VIP: Incorporating Human Cognitive Biases in a Probabilistic Model of Retweeting

Information spread in social media depends on a number of factors, including how the site displays information, how users navigate it to find items of interest, users' tastes, and the `virality' of information, i.e., its propensity to be adopted, or retweeted, upon exposure. Probabilistic models can learn users' tastes from the history of their item adoptions and recommend new items to users. However, current models ignore cognitive biases that are known to affect behavior. Specifically, people pay more attention to items at the top of a list than those in lower positions. As a consequence, items near the top of a user's social media stream have higher visibility, and are more likely to be seen and adopted, than those appearing below. Another bias is due to the item's fitness: some items have a high propensity to spread upon exposure regardless of the interests of adopting users. We propose a probabilistic model that incorporates human cognitive biases and personal relevance in the generative model of information spread. We use the model to predict how messages containing URLs spread on Twitter. Our work shows that models of user behavior that account for cognitive factors can better describe and predict user behavior in social media.Comment: SBP 201

Economics-Based Optimization of Unstable Flows

As an example for the optimization of unstable flows, we present an economics-based method for deciding the optimal rates at which vehicles are allowed to enter a highway. It exploits the naturally occuring fluctuations of traffic flow and is flexible enough to adapt in real time to the transient flow characteristics of road traffic. Simulations based on realistic parameter values show that this strategy is feasible for naturally occurring traffic, and that even far from optimality, injection policies can improve traffic flow. Moreover, the same method can be applied to the optimization of flows of gases and granular media.Comment: Revised version of ``Optimizing Traffic Flow'' (cond-mat/9809397). For related work see http://www.parc.xerox.com/dynamics/ and http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.htm

Maximum flow and topological structure of complex networks

The problem of sending the maximum amount of flow $q$ between two arbitrary nodes $s$ and $t$ of complex networks along links with unit capacity is studied, which is equivalent to determining the number of link-disjoint paths between $s$ and $t$. The average of $q$ over all node pairs with smaller degree $k_{\rm min}$ is $_{k_{\rm min}} \simeq c k_{\rm min}$ for large $k_{\rm min}$ with $c$ a constant implying that the statistics of $q$ is related to the degree distribution of the network. The disjoint paths between hub nodes are found to be distributed among the links belonging to the same edge-biconnected component, and $q$ can be estimated by the number of pairs of edge-biconnected links incident to the start and terminal node. The relative size of the giant edge-biconnected component of a network approximates to the coefficient $c$. The applicability of our results to real world networks is tested for the Internet at the autonomous system level.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure

Quantum Portfolios

Quantum computation holds promise for the solution of many intractable problems. However, since many quantum algorithms are stochastic in nature they can only find the solution of hard problems probabilistically. Thus the efficiency of the algorithms has to be characterized both by the expected time to completion {\it and} the associated variance. In order to minimize both the running time and its uncertainty, we show that portfolios of quantum algorithms analogous to those of finance can outperform single algorithms when applied to the NP-complete problems such as 3-SAT.Comment: revision includes additional data and corrects minor typo

Effects of aging and links removal on epidemic dynamics in scale-free networks

We study the combined effects of aging and links removal on epidemic dynamics in the Barab\'{a}si-Albert scale-free networks. The epidemic is described by a susceptible-infected-refractory (SIR) model. The aging effect of a node introduced at time $t_{i}$ is described by an aging factor of the form $(t-t_{i})^{-\beta}$ in the probability of being connected to newly added nodes in a growing network under the preferential attachment scheme based on popularity of the existing nodes. SIR dynamics is studied in networks with a fraction $1-p$ of the links removed. Extensive numerical simulations reveal that there exists a threshold $p_{c}$ such that for $p \geq p_{c}$, epidemic breaks out in the network. For $p < p_{c}$, only a local spread results. The dependence of $p_{c}$ on $\beta$ is studied in detail. The function $p_{c}(\beta)$ separates the space formed by $\beta$ and $p$ into regions corresponding to local and global spreads, respectively.Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, revtex, corrected Ref.[11

