Pilot study on the reliability of the coach\u27s eye: Identifying talent throughout a 4-day cadet judo campp

A typical assumption found in talent identification literature is that different coaches, given the same athletes and circumstances, will identify the same subset of athletes as “talented”. However, while coaches play a major role during talent identification in practical sport settings, there is limited empirical research exploring the processes which underpin this. The purpose of this study was to explore the reliability of “the coach\u27s eye” during the assessment of talent in a group of athletes. Specifically, this project compared inter-coach agreement between nine judo coaches (ages 35.8 ± 10.6 years) with varying levels of experience (12.9 ± 8.9 years) in the evaluation of 24 talented cadet judo athletes (13–15 years) at seven timepoints throughout a 4-day development training camp. Without discussion of their scores with other coaches, coaches provided a single score representing each athlete\u27s “potential for future performance” on an 11-point Likert scale at each timepoint. Scores from each coach were converted into rankings from 1 to 24 to create a normalized scale to facilitate comparison of athletes. Based on their rankings at each timepoint, athletes were placed into one of three evenly distributed groups (high, medium, and low rank). Inter-coach agreement at each timepoint was determined by the number of coaches who ranked each athlete in the same group, categorized at three levels: 50, 75 or 100% agreement. Overall results showed that at completion of the camp, coaches reached 100% agreement on only two athletes, both of whom were in the high rank group. When inter-coach agreement was set at 50%, 15 athletes (62.5%) were placed into like groups. The first timepoint at which coaches were able to differentiate between the majority of athletes was Timepoint 3 (end of day 2). The findings suggest that, in isolation, coaches do not agree on the talent or potential of athletes. This indicates that the “coach\u27s eye” is subjective and variable, and, given the same context, there is poor inter-coach agreement in the identification of talented athletes. In turn, these findings may have significant implications for both future talent identification research and athlete selection processes by sport organizations

Understanding the “gut instinct” of expert coaches during talent identification

Coaches are an integral part of talent identification in sport and are often used as the “gold standard” against which scientific methods of talent identification are compared. However, their decision-making during this process is not well understood. In this article, we use an ecological approach to explore talent identification in combat sports. We interviewed twenty-four expert, international-level coaches from the Olympic disciplines of boxing, judo, and taekwondo (age: 48.7 + 7.5 years; experience: 20.8 + 8.3 years). Findings indicated that when coaches identify talent they rely on “gut instinct”: intuitive judgements made without conscious thought, used to direct attention to particular athletes or characteristics. Our analysis revealed four major contributors to coaches’ intuition: experiential knowledge, temporal factors, seeing athletes in context, and what can be worked with. Our findings demonstrate that i) athlete selections may be influenced by the coaches’ perceived ability to improve certain athletes (rather than solely on athlete ability); and ii) “instinctual” decisions are the result of years of experience, time spent with the athlete, and the context surrounding the decision. Based on these findings, we recommend that future research focuses on the duration and conditions that are required for coaches to confidently and reliably identify talented athletes

SPL7013 Gel (VivaGel®) Retains Potent HIV-1 and HSV-2 Inhibitory Activity following Vaginal Administration in Humans

SPL7013 Gel (VivaGel®) is a microbicide in development for prevention of HIV and HSV. This clinical study assessed retention and duration of antiviral activity following vaginal administration of 3% SPL7013 Gel in healthy women. Participants received 5 single doses of product with ≥5 days between doses. A cervicovaginal fluid (CVF) sample was collected using a SoftCup™ pre-dose, and immediately, or 1, 3, 12 or 24 h post-dose. HIV-1 and HSV-2 antiviral activities of CVF samples were determined in cell culture assays. Antiviral activity in the presence of seminal plasma was also tested. Mass and concentration of SPL7013 in CVF samples was determined. Safety was assessed by reporting of adverse events. Statistical analysis was performed using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test with Bonferroni adjustment; p≤0.003 was significant. Eleven participants completed the study. Inhibition of HIV-1 and HSV-2 by pre-dose CVF samples was negligible. CVF samples obtained immediately after dosing almost completely inhibited (median, interquartile range) HIV-1 [96% (95,97)] and HSV-2 [86% (85,94)], and activity was maintained in all women at 3 h (HIV-1 [96% (95,98), p = 0.9]; HSV-2 [94% (91,97), p = 0.005]). At 24 h, >90% of initial HIV-1 and HSV-2 inhibition was maintained in 6/11 women. SPL7013 was recovered in CVF samples obtained at baseline (46% of 105 mg dose). At 3 and 24 h, 22 mg and 4 mg SPL7013, respectively, were recovered. More than 70% inhibition of HIV-1 and HSV-2 was observed if there was >0.5 mg SPL7013 in CVF samples. High levels of antiviral activity were retained in the presence of seminal plasma. VivaGel was well tolerated with no signs or symptoms of vaginal, vulvar or cervical irritation reported. Potent antiviral activity was observed against HIV-1 and HSV-2 immediately following vaginal administration of VivaGel, with activity maintained for at least 3 h post-dose. The data provide evidence of antiviral activity in a clinical setting, and suggest VivaGel could be administered up to 3 h before coitus

