Enhanced equal frequency partition method for the identification of a water demand system

This paper deals with unsupervised partitioning. A first goal of this paper is to present an enhancement to the Equal Frequency Partition (EFP) method that allows to reduce, to some extent, the main drawback of this classical classification method, i.e. the data distribution dependency. A second goal of this work is to use the Enhanced Equal Frequency Partition (EEFP) method within the discretization process of the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR) methodology for the identification of a model of a water demand system. It is shown that use of the EEFP method allows to obtain more accurate FIR models of the water demand system, reducing the prediction errors.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Omecamtiv mecarbil in chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction, GALACTIC‐HF: baseline characteristics and comparison with contemporary clinical trials

Aims: The safety and efficacy of the novel selective cardiac myosin activator, omecamtiv mecarbil, in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) is tested in the Global Approach to Lowering Adverse Cardiac outcomes Through Improving Contractility in Heart Failure (GALACTIC‐HF) trial. Here we describe the baseline characteristics of participants in GALACTIC‐HF and how these compare with other contemporary trials. Methods and Results: Adults with established HFrEF, New York Heart Association functional class (NYHA) ≥ II, EF ≤35%, elevated natriuretic peptides and either current hospitalization for HF or history of hospitalization/ emergency department visit for HF within a year were randomized to either placebo or omecamtiv mecarbil (pharmacokinetic‐guided dosing: 25, 37.5 or 50 mg bid). 8256 patients [male (79%), non‐white (22%), mean age 65 years] were enrolled with a mean EF 27%, ischemic etiology in 54%, NYHA II 53% and III/IV 47%, and median NT‐proBNP 1971 pg/mL. HF therapies at baseline were among the most effectively employed in contemporary HF trials. GALACTIC‐HF randomized patients representative of recent HF registries and trials with substantial numbers of patients also having characteristics understudied in previous trials including more from North America (n = 1386), enrolled as inpatients (n = 2084), systolic blood pressure < 100 mmHg (n = 1127), estimated glomerular filtration rate < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (n = 528), and treated with sacubitril‐valsartan at baseline (n = 1594). Conclusions: GALACTIC‐HF enrolled a well‐treated, high‐risk population from both inpatient and outpatient settings, which will provide a definitive evaluation of the efficacy and safety of this novel therapy, as well as informing its potential future implementation

Reconstruction analysis-based algorithm to decompose a complex system into subsystems

Two previous papers [Mirats et al. (2002a) On the selection of variables for Qualitative Modelling of Dynamical Systems, International Journal of General Systems 31(5) pp. 435–467; Mirats et al. (2002b) Variable selection procedures and efficient suboptimal mask search algorithms in Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning, International Journal of General Systems 31(5), pp. 469–498] were devoted to the selection of a set of variables that can best be used to model (reconstruct) a given output variable, whereby only static relations were analysed. Yet even after reducing the set of variables in this fashion, the number of remaining variables may still be formidable for large-scale systems. The present paper aims at tackling this problem by discovering substructures within the whole set of the system variables. Hence whereas previous research dealt with the problem of model reduction by means of reducing the set of variables to be considered for modelling, the present paper focuses on model structuring as a means to subdivide the overall modelling task into subtasks that are hopefully easier to handle. The second and third sections analyse this problem from a system-theoretic perspective, presenting the reconstruction analysis (RA) methodology, an informational approach to the problem of decomposing a large-scale system into subsystems. The fourth section uses the fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR) methodology to find a possible structure of a system. The study performed in this paper only considers static relations.Peer Reviewe

Variable selection procedures and efficient suboptimal mask search algorithms in fuzzy inductive reasoning

