Numerical study of separated boundary layer transition under pressure gradient

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is conducted to study the transition process of a separated boundary layer on a flat plate with an elliptical leading edge. A streamwise pressure distribution is imposed and the free stream turbulence intensity is 3% to mimic the suction surface of a low-pressure turbine (LPT) blade. A dynamic sub-grid scale model is employed in the study and the current LES results compare well with available experimental data and previous LES results. The transition process has been analysed with a particular focus on primary instabilities at work. Streaky structures further upstream of the separation, known as the Klebanoff Streaks, have been observed. Typical two-dimensional Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) rolls are distorted in the separated region. When Klebanoff streaks passing over a full-span K-H roll, portion of the two-dimensional roll merges with the Klebanoff streaks and develop into chaotic three-dimensional structures, whereas the remaining undisrupted two-dimensional K-H rolls develop into Λ-vortex indicating that despite the disturbances before separation, the K-H instability may still be the main instability at work

Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly

FACE: Evaluating Natural Language Generation with Fourier Analysis of Cross-Entropy

Measuring the distance between machine-produced and human language is a critical open problem. Inspired by empirical findings from psycholinguistics on the periodicity of entropy in language, we propose FACE, a set of metrics based on Fourier Analysis of the estimated Cross-Entropy of language, for measuring the similarity between model-generated and human-written languages. Based on an open-ended generation task and the experimental data from previous studies, we find that FACE can effectively identify the human-model gap, scales with model size, reflects the outcomes of different sampling methods for decoding, correlates well with other evaluation metrics and with human judgment scores. FACE is computationally efficient and provides intuitive interpretations

Time-series modeling and prediction of global monthly absolute temperature for environmental decision making

A generalized, structural, time series modeling framework was developed to analyze the monthly records of absolute surface temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using a deterministicstochastic combined (DSC) approach. Although the development of the framework was based on the characterization of the variation patterns of a global dataset, the methodology could be applied to any monthly absolute temperature record. Deterministic processes were used to characterize the variation patterns of the global trend and the cyclic oscillations of the temperature signal, involving polynomial functions and the Fourier method, respectively, while stochastic processes were employed to account for any remaining patterns in the temperature signal, involving seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models. A prediction of the monthly global surface temperature during the second decade of the 21st century using the DSC model shows that the global temperature will likely continue to rise at twice the average rate of the past 150 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that DSC models perform systematically well against selected models of other authors, suggesting that DSC models, when coupled with other ecoenvironmental models, can be used as a supplemental tool for short-term (similar to 10-year) environmental planning and decision making

Adopting higher-yielding varieties to ensure Chinese food security under climate change in 2050

AbstractChallenges of ensuring food security under climate change require urgent and substantial increase in the focus of research, innovation, transformation of knowledge, and rapid adoption of available technologies. Here we simulate the effects of the adoption of higher-yielding varieties of rice, wheat and maize crops into the food production systems on China's food security index (FSI, or relative food surplus per capita) in 2050, using the CERES crop models, climate change and a range of socio- economic and agronomic scenarios which were developed following two contrasting development pathways in line with the IPCC A2 and B2 emission scenarios, respectively. The obtained results predict a slightly positive effect of climate change on the FSI, but the magnitude of this positive effect cannot compensate the negative effects of population growth, urbanization rate and the rising affluence on the future trends of the FSI. The outcomes of the adoption of higher-yielding varieties show that a systematic adoption of higher-yielding varieties can raise the average FSI values by a margin of 16 and 27 units under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, during the 2030-2050 period, compared to the average predicted FSI values of -2 and 8 percentage points under A2 and B2 during the same period. This suggests that systematic adoption of higher-yield varieties is an effective measure for Chinese agriculture not only to ensure food security but also to build adaptive capacity to climate change in 2050

Numerical study of separated boundary layer transition under pressure gradient

Large-eddy simulation (LES) is conducted to study the transition process of a separated boundary layer on a flat plate with an elliptical leading edge. A streamwise pressure distribution is imposed and the free stream turbulence intensity is 3% to mimic the suction surface of a low-pressure turbine (LPT) blade. A dynamic sub-grid scale model is employed in the study and the current LES results compare well with available experimental data and previous LES results. The transition process has been analysed with a particular focus on primary instabilities at work. Streaky structures further upstream of the separation, known as the Klebanoff Streaks, have been observed. Typical two-dimensional Kelvin-Helmholtz (K-H) rolls are distorted in the separated region. When Klebanoff streaks passing over a full-span K-H roll, portion of the two-dimensional roll merges with the Klebanoff streaks and develop into chaotic three-dimensional structures, whereas the remaining undisrupted two-dimensional K-H rolls develop into Λ-vortex indicating that despite the disturbances before separation, the K-H instability may still be the main instability at work.Papers presented to the 12th International Conference on Heat Transfer, Fluid Mechanics and Thermodynamics, Costa de Sol, Spain on 11-13 July 2016