Korean Peninsula Nuclear Challenges: The Imperative of Regional Cooperative Security Solutions

DOI: 10.5564/mjia.v0i14.27Mongolian Journal of International Affairs No.14 2007 pp.71-8

Planning the unplannable: Scenarios on the future of space

The article of record as published may be located at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.spacepol.2009.11.007This article explores the use of scenario analysis as a methodology to rigorously analyze potential space futures, particularly with respect to space security challenges, in the context of rapid and uncertain change across several dimensions of human space activities. The successful use of scenario analysis in other (e.g. corporate and military) sectors is described and results of an initial scenario analysis workshop are presented. Scenario analysis is recommended as a promising approach to evaluating the long-term consequences of various policy choices in the context of uncertainty, and as a process well-suited to fostering communication and building consensual knowledge among diverse stakeholders

Indications & Warning for Amphibious Ops against Taiwan: Philosophy, Methodology, Applications, Results

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThis research applies an Indications and Warning (I&W) analytical philosophy and methodology to the problem of warning of an amphibious movement against the Island of Taiwan. It identifies the tenets and philosophy behind I&W analysis; the general issues that must be addressed to undertake effective I&W analysis related to an amphibious operation against Taiwan; the alternative warning scenarios and various indicators associated with different types of amphibious attack against Taiwan (i.e., a rough template for the conduct of I&W amphibious analysis); and the issues involved in developing an operational response to warning. The research will culminate in an effort to engage senior line officers about the crucial role played by theater commanders when it comes to utilizing I&W intelligence. Warning only works when commanders are prepared to utilize it.Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Indications & Warning for Amphibious Ops against Taiwan: Philosophy, Methodology, Applications, Results

NPS NRP Project PosterThis research applies an Indications and Warning (I&W) analytical philosophy and methodology to the problem of warning of an amphibious movement against the Island of Taiwan. It identifies the tenets and philosophy behind I&W analysis; the general issues that must be addressed to undertake effective I&W analysis related to an amphibious operation against Taiwan; the alternative warning scenarios and various indicators associated with different types of amphibious attack against Taiwan (i.e., a rough template for the conduct of I&W amphibious analysis); and the issues involved in developing an operational response to warning. The research will culminate in an effort to engage senior line officers about the crucial role played by theater commanders when it comes to utilizing I&W intelligence. Warning only works when commanders are prepared to utilize it.Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI)N2/N6 - Information WarfareThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Prospects for Deterrence, Escalation, Coercion and War in the Indo-Pacific

NPS NRP Project PosterThis project will provide an assessment of the prospects for war in the Indo-Pacific to inform the Navy strategy in this theater. The project will examine how regional actors assess the prospects for war, specifically their attitudes towards deterrence, escalation management on the use of force at sea, and the implications for possible conflict with Indo-Pacific competitors. The findings in this study will be used to assess the implications for US maritime strategy throughout the region. The study will highlight the need for the Navy to rediscover long-forgotten writings on deterrence, coercion, and strategy to analyze the dimensions of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Prospects for Deterrence, Escalation, Coercion and War in the Indo-Pacific

NPS NRP Executive SummaryThis project will provide an assessment of the prospects for war in the Indo-Pacific to inform the Navy strategy in this theater. The project will examine how regional actors assess the prospects for war, specifically their attitudes towards deterrence, escalation management on the use of force at sea, and the implications for possible conflict with Indo-Pacific competitors. The findings in this study will be used to assess the implications for US maritime strategy throughout the region. The study will highlight the need for the Navy to rediscover long-forgotten writings on deterrence, coercion, and strategy to analyze the dimensions of the strategic environment in the Indo-Pacific.N3/N5 - Plans & StrategyThis research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrpChief of Naval Operations (CNO)Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

Countdown in Korea; Strategic Insights v.2, no.5, May 2003

This article appeared in Strategic Insights (May 2003), v.2 no.5North Korea's surprise admission last October to a secret nuclear weapons program based on uranium enrichment triggered a cascading breakdown of the 1994 Agreed Framework structure that had kept North Korea's more advanced plutonium-based nuclear program in check. By year's end North Korea had expelled United Nations inspectors and removed monitoring equipment at its Yongbyon nuclear complex, announced its withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, and begun preparations to restart its plutonium reprocessing facility. This twin proliferation danger surpasses even the apex of the 1993-4 North Korean crisis that nearly triggered a U.S. military attack. The Bush administration's de facto policy of hostile neglect toward North Korea has contributed to this crisis. Although North Korea's uranium-based program began well before the Bush team took office, the administration bears some responsibility for inciting acceleration of this program and for fostering the fragile conditions under which the program's revelation quickly precipitated a complete breakdown of U.S.-North Korea relations. Unfortunately, even as administration supporters have acknowledged the need for a new approach, there remains insufficient appreciation that the deficiency of the current administration's posture has been as much neglect as hostility

Unthinking the Unthinkable: U.S. Nuclear Policy and Asymmetric Threats; Strategic Insights, v. 3, issue 2 February 2004)

This article appeared in Strategic Insights, v.3, issue 2 February 2004)Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited

Dr. Wade L. Huntley: a biography

Wade L. Huntley, Ph.D., is senior lecturer in the National Security Affairs department at the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, and an independent consultant on international security issues. He has worked extensively engaging governmental officials and non-governmental experts on a range of contemporary international policy challenges. His publications include four edited volumes and over fifty peer-reviewed articles, book chapters and scholarly essays on topics of nuclear weapons proliferation, global security studies, security and arms control in space, US foreign policies, East and South Asian regional security, and international relations theory