Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Ph.DDOCTOR OF PHILOSOPH

Examining Road Traffic Mortality Status in China: A Simulation Study

Background Data from the Chinese police service suggest substantial reductions in road traffic injuries since 2002, but critics have questioned the accuracy of those data, especially considering conflicting data reported by the health department. Methods To address the gap between police and health department data and to determine which may be more accurate, we conducted a simulation study based on the modified Smeed equation, which delineates a non-linear relation between road traffic mortality and the level of motorization in a country or region. Our goal was to simulate trends in road traffic mortality in China and compare performances in road traffic safety management between China and 13 other countries. Results Chinese police data indicate a peak in road traffic mortalities in 2002 and a significant and a gradual decrease in population-based road traffic mortality since 2002. Health department data show the road traffic mortality peaked in 2012. In addition, police data suggest China’s road traffic mortality peaked at a much lower motorization level (0.061 motor vehicles per person) in 2002, followed by a reduction in mortality to a level comparable to that of developed countries. Simulation results based on health department data suggest high road traffic mortality, with a mortality peak in 2012 at a moderate motorization level (0.174 motor vehicles per person). Comparisons to the other 13 countries suggest the health data from China may be more valid than the police data. Conclusion Our simulation data indicate China is still at a stage of high road traffic mortality, as suggested by health data, rather than a stage of low road traffic mortality, as suggested by police data. More efforts are needed to integrate safety into road design, improve road traffic management, improve data quality, and alter unsafe behaviors of pedestrians, drivers and passengers in China

Analyzing drivers’ preferences and choices for the content and format of variable message signs (VMS)

Background Recent advance in variable message signs (VMS) technology has made it viable to provide spatio-temporal information on traffic and network conditions to drivers. There is a debate whether VMS diverts drivers’ attention away from the road and may cause unnecessary distraction in their driving tasks due to inconsistent VMS contents and formats. There are also other external factors such as weather conditions, visibility and time of day that may affect the integrity and reliability of the VMS. In China, only about 23% drivers were persuaded by VMS to follow route diversion. Objective In order to capture the full benefits of VMS, the aim of this paper is therefore to identify the factors affecting VMS by examining what kinds of VMS contents, formats and their interactions are more preferable to drivers, specifically in China. Methods A revealed preference (RP) questionnaire and stated preference (SP) survey consisting of 1154 samples from private and taxi drivers was conducted and analyzed using discrete choice model. Results The results revealed that the information showed by amber-on-black on text format, white-on-blue on graph format or the suggested route diversion information showed by single line are preferred by drivers in fog weather. In addition, highly educated drivers or drivers with no occupation are more prone to the qualitative delay time on a text-graph format in fog weather. In normal weather, drivers with working trip purpose are mostly preferred to receive the information on a congested traffic condition with a reason on a text-only format. However, the congested traffic condition along with the information on the apparent causes shown by red-on-black or green-on-black on a text-only format was least preferred by drivers. Regarding current and adjacent road traffic information, drivers prefer to receive the suggested route diversion on a graph-only format in fog weather and the qualitative delay time on a text-graph format in normal weather. Irrespective to weather conditions, male drivers incline to the qualitative delay time on a text-graph format. Conclusions The findings of this study could assist traffic authorities to design the most acceptable VMS for displaying traffic information for the purpose of improving road traffic efficiency and provide the theory evidence for the design of in-vehicle personalized information service system

A spatial-state-based omni-directional collision warning system for intelligent vehicles

Collision warning systems (CWSs) have been recognized as effective tools in preventing vehicle collisions. Existing systems mainly provide safety warnings based on single-directional approaches, such as rear-end, lateral, and forward collision warnings. Such systems cannot provide omni-directorial enhancements on driver’s perception. Meanwhile, due to the unclear and overlapped activation areas of above single-directional CWSs, multiple kinds of warnings may be triggered mistakenly for a collision. The multi-triggering may confuse drivers about the position of dangerous targets. To this end, this paper develops a spatial-state-based omni-directional collision warning system (S-OCWS), aiming to help drivers identify the specific danger by providing the unique warning. First, the operational domains of rear-end, lateral, and forward collisions are theoretically distinguished. This distinction is attained by a geometric approach with a rigorous mathematical derivation, based on the spatial states and the relative motion states of itself and the target vehicle in real time. Then, a theoretical omni-directional collision warning model is established using time-to-collision (TTC) to clarify activation conditions for different collision warnings. Finally, the effectiveness of the S-OCWS is validated in field tests. Results indicate that the S-OCWS can help drivers quickly and properly respond to the warnings without compromising their control over lateral offsets. In particular, the probability of drivers giving proper responses to FCW doubles when the S-OCWS is on, compared to when the system is off. In addition, the S-OCWS shortens the responses time of nonprofessional drivers, and therefore enhances their safety in driving