COVID-19 trajectories among 57 million adults in England: a cohort study using electronic health records

BACKGROUND: Updatable estimates of COVID-19 onset, progression, and trajectories underpin pandemic mitigation efforts. To identify and characterise disease trajectories, we aimed to define and validate ten COVID-19 phenotypes from nationwide linked electronic health records (EHR) using an extensible framework. METHODS: In this cohort study, we used eight linked National Health Service (NHS) datasets for people in England alive on Jan 23, 2020. Data on COVID-19 testing, vaccination, primary and secondary care records, and death registrations were collected until Nov 30, 2021. We defined ten COVID-19 phenotypes reflecting clinically relevant stages of disease severity and encompassing five categories: positive SARS-CoV-2 test, primary care diagnosis, hospital admission, ventilation modality (four phenotypes), and death (three phenotypes). We constructed patient trajectories illustrating transition frequency and duration between phenotypes. Analyses were stratified by pandemic waves and vaccination status. FINDINGS: Among 57 032 174 individuals included in the cohort, 13 990 423 COVID-19 events were identified in 7 244 925 individuals, equating to an infection rate of 12·7% during the study period. Of 7 244 925 individuals, 460 737 (6·4%) were admitted to hospital and 158 020 (2·2%) died. Of 460 737 individuals who were admitted to hospital, 48 847 (10·6%) were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 69 090 (15·0%) received non-invasive ventilation, and 25 928 (5·6%) received invasive ventilation. Among 384 135 patients who were admitted to hospital but did not require ventilation, mortality was higher in wave 1 (23 485 [30·4%] of 77 202 patients) than wave 2 (44 220 [23·1%] of 191 528 patients), but remained unchanged for patients admitted to the ICU. Mortality was highest among patients who received ventilatory support outside of the ICU in wave 1 (2569 [50·7%] of 5063 patients). 15 486 (9·8%) of 158 020 COVID-19-related deaths occurred within 28 days of the first COVID-19 event without a COVID-19 diagnoses on the death certificate. 10 884 (6·9%) of 158 020 deaths were identified exclusively from mortality data with no previous COVID-19 phenotype recorded. We observed longer patient trajectories in wave 2 than wave 1. INTERPRETATION: Our analyses illustrate the wide spectrum of disease trajectories as shown by differences in incidence, survival, and clinical pathways. We have provided a modular analytical framework that can be used to monitor the impact of the pandemic and generate evidence of clinical and policy relevance using multiple EHR sources. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation Data Science Centre, led by Health Data Research UK

A damaging punch: Assessment and application of a method to quantify punch performance

Measurement of punch performance in a reliable, quantitative manner is relevant to combat sport, military, and concussion research. A punching protocol (3MPT) was developed, based on performance demands of amateur boxing, and evaluated on a custom‐built punch integrator (PI). PI reliability and accuracy were assessed by calculating TE and CV for a range of known masses. A within‐subject, repeated‐measures design assessed the test‐retest reliability of 3MPT. Fifteen male boxers (17.5 ± 0.5 years; 177.5 ± 9.5 cm; 73.0 ± 14.0 kg) were familiarized and then completed two 3MPT trials 90 minutes apart on 2 days (total of four tests). Peak punch force (N), relative punch force (N/kg), impulse (N·s), and rate of force development calculated to various time points were compared using a linear mixed model. Smallest worthwhile change (SWC) was also computed. PI data were reliable and accurate (C

Detecting activations in event-related fMRI using analysis of variance.

The most common design of a functional MRI (fMRI) experiment is a block design. The use of rapid imaging, however, and carefully designed paradigms makes the separation of cognitive events possible. Such experiments make use of event-related paradigms, in which a task involving several cognitive processes is repeated. In analyzing data from such experiments, existing methods often prove inadequate, because the prediction of the exact shape or timing of the time course is difficult. Here we present an analysis of variance (ANOVA) method for analyzing fMRI data that does not require any assumptions about the shape of the activation time course. Consequently, this method can simultaneously detect brain areas showing a variety of stimulus-locked time courses in the same experiment. The utility of this technique is demonstrated by the analysis of data from two event-related paradigms in which regions of activation are detected that correspond to a variety of distinct neural processes, yielding significantly different temporal signal changes. Magn Reson Med 42:1117-1122, 1999

Detecting activations in event-related fMRI using analysis of variance.

The most common design of a functional MRI (fMRI) experiment is a block design. The use of rapid imaging, however, and carefully designed paradigms makes the separation of cognitive events possible. Such experiments make use of event-related paradigms, in which a task involving several cognitive processes is repeated. In analyzing data from such experiments, existing methods often prove inadequate, because the prediction of the exact shape or timing of the time course is difficult. Here we present an analysis of variance (ANOVA) method for analyzing fMRI data that does not require any assumptions about the shape of the activation time course. Consequently, this method can simultaneously detect brain areas showing a variety of stimulus-locked time courses in the same experiment. The utility of this technique is demonstrated by the analysis of data from two event-related paradigms in which regions of activation are detected that correspond to a variety of distinct neural processes, yielding significantly different temporal signal changes. Magn Reson Med 42:1117-1122, 1999