Second Thessalonians: Two Early Medieval Apocalyptic Commentaries

Apocalyptic speculation, in one form or another, is as persistent at the turn of this millennium as it was at the last. The commentaries of Haimo of Auxerre and Thietland of Einsiedeln offer glimpses of two links in [the] unbroken chain of the apocalyptic tradition.https://scholarworks.wmich.edu/mip_teamscs/1011/thumbnail.jp

Microplastics in the Antarctic marine system: An emerging area of research

It was thought that the Southern Ocean was relatively free of microplastic contamination; however, recent studies and citizen science projects in the Southern Ocean have reported microplastics in deep-sea sediments and surface waters. Here we reviewed available information on microplastics (including macroplastics as a source of microplastics) in the Southern Ocean. We estimated primary microplastic concentrations from personal care products and laundry, and identified potential sources and routes of transmission into the region. Estimates showed the levels of microplastic pollution released into the region from ships and scientific research stations were likely to be negligible at the scale of the Southern Ocean, but may be significant on a local scale. This was demonstrated by the detection of the first microplastics in shallow benthic sediments close to a number of research stations on King George Island. Furthermore, our predictions of primary microplastic concentrations from local sources were five orders of magnitude lower than levels reported in published sampling surveys (assuming an even dispersal at the ocean surface). Sea surface transfer from lower latitudes may contribute, at an as yet unknown level, to Southern Ocean plastic concentrations. Acknowledging the lack of data describing microplastic origins, concentrations, distribution and impacts in the Southern Ocean, we highlight the urgent need for research, and call for routine, standardised monitoring in the Antarctic marine system

Dynamical Wasserstein Barycenters for Time-series Modeling

Many time series can be modeled as a sequence of segments representing high-level discrete states, such as running and walking in a human activity application. Flexible models should describe the system state and observations in stationary "pure-state" periods as well as transition periods between adjacent segments, such as a gradual slowdown between running and walking. However, most prior work assumes instantaneous transitions between pure discrete states. We propose a dynamical Wasserstein barycentric (DWB) model that estimates the system state over time as well as the data-generating distributions of pure states in an unsupervised manner. Our model assumes each pure state generates data from a multivariate normal distribution, and characterizes transitions between states via displacement-interpolation specified by the Wasserstein barycenter. The system state is represented by a barycentric weight vector which evolves over time via a random walk on the simplex. Parameter learning leverages the natural Riemannian geometry of Gaussian distributions under the Wasserstein distance, which leads to improved convergence speeds. Experiments on several human activity datasets show that our proposed DWB model accurately learns the generating distribution of pure states while improving state estimation for transition periods compared to the commonly used linear interpolation mixture models.Comment: To appear at Neurips 202

Non-Parametric and Regularized Dynamical Wasserstein Barycenters for Time-Series Analysis

We consider probabilistic time-series models for systems that gradually transition among a finite number of states. We are particularly motivated by applications such as human activity analysis where the observed time-series contains segments representing distinct activities such as running or walking as well as segments characterized by continuous transition among these states. Accordingly, the dynamical Wasserstein barycenter (DWB) model introduced in Cheng et al. in 2021 [1] associates with each state, which we call a pure state, its own probability distribution, and models these continuous transitions with the dynamics of the barycentric weights that combine the pure state distributions via the Wasserstein barycenter. Here, focusing on the univariate case where Wasserstein distances and barycenters can be computed in closed form, we extend [1] by discussing two challenges associated with learning a DWB model and two improvements. First, we highlight the issue of uniqueness in identifying the model parameters. Secondly, we discuss the challenge of estimating a dynamically evolving distribution given a limited number of samples. The uncertainty associated with this estimation may cause a model's learned dynamics to not reflect the gradual transitions characteristic of the system. The first improvement introduces a regularization framework that addresses this uncertainty by imposing temporal smoothness on the dynamics of the barycentric weights while leveraging the understanding of the non-uniqueness of the problem. This is done without defining an entire stochastic model for the dynamics of the system as in [1]. Our second improvement lifts the Gaussian assumption on the pure states distributions in [1] by proposing a quantile-based non-parametric representation. We pose model estimation in a variational framework and propose a finite approximation to the infinite dimensional problem

Perioperative morbidity and mortality after transmyocardial laser revascularization: incidence and risk factors for adverse events

AbstractOBJECTIVESThe purpose of this study was to describe the incidence and spectrum of perioperative cardiac and noncardiac morbidity and mortality after transmyocardial laser revascularization (TMR) and to identify predictors of these adverse clinical events.BACKGROUNDClinical studies have demonstrated the efficacy of TMR for relieving angina pectoris, although no study to date has specifically addressed the associated perioperative morbidity and mortality.METHODSBetween October 1995 and August 1997, 34 consecutive patients with end-stage coronary artery disease (CAD) underwent isolated TMR. The majority of patients (94%) had class III or IV angina pectoris, and two patients (6%) had unstable symptoms preoperatively. Patient records were reviewed for fatal and nonfatal adverse cardiac and noncardiac events.RESULTSPerioperative death occurred in two patients (5.9%) due to cardiogenic shock complicating acute myocardial infarction. Perioperative cardiac morbidity occurred in 16 patients (47.1%); noncardiac morbidity was seen in 12 patients (35.3%). Preoperative unstable angina was the only variable predictive of perioperative death (p = 0.005). Cardiac (p = 0.005) and noncardiac (p < 0.001) morbidity rates were significantly higher for the initial 15 patients undergoing the procedure. Other predictors of perioperative complications included lack of postoperative treatment with a furosemide infusion (p ≤ 0.04) and preoperative unstable angina (p = 0.05).CONCLUSIONSPerioperative mortality in patients undergoing isolated TMR is low. Transmyocardial laser revascularization patients are at higher risk for adverse perioperative cardiac and noncardiac events, likely reflecting the lack of immediate benefit from the procedure in the setting of severe CAD. These patients merit vigilant surveillance for adverse events and aggressive medical management in the perioperative period