Modeling fault among motorcyclists involved in crashes

Singapore crash statistics from 2001 to 2006 show that the motorcyclist fatality and injury rates per registered vehicle are higher than those of other motor vehicles by 13 and 7 times respectively. The crash involvement rate of motorcyclists as victims of other road users is also about 43%. The objective of this study is to identify the factors that contribute to the fault of motorcyclists involved in crashes. This is done by using the binary logit model to differentiate between at-fault and not-at-fault cases and the analysis is further categorized by the location of the crashes, i.e., at intersections, on expressways and at non-intersections. A number of explanatory variables representing roadway characteristics, environmental factors, motorcycle descriptions, and rider demographics have been evaluated. Time trend effect shows that not-at-fault crash involvement of motorcyclists has increased with time. The likelihood of night time crashes has also increased for not-at-fault crashes at intersections and expressways. The presence of surveillance cameras is effective in reducing not-at-fault crashes at intersections. Wet road surfaces increase at-fault crash involvement at non-intersections. At intersections, not-at-fault crash involvement is more likely on single lane roads or on median lane of multi-lane roads, while on expressways at-fault crash involvement is more likely on the median lane. Roads with higher speed limit have higher at-fault crash involvement and this is also true on expressways. Motorcycles with pillion passengers or with higher engine capacity have higher likelihood of being at-fault in crashes on expressways. Motorcyclists are more likely to be at-fault in collisions involving pedestrians and this effect is higher at night. In multi-vehicle crashes, motorcyclists are more likely to be victims than at fault. Young and older riders are more likely to be at-fault in crashes than middle-aged group of riders. The findings of this study will help to develop more targeted countermeasures to improve motorcycle safety and more cost-effective safety awareness program in motorcyclist training

Bayesian hierarchical analysis on crash prediction models

Traditional crash prediction models, such as generalized linear regression models, are incapable of taking into account the multilevel data structure, which extensively exists in crash data. Disregarding the possible within-group correlations can lead to the production of models giving unreliable and biased estimates of unknowns. This study innovatively proposes a -level hierarchy, viz. (Geographic region level – Traffic site level – Traffic crash level – Driver-vehicle unit level – Vehicle-occupant level) Time level, to establish a general form of multilevel data structure in traffic safety analysis. To properly model the potential cross-group heterogeneity due to the multilevel data structure, a framework of Bayesian hierarchical models that explicitly specify multilevel structure and correctly yield parameter estimates is introduced and recommended. The proposed method is illustrated in an individual-severity analysis of intersection crashes using the Singapore crash records. This study proved the importance of accounting for the within-group correlations and demonstrated the flexibilities and effectiveness of the Bayesian hierarchical method in modeling multilevel structure of traffic crash data

Measuring Accessibility Based on Improved Impedance and Attractive Functions Using Taxi Trajectory Data

Accessibility has attracted wide interest from urban planners and transportation engineers. It is an important indicator to support the development of sustainable policies for transportation systems in major events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. Taxis are a vital travel mode in urban areas that provide door-to-door services for individuals to perform urban activities. This study, with taxi trajectory data, proposes an improved method to evaluate dynamic accessibility depending on traditional location-based measures. A new impedance function is introduced by taking characteristics of the taxi system into account, such as passenger waiting time and the taxi fare rule. An improved attraction function is formulated by considering dynamic availability intensity. Besides, we generate five accessibility scenarios containing different indicators to compare the variation of accessibility. A case study is conducted with the data from Shenzhen, China. The results show that the proposed method found reduced urban accessibility, but with a higher value in southern center areas during the evening peak period due to short passenger waiting time and high destination attractiveness. Each spatio-temporal indicator has an influence on the variation in accessibility

What Can Be Learned From Us Road Safety Practice: A Research Perspective

Despite a higher level of motorization, the roads in the US are significantly safer than those in China. Such a difference partially results from much advanced road safety research and their scientific implementations of the research results. In the past decade, a series of nationwide strategies have been developed to improve the road safety in the US. There are many invaluable experiences in the process of addressing road safety that may be useful for China to formulate its own strategies in road safety investment and research. Following a presentation on the state of the art and the practice of US road safety, this study attempts to reveal some key strategic issues to improve safety from a perspective of research. © 2010 ASCE

Modeling random effect and excess zeros in road traffic accident prediction

Poisson distribution has often been used for count like accident data. Negative Binomial (NB) distribution has been adopted in the count data to take care of the over-dispersion problem. However, Poisson and NB distributions are incapable of taking into account some unobserved heterogeneities due to spatial and temporal effects of accident data. To overcome this problem, Random Effect models have been developed. Again another challenge with existing traffic accident prediction models is the distribution of excess zero accident observations in some accident data. Although Zero-Inflated Poisson (ZIP) model is capable of handling the dual-state system in accident data with excess zero observations, it does not accommodate the within-location correlation and between-location correlation heterogeneities which are the basic motivations for the need of the Random Effect models. This paper proposes an effective way of fitting ZIP model with location specific random effects and for model calibration and assessment the Bayesian analysis is recommended

Modeling Road Traffic Crashes With Zero-Inflation And Site-Specific Random Effects

Zero-inflated count models are increasingly employed in many fields in case of zero-inflation . In modeling road traffic crashes, it has also shown to be useful in obtaining a better model-fitting when zero crash counts are over-presented. However, the general specification of zero-inflated model can not account for the multilevel data structure in crash data, which may be an important source of over-dispersion. This paper examines zero-inflated Poisson regression with site-specific random effects (REZIP) with comparison to random effect Poisson model and standard zero-inflated poison model. A practical and flexible procedure, using Bayesian inference with Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and cross-validation predictive density techniques, is applied for model calibration and suitability assessment. Using crash data in Singapore (1998-2005), the illustrative results demonstrate that the REZIP model may significantly improve the model-fitting and predictive performance of crash prediction models. This improvement can contribute to traffic safety management and engineering practices such as countermeasure design and safety evaluation of traffic treatments. © 2010 Springer-Verlag