Spatial prisoner's dilemma game with volunteering in Newman-Watts small-world networks

A modified spatial prisoner's dilemma game with voluntary participation in Newman-Watts small-world networks is studied. Some reasonable ingredients are introduced to the game evolutionary dynamics: each agent in the network is a pure strategist and can only take one of three strategies (\emph {cooperator}, \emph {defector}, and \emph {loner}); its strategical transformation is associated with both the number of strategical states and the magnitude of average profits, which are adopted and acquired by its coplayers in the previous round of play; a stochastic strategy mutation is applied when it gets into the trouble of \emph {local commons} that the agent and its neighbors are in the same state and get the same average payoffs. In the case of very low temptation to defect, it is found that agents are willing to participate in the game in typical small-world region and intensive collective oscillations arise in more random region.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

Traffic flow on realistic road networks with adaptive traffic lights

We present a model of traffic flow on generic urban road networks based on cellular automata. We apply this model to an existing road network in the Australian city of Melbourne, using empirical data as input. For comparison, we also apply this model to a square-grid network using hypothetical input data. On both networks we compare the effects of non-adaptive vs adaptive traffic lights, in which instantaneous traffic state information feeds back into the traffic signal schedule. We observe that not only do adaptive traffic lights result in better averages of network observables, they also lead to significantly smaller fluctuations in these observables. We furthermore compare two different systems of adaptive traffic signals, one which is informed by the traffic state on both upstream and downstream links, and one which is informed by upstream links only. We find that, in general, both the mean and the fluctuation of the travel time are smallest when using the joint upstream-downstream control strategy.Comment: 41 pages, pdflate

Kink Solution in a Fluid Model of Traffic Flows

Traffic jam in a fluid model of traffic flows proposed by Kerner and Konh\"auser (B. S. Kerner and P. Konh\"auser, Phys. Rev. E 52 (1995), 5574.) is analyzed. An analytic scaling solution is presented near the critical point of the hetero-clinic bifurcation. The validity of the solution has been confirmed from the comparison with the simulation of the model.Comment: RevTeX v3.1, 6 pages, and 2 figure

Gatekeeping Twitter: Message diffusion in political hashtags

This article explores the structure of gatekeeping in Twitter by means of a statistical analysis of the political hashtags #FreeIran, #FreeVenezuela and #Jan25, each of which reached the top position in Twitter Trending Topics. We performed a statistical correlation analysis on nine variables of the dataset to evaluate if message replication in Twitter political hashtags was correlated with network topology. Our results suggest an alternative scenario to the dominant view regarding gatekeeping in Twitter political hashtags. Instead of depending on hubs that act as gatekeepers, we found that the intense activity of individuals with relatively few connections is capable of generating highly replicated messages that contributed to Trending Topics without relying on the activity of user hubs. The results support the thesis of social consensus through the influence of committed minorities, which states that a prevailing majority opinion in a population can be rapidly reversed by a small fraction of randomly distributed committed agents

Coherent Moving States in Highway Traffic (Originally: Moving Like a Solid Block)

Recent advances in multiagent simulations have made possible the study of realistic traffic patterns and allow to test theories based on driver behaviour. Such simulations also display various empirical features of traffic flows, and are used to design traffic controls that maximise the throughput of vehicles in heavily transited highways. In addition to its intrinsic economic value, vehicular traffic is of interest because it may throw light on some social phenomena where diverse individuals competitively try to maximise their own utilities under certain constraints. In this paper, we present simulation results that point to the existence of cooperative, coherent states arising from competitive interactions that lead to a new phenomenon in heterogeneous highway traffic. As the density of vehicles increases, their interactions cause a transition into a highly correlated state in which all vehicles practically move with the same speed, analogous to the motion of a solid block. This state is associated with a reduced lane changing rate and a safe, high and stable flow. It disappears as the vehicle density exceeds a critical value. The effect is observed in recent evaluations of Dutch traffic data.Comment: Submitted on April 21, 1998. For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.html and http://www.parc.xerox.com/dynamics