The global credit boom: challenges for macroeconomics and policy

The recent financial crisis has put the spotlight on the rapid rise in credit which preceded it. In this paper, we provide an empirical and theoretical analysis of the credit boom and the macroeconomic context in which it developed. We find that the boom was unusually long and associated with neither particularly strong growth nor rising inflation in the economies in which it took place. We show that this type of credit and financial cycle is hard to reconcile with existing economic theory and argue that, while the 'global savings glut' may account for the cycle's initial phase, other factors - such as the conduct of monetary policy and perceptions of declining macroeconomic risk - were more important from the mid-2000s onwards. We conclude by identifying some of the challenges now facing macroeconomics and policy.credit; business cycle; financial crisis; monetary policy; asset prices; boom and bust

Mathematical optimisation of drainage and economic land use for target water and salt yields

Land managers in upper catchments are being asked to make expensive changes in land use, such as by planting trees, to attain environmental service targets, including reduced salt loads in rivers, to meet needs of downstream towns, farms and natural habitats. End-of-valley targets for salt loads have sometimes been set without a quantitative model of cause and effect regarding impacts on water yields, economic efficiency or distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders. This paper presents a method for calculating a ‘menu’ of technically feasible options for changes from current to future mean water yields and salt loads from upstream catchments having local groundwater flow systems, and the land-use changes to attain each of these options at minimum cost. It sets the economic stage for upstream landholders to negotiate with downstream parties future water-yield and salt-load targets, on the basis of what it will cost to supply these ecosystem services.discounting, landuse, NPV, opportunity-cost, salinity, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Editorial - special issue on informatics for ageing and aged-care

2 page(s

An Experimental Study of Static and Oscillating Rotor Blade Sections in Reverse Flow

The rotorcraft community has a growing interest in the development of high-speed helicopters to replace outdated fleets. One barrier to the design of such helicopters is the lack of understanding of the aerodynamic behavior of retreating rotor blades in the reverse flow region. This work considers two fundamental models of this complex unsteady flow regime: static and oscillating (i.e., pitching) airfoils in reverse flow. Wind tunnel tests have been performed at the University of Maryland (UMD) and the United States Naval Academy (USNA). Four rotor blade sections are considered: two featuring a sharp geometric trailing edge (NACA 0012 and NACA 0024) and two featuring a blunt geometric trailing edge (ellipse and cambered ellipse). Static airfoil experiments were performed at angles of attack through 180 deg and Reynolds numbers up to one million, representative of the conditions found in the reverse flow region of a full-scale high-speed helicopter. Time-resolved velocity field measurements were used to identify three unsteady flow regimes: slender body vortex shedding, turbulent wake, and deep stall vortex shedding. Unsteady airloads were measured in these three regimes using unsteady pressure transducers. The magnitude of the unsteady airloads is high in the turbulent wake regime when the separated shear layer is close to the airfoil surface and in deep stall due to periodic vortex-induced flow. Oscillating airfoil experiments were performed on a NACA 0012 and cambered ellipse to investigate reverse flow dynamic stall characteristics by modeling cyclic pitching kinematics. The parameter space spanned three Reynolds numbers (165,000; 330,000; and 500,000), five reduced frequencies between 0.100 and 0.511, three mean pitch angles (5,10, and 15 deg), and two pitch amplitudes (5 deg and 10 deg). The sharp aerodynamic leading edge of the NACA 0012 airfoil forces flow separation resulting in deep dynamic stall. The number of associated vortex structures depends strongly on pitching kinematics. The cambered ellipse exhibits light reverse flow dynamic stall for a wide range of pitching kinematics. Deep dynamic stall over the cambered ellipse airfoil is observed for high mean pitch angles and pitch amplitudes. The detailed results and analysis in this work contributes to the development of a new generation of high-speed helicopters

Analysis of Archived Residual Newborn Screening Blood Spots After Whole Genome Amplification

