Evolutionary minority game with heterogeneous strategy distribution

We present detailed numerical results for a modified form of the so-called Minority Game, which provides a simplified model of a competitive market. Each agent has a limited set of strategies, and competes to be in a minority. An evolutionary rule for strategy modification is included to mimic simple learning. The results can be understood by considering crowd formation within the population.Comment: Revtex file + 4 figure

Second-trimester Maternal Serum Quadruple Test for Down Syndrome Screening: A Taiwanese Population-based Study

SummaryObjectiveTo assess the usefulness of quadruple test screening for Down syndrome in Taiwan.Materials and MethodsMaternal serum concentrations of a-fetoprotein, human chorionic gonadotropin, unconjugated estriol, and inhibin A were measured in 21,481 pregnant women from 15 to 20 weeks of gestation.ResultsOf the 21,481 women, 977 returned values greater than the high-risk cut-off value (1 in 270). Most of these women (86.2%) decided to have an invasive procedure for genetic diagnosis. Nine cases of Down syndrome and 19 cases of other chromosomal anomalies were detected prenatally. Two children with Down syndrome were diagnosed after delivery even though a low estimated risk was determined following the quadruple test. The detection rate was 81.8% (nine out of 11 cases), with a 4.4% false-positive rate. The median multiple of the median value for a-fetoprotein, human chorionic gonadotropin, unconjugated estriol and inhibin A were 0.87, 2.34, 0.77 and 2.16, respectively, in affected cases.ConclusionThis is the first study of the quadruple test for Down syndrome in a Chinese population. Our findings suggested that the second-trimester quadruple test provides an effective screening tool for Down syndrome in Taiwan

Imprints of Short Distance Physics On Inflationary Cosmology

We analyze the impact of certain modifications to short distance physics on the inflationary perturbation spectrum. For the specific case of power-law inflation, we find distinctive -- and possibly observable -- effects on the spectrum of density perturbations.Comment: Revtex 4, 3 eps figs, 4 page

Is the evidence for dark energy secure?

Several kinds of astronomical observations, interpreted in the framework of the standard Friedmann-Robertson-Walker cosmology, have indicated that our universe is dominated by a Cosmological Constant. The dimming of distant Type Ia supernovae suggests that the expansion rate is accelerating, as if driven by vacuum energy, and this has been indirectly substantiated through studies of angular anisotropies in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and of spatial correlations in the large-scale structure (LSS) of galaxies. However there is no compelling direct evidence yet for (the dynamical effects of) dark energy. The precision CMB data can be equally well fitted without dark energy if the spectrum of primordial density fluctuations is not quite scale-free and if the Hubble constant is lower globally than its locally measured value. The LSS data can also be satisfactorily fitted if there is a small component of hot dark matter, as would be provided by neutrinos of mass 0.5 eV. Although such an Einstein-de Sitter model cannot explain the SNe Ia Hubble diagram or the position of the `baryon acoustic oscillation' peak in the autocorrelation function of galaxies, it may be possible to do so e.g. in an inhomogeneous Lemaitre-Tolman-Bondi cosmology where we are located in a void which is expanding faster than the average. Such alternatives may seem contrived but this must be weighed against our lack of any fundamental understanding of the inferred tiny energy scale of the dark energy. It may well be an artifact of an oversimplified cosmological model, rather than having physical reality.Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures; to appear in a special issue of General Relativity and Gravitation, eds. G.F.R. Ellis et al; Changes: references reformatted in journal style - text unchange

Holographic Discreteness of Inflationary Perturbations

The holographic entropy bound is used to estimate the quantum-gravitational discreteness of inflationary perturbations. In the context of scalar inflaton perturbations produced during standard slow-roll inflation, but assuming that horizon-scale perturbations ``freeze out'' in discrete steps separated by one bit of total observable entropy, it is shown that the Hilbert space of a typical horizon-scale inflaton perturbation is equivalent to that of about 10^5 binary spins-- approximately the inverse of the final scalar metric perturbation amplitude, independent of other parameters. Holography thus suggests that in a broad class of fundamental theories, inflationary perturbations carry a limited amount of information (about 10^5 bits per mode) and should therefore display discreteness not predicted by the standard field theory. Some manifestations of this discreteness may be observable in cosmic background anisotropy.Comment: 13 pages, Latex, 4 figures, to appear in Phys. Rev. D. New figures and references adde