This paper describes two new suboptimal mask search algorithms for Fuzzy inductive reasoning (FIR), a technique for modelling dynamic systems from observations of their input/output behaviour. Inductive modelling is by its very nature an optimisation problem. Modelling large-scale systems in this fashion involves solving a high-dimensional optimisation problem, a task that invariably carries a high computational cost. Suboptimal search algorithms are therefore important. One of the two proposed algorithms is a new variant of a directed hill-climbing method. The other algorithm is a statistical technique based on spectral coherence functions. The utility of the two techniques is demonstrated by means of an industrial example. A garbage incinerator process is inductively modelled from observations of 20 variable trajectories. Both suboptimal search algorithms lead to similarly good models. Each of the algorithms carries a computational cost that is in the order of a few percent of the cost of solving the complete optimisation problem. Both algorithms can also be used to filter out variables of lesser importance, i.e. they can be used as variable selection tools.Peer Reviewe

Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning Model-Based Fault Detection Applied to a Commercial Aircraft

This paper concentrates on progress made in fault detection using the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR) methodology. The so-called envelope approach is presented and compared with previous research efforts published by the same group in SIMULATION in 1989 and 1994. The comparison is achieved simulating faults in a B-747 commercial aircraft, the same example that had been used in the previous publications. The previously used crisp detection has been replaced by a new approach, based on the computation of an acceptability interval for each predicted variable. The paper demonstrates the improved capabilities of the new approach to detect faults earlier and in a more reliable manner.This work was supported by the project 'Seguridad de funcionamiento en sistemas dinámicos complejos' (J-00289).Peer Reviewe

On the selection of variables for qualitative modelling of dynamical systems

Behavioural modelling of physical systems from observations of their input/output behaviour is an important task in engineering. Such models are needed for fault monitoring as well as intelligent control of these systems. The paper addresses one subtask of behavioural modelling, namely the selection of input variables to be used in predicting the behaviour of an output variable. A technique that is well suited for qualitative behavioural modelling and simulation of physical systems is Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR), a methodology based on General System Theory. Yet, the FIR modelling methodology is of exponential computational complexity, and therefore, it may be useful to consider other approaches as booster techniques for FIR. Different variable selection algorithms: the method of the unreconstructed variance for the best reconstruction, methods based on regression coefficients (OLS, PCR and PLS) and other methods as Multiple Correlation Coefficients (MCC), Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Cluster analysis are discussed and compared to each other for use in predicting the behaviour of a steam generator. The different variable selection algorithms previously named are then used as booster techniques for FIR. Some of the used linear techniques have been found to be non-effective in the task of selecting variables in order to compute a posterior FIR model. Methods based on clustering seem particularly well suited for pre-selecting subsets of variables to be used in a FIR modelling and simulation effort.The research reported in this article was made possible, thanks to a Ph.D. fellowship of the Ministry for Education and Culture from the Spanish Government funded within the frame of the TAP96-0882 project.Peer Reviewe

Enhanced equal frequency partition method for the identification of a water demand system

This paper deals with unsupervised partitioning. A first goal of this paper is to present an enhancement to the Equal Frequency Partition (EFP) method that allows to reduce, to some extent, the main drawback of this classical classification method, i.e. the data distribution dependency. A second goal of this work is to use the Enhanced Equal Frequency Partition (EEFP) method within the discretization process of the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR) methodology for the identification of a model of a water demand system. It is shown that use of the EEFP method allows to obtain more accurate FIR models of the water demand system, reducing the prediction errors.Peer Reviewe

Enhanced equal frequency partition method for the identification of a water demand system

This paper deals with unsupervised partitioning. A first goal of this paper is to present an enhancement to the Equal Frequency Partition (EFP) method that allows to reduce, to some extent, the main drawback of this classical classification method, i.e. the data distribution dependency. A second goal of this work is to use the Enhanced Equal Frequency Partition (EEFP) method within the discretization process of the Fuzzy Inductive Reasoning (FIR) methodology for the identification of a model of a water demand system. It is shown that use of the EEFP method allows to obtain more accurate FIR models of the water demand system, reducing the prediction errors.Peer Reviewe

Apixaban compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation and previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack: A subgroup analysis of the ARISTOTLE trial