Deidentified newborn screening bloodspot samples (NBS) represent a valuable potential resource for genomic research if impediments to whole exome sequencing of NBS deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), including the small amount of genomic DNA in NBS material, can be overcome. For instance, genomic analysis of NBS could be used to define allele frequencies of disease-associated variants in local populations, or to conduct prospective or retrospective studies relating genomic variation to disease emergence in pediatric populations over time. In this study, we compared the recovery of variant calls from exome sequences of amplified NBS genomic DNA to variant calls from exome sequencing of non-amplified NBS DNA from the same individuals. Results: Using a standard alignment-based Genome Analysis Toolkit (GATK), we find 62,000-76,000 additional variants in amplified samples. After application of a unique kmer enumeration and variant detection method (RUFUS), only 38,000-47,000 additional variants are observed in amplified gDNA. This result suggests that roughly half of the amplification-introduced variants identified using GATK may be the result of mapping errors and read misalignment. Conclusions: Our results show that it is possible to obtain informative, high-quality data from exome analysis of whole genome amplified NBS with the important caveat that different data generation and analysis methods can affect variant detection accuracy, and the concordance of variant calls in whole-genome amplified and non-amplified exomes.National Institute of Health P01HD067244, NS076465, R01ES021006Nutritional Science

Pedal force effectiveness in cycling: A review of constraints and training effects

Pedal force effectiveness in cycling is usually measured by the ratio of force perpendicular to the crank (effective force) and total force applied to the pedal (resultant force). Most studies measuring pedal forces have been restricted to one leg but a few studies have reported bilateral asymmetry in pedal forces. Pedal force effectiveness is increased at higher power output and reduced at higher pedaling cadences. Changes in saddle position resulted in unclear effects in pedal force effectiveness, while lowering the upper body reduced pedal force effectiveness. Cycling experience and fatigue had unclear effects on pedal force effectiveness. Augmented feedback of pedal forces can improve pedal force effectiveness within a training session and after multiple sessions for cyclists and non-cyclists. No differences in pedal force effectiveness were evident between summarized and instantaneous feedback. Conversely, economy/efficiency seems to be reduced when cyclists are instructed to improve pedal force effectiveness during acute intervention studies involving one session. Decoupled crank systems effectively improved pedal force effectiveness with conflicting effects on economy/efficiency and performance

Experiments with regulations & markets linking upstream tree plantations with downstream water users

Land-use change in upper catchments impact downstream water flows. As trees use large amounts of water the expansion of upstream plantations can substantially reduce water availability to downstream users. There can also be impacts on downstream salinity due to reduced dilution flows. In some jurisdictions afforestation requires the purchase of water rights from downstream holders, while in others it does not, effectively handing the water rights to the upstream landholders. We consider the economic efficiency and equity (profitability and distributional) consequences of upstream land use change in the presence of a water market under alternate property rights regimes and different salinity scenarios.experimental-economics, tree-plantations, environmental-services, urban, irrigation, stock & domestic, water use, land use,

Effects of optogenetic stimulation of vasopressinergic retinal afferents on suprachiasmatic neurons

Physiological circadian rhythms are orchestrated by the hypothalamic suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN). The activity of SCN cells is synchronised by environmental signals, including light information from retinal ganglion cells (RGCs). We recently described a population of vasopressin‐expressing RGCs (VP‐RGC) that send axonal projections to the SCN. To determine how these VP‐RGCs influence the activity of cells in the SCN, we used optogenetic tools to specifically activate their axon terminals within the SCN. Rats were intravitreally injected with a recombinant adeno‐associated virus to express the channelrhodopsin‐2 and the red fluorescent protein mCherry under the vasopressin promoter (VP‐ChR2mCherry). In vitro recordings in acute brain slices showed that approximately 30% of ventrolateral SCN cells responded to optogenetic stimulation with an increase in firing rate that progressively increased during the first 200 seconds of stimulation and which persisted after the end of stimulation. Finally, application of a vasopressin V1A receptor antagonist dampened the response to optogenetic stimulation. Our data suggest that optogenetic stimulation of VP‐RGC axons within the SCN influences the activity of SCN cells in a vasopressin‐dependent manner.The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at http://datashare.is.ed.ac.ukMedical Research Council. Grant Number: MR/M022838http://wileyonlinelibrary.com/journal/jne2020-12-01hj2020Immunolog

An estimate of \Omega_m without priors

Using mean relative peculiar velocity measurements for pairs of galaxies, we estimate the cosmological density parameter $\Omega_m$ and the amplitude of density fluctuations $\sigma_8$. Our results suggest that our statistic is a robust and reproducible measure of the mean pairwise velocity and thereby the $\Omega_m$ parameter. We get $\Omega_m = 0.30^{+0.17}_{-0.07}$ and $\sigma_8 = 1.13^{+0.22}_{-0.23}$. These estimates do not depend on prior assumptions on the adiabaticity of the initial density fluctuations, the ionization history, or the values of other cosmological parameters.Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, slight changes to reflect published versio