Primeval Corrections to the CMB Anisotropies

We show that deviations of the quantum state of the inflaton from the thermal vacuum of inflation may leave an imprint in the CMB anisotropies. The quantum dynamics of the inflaton in such a state produces corrections to the inflationary fluctuations, which may be observable. Because these effects originate from IR physics below the Planck scale, they will dominate over any trans-Planckian imprints in any theory which obeys decoupling. Inflation sweeps away these initial deviations and forces its quantum state closer to the thermal vacuum. We view this as the quantum version of the cosmic no-hair theorem. Such imprints in the CMB may be a useful, independent test of the duration of inflation, or of significant features in the inflaton potential about 60 e-folds before inflation ended, instead of an unlikely discovery of the signatures of quantum gravity. The absence of any such substructure would suggest that inflation lasted uninterrupted much longer than ${\cal O}(100)$ e-folds.Comment: 17 pages, latex, no figures; v3: added references and comments, final version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Gestalt for shock and mortality in the emergency department: A prospective study

Objective The diagnosis of shock in patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) is often challenging. We aimed to compare the accuracy of experienced emergency physician gestalt against Li's pragmatic shock (LiPS) tool for predicting the likelihood of shock in the emergency department, using 30-day mortality as an objective standard. Method In a prospective observational study conducted in an urban, academic ED in Hong Kong, adult patients aged 18 years or older admitted to the resuscitation room or high dependency unit were recruited. Eligible patients had a standard ED workup for shock. The emergency physician treating the patient was asked whether he or she considered shock to be probable, and this was compared with LiPS. The proxy ‘gold’ or reference standard was 30-day mortality. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) was used to predict prognosis. The primary outcome measure was 30-day mortality. Results A total of 220 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the analysis. The AUROC for LiPS (0.722; sensitivity = 0.733, specificity = 0.711, P < 0.0001) was greater than emergency physician gestalt (0.620, sensitivity = 0.467, specificity = 0.774, P = 0.0137) for diagnosing shock using 30-day mortality as a proxy (difference P = 0.0229). LiPS shock patients were 6.750 times (95%CI = 2.834–16.076, P < 0.0001) more likely to die within 30-days compared with non-shock patients. Patients diagnosed by emergency physicians were 2.991 times (95%CI = 1.353–6.615, P = 0.007) more likely to die compared with the same reference. Conclusions LiPS has a higher diagnostic accuracy than emergency physician gestalt for shock when compared against an outcome of 30-day mortality

Cosmological parameters from SDSS and WMAP

We measure cosmological parameters using the three-dimensional power spectrum P(k) from over 200,000 galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) in combination with WMAP and other data. Our results are consistent with a ``vanilla'' flat adiabatic Lambda-CDM model without tilt (n=1), running tilt, tensor modes or massive neutrinos. Adding SDSS information more than halves the WMAP-only error bars on some parameters, tightening 1 sigma constraints on the Hubble parameter from h~0.74+0.18-0.07 to h~0.70+0.04-0.03, on the matter density from Omega_m~0.25+/-0.10 to Omega_m~0.30+/-0.04 (1 sigma) and on neutrino masses from <11 eV to <0.6 eV (95%). SDSS helps even more when dropping prior assumptions about curvature, neutrinos, tensor modes and the equation of state. Our results are in substantial agreement with the joint analysis of WMAP and the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey, which is an impressive consistency check with independent redshift survey data and analysis techniques. In this paper, we place particular emphasis on clarifying the physical origin of the constraints, i.e., what we do and do not know when using different data sets and prior assumptions. For instance, dropping the assumption that space is perfectly flat, the WMAP-only constraint on the measured age of the Universe tightens from t0~16.3+2.3-1.8 Gyr to t0~14.1+1.0-0.9 Gyr by adding SDSS and SN Ia data. Including tensors, running tilt, neutrino mass and equation of state in the list of free parameters, many constraints are still quite weak, but future cosmological measurements from SDSS and other sources should allow these to be substantially tightened.Comment: Minor revisions to match accepted PRD version. SDSS data and ppt figures available at http://www.hep.upenn.edu/~max/sdsspars.htm

