Scaling Analysis and Evolution Equation of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index Fluctuations

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) monthly index is studied from 1825 till 2002 in order to identify the scaling ranges of its fluctuations upon different delay times and to find out whether or not it can be regarded as a Markov process. A Hurst rescaled range analysis and a detrended fluctuation analysis both indicate the existence of weakly persistent long range time correlations for the whole scaling range and time span hereby studied. Such correlations are similar to Brownian fluctuations. The Fokker-Planck equation is derived and Kramers-Moyal coefficients estimated from the data. They are interpreted in terms of a drift and a diffusion coefficient as in fluid mechanics. All partial distribution functions of the NAO monthly index fluctuations have a form close to a Gaussian, for all time lags, in agreement with the findings of the scaling analyses. This indicates the lack of predictive power of the present NAO monthly index. Yet there are some deviations for large (and thus rare) events. Whence suggestions for other measurements are made if some improved predictability of the weather/climate in the North Atlantic is of interest. The subsequent Langevin equation of the NAO signal fluctuations is explicitly written in terms of the diffusion and drift parameters, and a characteristic time scale for these is given in appendix.Comment: 6 figures, 54 refs., 16 pages; submitted to Int. J. Mod. Phys. C: Comput. Phy

Late-Time Optical and UV Spectra of SN 1979C and SN 1980K

A low-dispersion Keck I spectrum of SN 1980K taken in August 1995 (t = 14.8 yr after explosion) and a November 1997 MDM spectrum (t = 17.0 yr) show broad 5500 km s^{-1} emission lines of H\alpha, [O I] 6300,6364 A, and [O II] 7319,7330 A. Weaker but similarly broad lines detected include [Fe II] 7155 A, [S II] 4068,4072 A, and a blend of [Fe II] lines at 5050--5400 A. The presence of strong [S II] 4068,4072 A emission but a lack of [S II] 6716,6731 A emission suggests electron densities of 10^{5-6} cm^{-3}. From the 1997 spectra, we estimate an H\alpha flux of 1.3 \pm 0.2 \times 10^{-15} erg cm^{-2} s^{-1} indicating a 25% decline from 1987--1992 levels during the period 1994 to 1997, possibly related to a reported decrease in its nonthermal radio emission.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figures, submitted to the Astronomical Journa

Cellular automaton rules conserving the number of active sites

This paper shows how to determine all the unidimensional two-state cellular automaton rules of a given number of inputs which conserve the number of active sites. These rules have to satisfy a necessary and sufficient condition. If the active sites are viewed as cells occupied by identical particles, these cellular automaton rules represent evolution operators of systems of identical interacting particles whose total number is conserved. Some of these rules, which allow motion in both directions, mimic ensembles of one-dimensional pseudo-random walkers. Numerical evidence indicates that the corresponding stochastic processes might be non-Gaussian.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figure

The 6-vertex model of hydrogen-bonded crystals with bond defects

It is shown that the percolation model of hydrogen-bonded crystals, which is a 6-vertex model with bond defects, is completely equivalent with an 8-vertex model in an external electric field. Using this equivalence we solve exactly a particular 6-vertex model with bond defects. The general solution for the Bethe-like lattice is also analyzed.Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures; added references for section

Effect of significant data loss on identifying electric signals that precede rupture by detrended fluctuation analysis in natural time

Electric field variations that appear before rupture have been recently studied by employing the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) as a scaling method to quantify long-range temporal correlations. These studies revealed that seismic electric signals (SES) activities exhibit a scale invariant feature with an exponent $\alpha_{DFA} \approx 1$ over all scales investigated (around five orders of magnitude). Here, we study what happens upon significant data loss, which is a question of primary practical importance, and show that the DFA applied to the natural time representation of the remaining data still reveals for SES activities an exponent close to 1.0, which markedly exceeds the exponent found in artificial (man-made) noises. This, in combination with natural time analysis, enables the identification of a SES activity with probability 75% even after a significant (70%) data loss. The probability increases to 90% or larger for 50% data loss.Comment: 12 Pages, 11 Figure

