Dynamics and predictability of El Nino-Southern Oscillation: an Australian perspective on progress and challenges

Many scientific challenges remain for managing the risk of future ENSO impacts in countries like Australia that are strongly affected by ENSO event diversity

ENSO-Antarctica_scripts

<p>Analysis scripts for the manuscript Huguenin et al. (2023), "Subsurface warming of West Antarctic coastal waters linked to El Niño events"</p><p>See also <a href="https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10045880">10.5281/zenodo.10045880 </a>for the figure data and snapshot of the full model run of the same publication.</p&gt

ENSO-Antarctica_data

<p>Figure data and snapshot of full model data for "Subsurface warming of West Antarctic coastal waters linked to El Niño events"</p><p>See also <a href="https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.8041423">10.5281/zenodo.8041423 </a>for the analysis scripts of the same publication.</p&gt

mauricehuguenin/ENSO-Antarctica: ENSOAnt_scripts_and_fig_data

<p>Analysis scripts, Figure data and snapshot of full model data for the manuscript Huguenin et al. (2023), Subsurface warming of the West Antarctic continental shelf linked to El Niño-Southern Oscillation - after first review cycle.</p&gt

ACCESS-OM2 1° resolution global repeat decade full forcing interannual simulation data for 1972-2018

This data set contains the full forcing interannual simulation output from the global ocean-sea ice model ACCESS-OM2 in the 1° horizontal configuration over the period 1972-2018. This simulation was branched off from the repeat decade forcing spin-up and alongside the control simulation (see light blue and black lines in Fig. 1c in the publication linked below). The control simulation output can be found here: https://zenodo.org/record/8339578 The output here as well as in the control simulation is saved in sets of ten years (output200, output201, ...) in the ocean/ and ice/ folders as netcdf files. The last output folder contains the data for 2012-2018 with the last four years of this output folder (output204) are again the 1972-1975 period and should be omitted from any analysis. For more information on the spin-up and the model configuration, see the Methods section and Fig. 1 in Huguenin, M.F., Holmes, R.M. & England, M.H. Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century. Nat Commun 13, 4921 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32540-51Contact: Maurice F. Huguenin, UNSW Sydney, [email protected] Preferred citation: Huguenin, M.F., Holmes, R.M. & England, M.H. Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century. Nat Commun 13, 4921 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32540-

ACCESS-OM2 1° resolution global repeat decade forcing control simulation data for 1972-2018

This data set contains control simulation output from the global ocean-sea ice model ACCESS-OM2 in the 1° horizontal configuration over the period 1972-2018. The model was spun-up using modified repeat decade forcing for the period 1962-1971 to equilibrate the ocean to this period prior to most of the anthropogenic ocean heat uptake. This repeat decade forcing simulation was then continued up to present time and relabeled as the control simulation. The output is saved in sets of ten years (output200, output201, ...) in the ocean/ and ice/ folders as netcdf files. The last output folder contains the data for 2012-2018 with the last four years of this output folder (output204) are again the 1972-1975 period and should be omitted from any analysis. For more information on the spin-up and the model configuration, see the Methods section and Fig. 1 in Huguenin, M.F., Holmes, R.M. & England, M.H. Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century. Nat Commun 13, 4921 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32540-51Contact: Maurice F. Huguenin, UNSW Sydney, [email protected] Preferred citation: Huguenin, M.F., Holmes, R.M. & England, M.H. Drivers and distribution of global ocean heat uptake over the last half century. Nat Commun 13, 4921 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32540-

Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe

In recent summers, Europe experienced record‐breaking heatwaves, wildfires (in Northern Europe), and large‐scale water scarcity. Apart from anthropogenic warming, one contribution leading to such exceptionally hot weather was a weaker jet stream allowing a quasi‐stationary high‐pressure system to persist for many days. Here, we quantify changes in the frequency and persistence of the Central European large‐scale circulation types using various climate models. Independent of the circulation type, the models project warmer and drier future summer conditions in Central Europe, but no consistent shift to a more persistent summer or winter circulation. Most of the frequency and persistence changes are small and either within the internal variability or inconsistent across models. The model projections in this study do not support the claim of more persistent weather over Central Europe. Reconciling the results of different approaches and classifications is therefore critical to understand and predict changes in extreme weather over Europe.ISSN:0094-8276ISSN:1944-800