State of the climate in 2018

In 2018, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—continued their increase. The annual global average carbon dioxide concentration at Earth’s surface was 407.4 ± 0.1 ppm, the highest in the modern instrumental record and in ice core records dating back 800 000 years. Combined, greenhouse gases and several halogenated gases contribute just over 3 W m−2 to radiative forcing and represent a nearly 43% increase since 1990. Carbon dioxide is responsible for about 65% of this radiative forcing. With a weak La Niña in early 2018 transitioning to a weak El Niño by the year’s end, the global surface (land and ocean) temperature was the fourth highest on record, with only 2015 through 2017 being warmer. Several European countries reported record high annual temperatures. There were also more high, and fewer low, temperature extremes than in nearly all of the 68-year extremes record. Madagascar recorded a record daily temperature of 40.5°C in Morondava in March, while South Korea set its record high of 41.0°C in August in Hongcheon. Nawabshah, Pakistan, recorded its highest temperature of 50.2°C, which may be a new daily world record for April. Globally, the annual lower troposphere temperature was third to seventh highest, depending on the dataset analyzed. The lower stratospheric temperature was approximately fifth lowest. The 2018 Arctic land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying for third highest in the 118-year record, following 2016 and 2017. June’s Arctic snow cover extent was almost half of what it was 35 years ago. Across Greenland, however, regional summer temperatures were generally below or near average. Additionally, a satellite survey of 47 glaciers in Greenland indicated a net increase in area for the first time since records began in 1999. Increasing permafrost temperatures were reported at most observation sites in the Arctic, with the overall increase of 0.1°–0.2°C between 2017 and 2018 being comparable to the highest rate of warming ever observed in the region. On 17 March, Arctic sea ice extent marked the second smallest annual maximum in the 38-year record, larger than only 2017. The minimum extent in 2018 was reached on 19 September and again on 23 September, tying 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest extent on record. The 23 September date tied 1997 as the latest sea ice minimum date on record. First-year ice now dominates the ice cover, comprising 77% of the March 2018 ice pack compared to 55% during the 1980s. Because thinner, younger ice is more vulnerable to melting out in summer, this shift in sea ice age has contributed to the decreasing trend in minimum ice extent. Regionally, Bering Sea ice extent was at record lows for almost the entire 2017/18 ice season. For the Antarctic continent as a whole, 2018 was warmer than average. On the highest points of the Antarctic Plateau, the automatic weather station Relay (74°S) broke or tied six monthly temperature records throughout the year, with August breaking its record by nearly 8°C. However, cool conditions in the western Bellingshausen Sea and Amundsen Sea sector contributed to a low melt season overall for 2017/18. High SSTs contributed to low summer sea ice extent in the Ross and Weddell Seas in 2018, underpinning the second lowest Antarctic summer minimum sea ice extent on record. Despite conducive conditions for its formation, the ozone hole at its maximum extent in September was near the 2000–18 mean, likely due to an ongoing slow decline in stratospheric chlorine monoxide concentration. Across the oceans, globally averaged SST decreased slightly since the record El Niño year of 2016 but was still far above the climatological mean. On average, SST is increasing at a rate of 0.10° ± 0.01°C decade−1 since 1950. The warming appeared largest in the tropical Indian Ocean and smallest in the North Pacific. The deeper ocean continues to warm year after year. For the seventh consecutive year, global annual mean sea level became the highest in the 26-year record, rising to 81 mm above the 1993 average. As anticipated in a warming climate, the hydrological cycle over the ocean is accelerating: dry regions are becoming drier and wet regions rainier. Closer to the equator, 95 named tropical storms were observed during 2018, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. Eleven tropical cyclones reached Saffir–Simpson scale Category 5 intensity. North Atlantic Major Hurricane Michael’s landfall intensity of 140 kt was the fourth strongest for any continental U.S. hurricane landfall in the 168-year record. Michael caused more than 30 fatalities and $25 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages. In the western North Pacific, Super Typhoon Mangkhut led to 160 fatalities and$6 billion (U.S. dollars) in damages across the Philippines, Hong Kong, Macau, mainland China, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Tropical Storm Son-Tinh was responsible for 170 fatalities in Vietnam and Laos. Nearly all the islands of Micronesia experienced at least moderate impacts from various tropical cyclones. Across land, many areas around the globe received copious precipitation, notable at different time scales. Rodrigues and Réunion Island near southern Africa each reported their third wettest year on record. In Hawaii, 1262 mm precipitation at Waipā Gardens (Kauai) on 14–15 April set a new U.S. record for 24-h precipitation. In Brazil, the city of Belo Horizonte received nearly 75 mm of rain in just 20 minutes, nearly half its monthly average. Globally, fire activity during 2018 was the lowest since the start of the record in 1997, with a combined burned area of about 500 million hectares. This reinforced the long-term downward trend in fire emissions driven by changes in land use in frequently burning savannas. However, wildfires burned 3.5 million hectares across the United States, well above the 2000–10 average of 2.7 million hectares. Combined, U.S. wildfire damages for the 2017 and 2018 wildfire seasons exceeded $40 billion (U.S. dollars)

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO-Virgo Run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC-2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: A generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society