Background: In the ARISTOTLE trial, the rate of stroke or systemic embolism was reduced by apixaban compared with warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Patients with AF and previous stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) have a high risk of stroke. We therefore aimed to assess the efficacy and safety of apixaban compared with warfarin in prespecified subgroups of patients with and without previous stroke or TIA. Methods: Between Dec 19, 2006, and April 2, 2010, patients were enrolled in the ARISTOTLE trial at 1034 clinical sites in 39 countries. 18 201 patients with AF or atrial flutter were randomly assigned to receive apixaban 5 mg twice daily or warfarin (target international normalised ratio 2·0-3·0). The median duration of follow-up was 1·8 years (IQR 1·4-2·3). The primary efficacy outcome was stroke or systemic embolism, analysed by intention to treat. The primary safety outcome was major bleeding in the on-treatment population. All participants, investigators, and sponsors were masked to treatment assignments. In this subgroup analysis, we estimated event rates and used Cox models to compare outcomes in patients with and without previous stroke or TIA. The ARISTOTLE trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NTC00412984. Findings: Of the trial population, 3436 (19%) had a previous stroke or TIA. In the subgroup of patients with previous stroke or TIA, the rate of stroke or systemic embolism was 2·46 per 100 patient-years of follow-up in the apixaban group and 3·24 in the warfarin group (hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 95% CI 0·56 to 1·03); in the subgroup of patients without previous stroke or TIA, the rate of stroke or systemic embolism was 1·01 per 100 patient-years of follow-up with apixaban and 1·23 with warfarin (HR 0·82, 95% CI 0·65 to 1·03; p for interaction=0·71). The absolute reduction in the rate of stroke and systemic embolism with apixaban versus warfarin was 0·77 per 100 patient-years of follow-up (95% CI -0·08 to 1·63) in patients with and 0·22 (-0·03 to 0·47) in those without previous stroke or TIA. The difference in major bleeding with apixaban compared with warfarin was 1·07 per 100 patient-years (95% CI 0·09-2·04) in patients with and 0·93 (0·54-1·32) in those without previous stroke or TIA. Interpretation: The effects of apixaban versus warfarin were consistent in patients with AF with and without previous stroke or TIA. Owing to the higher risk of these outcomes in patients with previous stroke or TIA, the absolute benefits of apixaban might be greater in this population. Funding: Bristol-Myers Squibb and Pfizer. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd

Apixaban versus warfarin in patients with atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND: Vitamin K antagonists are highly effective in preventing stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation but have several limitations. Apixaban is a novel oral direct factor Xa inhibitor that has been shown to reduce the risk of stroke in a similar population in comparison with aspirin. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind trial, we compared apixaban (at a dose of 5 mg twice daily) with warfarin (target international normalized ratio, 2.0 to 3.0) in 18,201 patients with atrial fibrillation and at least one additional risk factor for stroke. The primary outcome was ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke or systemic embolism. The trial was designed to test for noninferiority, with key secondary objectives of testing for superiority with respect to the primary outcome and to the rates of major bleeding and death from any cause. RESULTS: The median duration of follow-up was 1.8 years. The rate of the primary outcome was 1.27% per year in the apixaban group, as compared with 1.60% per year in the warfarin group (hazard ratio with apixaban, 0.79; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66 to 0.95; P<0.001 for noninferiority; P = 0.01 for superiority). The rate of major bleeding was 2.13% per year in the apixaban group, as compared with 3.09% per year in the warfarin group (hazard ratio, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.60 to 0.80; P<0.001), and the rates of death from any cause were 3.52% and 3.94%, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% CI, 0.80 to 0.99; P = 0.047). The rate of hemorrhagic stroke was 0.24% per year in the apixaban group, as compared with 0.47% per year in the warfarin group (hazard ratio, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.35 to 0.75; P<0.001), and the rate of ischemic or uncertain type of stroke was 0.97% per year in the apixaban group and 1.05% per year in the warfarin group (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.74 to 1.13; P = 0.42). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with atrial fibrillation, apixaban was superior to warfarin in preventing stroke or systemic embolism, caused less bleeding, and resulted in lower mortality. Copyright © 2011 Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved