tertiary care hospital