A structural evaluation of the tungsten isotopes via thermal neutron capture

Total radiative thermal neutron-capture $\gamma$-ray cross sections for the $^{182,183,184,186}$W isotopes were measured using guided neutron beams from the Budapest Research Reactor to induce prompt and delayed $\gamma$ rays from elemental and isotopically-enriched tungsten targets. These cross sections were determined from the sum of measured $\gamma$-ray cross sections feeding the ground state from low-lying levels below a cutoff energy, E$_{\rm crit}$, where the level scheme is completely known, and continuum $\gamma$ rays from levels above E$_{\rm crit}$, calculated using the Monte Carlo statistical-decay code DICEBOX. The new cross sections determined in this work for the tungsten nuclides are: $\sigma_{0}(^{182}{\rm W}) = 20.5(14)$ b and $\sigma_{11/2^{+}}(^{183}{\rm W}^{m}, 5.2 {\rm s}) = 0.177(18)$ b; $\sigma_{0}(^{183}{\rm W}) = 9.37(38)$ b and $\sigma_{5^{-}}(^{184}{\rm W}^{m}, 8.33 \mu{\rm s}) = 0.0247(55)$ b; $\sigma_{0}(^{184}{\rm W}) = 1.43(10)$ b and $\sigma_{11/2^{+}}(^{185}{\rm W}^{m}, 1.67 {\rm min}) = 0.0062(16)$ b; and, $\sigma_{0}(^{186}{\rm W}) = 33.33(62)$ b and $\sigma_{9/2^{+}}(^{187}{\rm W}^{m}, 1.38 \mu{\rm s}) = 0.400(16)$ b. These results are consistent with earlier measurements in the literature. The $^{186}$W cross section was also independently confirmed from an activation measurement, following the decay of $^{187}$W, yielding values for $\sigma_{0}(^{186}{\rm W})$ that are consistent with our prompt $\gamma$-ray measurement. The cross-section measurements were found to be insensitive to choice of level density or photon strength model, and only weakly dependent on E$_{\rm crit}$. Total radiative-capture widths calculated with DICEBOX showed much greater model dependence, however, the recommended values could be reproduced with selected model choices. The decay schemes for all tungsten isotopes were improved in these analyses.Comment: 25 pages, 15 figures, 15 table

Ethnic/racial diversity, maternal stress, lactation and very low birthweight infants.

OBJECTIVE: (1) To compare maternal characteristics and psychological stress profile among African-American, Caucasian and Hispanic mothers who delivered very low birthweight infants. (2) To investigate associations between psychosocial factors, frequency of milk expression, skin-to-skin holding (STS), and lactation performance, defined as maternal drive to express milk and milk volume. STUDY DESIGN: Self-reported psychological questionnaires were given every 2 weeks after delivery over 10 weeks. Milk expression frequency, STS, and socioeconomic variables were collected. RESULT: Infant birthweight, education, and milk expression frequency differed between groups. Trait anxiety, depression and parental stress in a neonatal intensive care unit (PSS:NICU) were similar. African-American and Caucasian mothers reported the lowest scores in state anxiety and social desirability, respectively. Maternal drive to express milk, measured by maintenance of milk expression, correlated negatively with parental role alteration (subset of PSS:NICU) and positively with infant birthweight and STS. Milk volume correlated negatively with depression and positively with milk expression frequency and STS. CONCLUSION: Differences between groups were observed for certain psychosocial factors. The response bias to self-reported questionnaires between groups may not provide an accurate profile of maternal psychosocial profile. With different factors correlating with maintenance of milk expression and milk volume, lactation performance can be best enhanced with a multi-faceted intervention program, incorporating parental involvement in infant care, close awareness and management of maternal mental health, and encouragement for frequent milk expression and STS

First passage behaviour of fractional Brownian motion in two-dimensional wedge domains

We study the survival probability and the corresponding first passage time density of fractional Brownian motion confined to a two-dimensional open wedge domain with absorbing boundaries. By analytical arguments and numerical simulation we show that in the long time limit the first passage time density scales as t**{-1+pi*(2H-2)/(2*Theta)} in terms of the Hurst exponent H and the wedge angle Theta. We discuss this scaling behaviour in connection with the reaction kinetics of FBM particles in a one-dimensional domain.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

A Spin - 3/2 Ising Model on a Square Lattice

The spin - 3/2 Ising model on a square lattice is investigated. It is shown that this model is reducible to an eight - vertex model on a surface in the parameter space spanned by coupling constants J, K, L and M. It is shown that this model is equivalent to an exactly solvable free fermion model along two lines in the parameter space.Comment: LaTeX, 7 pages, 1 figure upon request; JETP Letters, in pres

Quantifying signals with power-law correlations: A comparative study of detrended fluctuation analysis and detrended moving average techniques

Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) and detrended moving average (DMA) are two scaling analysis methods designed to quantify correlations in noisy non-stationary signals. We systematically study the performance of different variants of the DMA method when applied to artificially generated long-range power-law correlated signals with an {\it a-priori} known scaling exponent $\alpha_{0}$ and compare them with the DFA method. We find that the scaling results obtained from different variants of the DMA method strongly depend on the type of the moving average filter. Further, we investigate the optimal scaling regime where the DFA and DMA methods accurately quantify the scaling exponent $\alpha_{0}$, and how this regime depends on the correlations in the signal. Finally, we develop a three-dimensional representation to determine how the stability of the scaling curves obtained from the DFA and DMA methods depends on the scale of analysis, the order of detrending, and the order of the moving average we use, as well as on the type of correlations in the signal.Comment: 15 pages, 16 figure