Temperature Changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 Based on Multiple Datasets

The arid and semiarid region in central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to climate variations. However, the sparse and highly unevenly distributed meteorological stations in the region provide limited data for understanding of the region’s climate variations. In this study, the near-surface air temperature change in central Asia from 1979 to 2011 was examined using observations from 81 meteorological stations, three local observation validated reanalysis datasets of relatively high spatial resolutions, and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset. Major results suggested that the three reanalysis datasets match well with most of the local climate records, especially in the low-lying plain areas. The consensus of the multiple datasets showed significant regional surface air temperature increases of 0.36°–0.42°Cdecade-1 in the past 33 years. No significant contributions from declining irrigation and urbanization to temperature change were found. The rate is larger in recent years than in the early years in the study period. Additionally, unlike in many regions in the world, the temperature in winter showed no increase in central Asia in the last three decades, a noticeable departure from the global trend in the twentieth century. The largest increase in surface temperature was occurring in the spring season. Analyses further showed a warming center in the middle of the central Asian states and weakened temperature variability along the northwest–southeast temperature gradient from the northern Kazakhstan to southern Xinjiang. The reanalysis datasets also showed significant negative correlations between temperature increase rate and elevation in this complex terrain region

Temperature Changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 Based on Multiple Datasets

The arid and semiarid region in central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to climate variations. However, the sparse and highly unevenly distributed meteorological stations in the region provide limited data for understanding of the region’s climate variations. In this study, the near-surface air temperature change in central Asia from 1979 to 2011 was examined using observations from 81 meteorological stations, three local observation validated reanalysis datasets of relatively high spatial resolutions, and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset. Major results suggested that the three reanalysis datasets match well with most of the local climate records, especially in the low-lying plain areas. The consensus of the multiple datasets showed significant regional surface air temperature increases of 0.36°–0.42°Cdecade-1 in the past 33 years. No significant contributions from declining irrigation and urbanization to temperature change were found. The rate is larger in recent years than in the early years in the study period. Additionally, unlike in many regions in the world, the temperature in winter showed no increase in central Asia in the last three decades, a noticeable departure from the global trend in the twentieth century. The largest increase in surface temperature was occurring in the spring season. Analyses further showed a warming center in the middle of the central Asian states and weakened temperature variability along the northwest–southeast temperature gradient from the northern Kazakhstan to southern Xinjiang. The reanalysis datasets also showed significant negative correlations between temperature increase rate and elevation in this complex terrain region

Temperature Changes in Central Asia from 1979 to 2011 Based on Multiple Datasets

The arid and semiarid region in central Asia is sensitive and vulnerable to climate variations. However, the sparse and highly unevenly distributed meteorological stations in the region provide limited data for understanding of the region’s climate variations. In this study, the near-surface air temperature change in central Asia from 1979 to 2011 was examined using observations from 81 meteorological stations, three local observation validated reanalysis datasets of relatively high spatial resolutions, and the Climate Research Unit (CRU) dataset. Major results suggested that the three reanalysis datasets match well with most of the local climate records, especially in the low-lying plain areas. The consensus of the multiple datasets showed significant regional surface air temperature increases of 0.36°–0.42°Cdecade-1 in the past 33 years. No significant contributions from declining irrigation and urbanization to temperature change were found. The rate is larger in recent years than in the early years in the study period. Additionally, unlike in many regions in the world, the temperature in winter showed no increase in central Asia in the last three decades, a noticeable departure from the global trend in the twentieth century. The largest increase in surface temperature was occurring in the spring season. Analyses further showed a warming center in the middle of the central Asian states and weakened temperature variability along the northwest–southeast temperature gradient from the northern Kazakhstan to southern Xinjiang. The reanalysis datasets also showed significant negative correlations between temperature increase rate and elevation in this complex terrain region

Modeling and analysis of the transmission dynamics of cystic echinococcosis: Effects of increasing the number of sheep

A transmission dynamics model with the logistic growth of cystic echinococcus in sheep was formulated and analyzed. The basic reproduction number was derived and the results showed that the global dynamical behaviors were determined by its value. The disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when the value of the basic reproduction number is less than one; otherwise, there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and it is globally asymptotically stable. Sensitivity analysis and uncertainty analysis of the basic reproduction number were also performed to screen the important factors that influence the spread of cystic echinococcosis. Contour plots of the basic reproduction number versus these important factors are presented, too. The results showed that the higher the deworming rate of dogs, the lower the prevalence of echinococcosis in sheep and dogs. Similarly, the higher the slaughter rate of sheep, the lower the prevalence of echinococcosis in sheep and dogs. It also showed that the spread of echinococcosis has a close relationship with the maximum environmental capacity of sheep, and that they have a remarkable negative correlation. This reminds us that the risk of cystic echinococcosis may be underestimated if we ignore the increasing number of sheep in reality

Spatiotemporal features of the soil moisture across Northwest China using remote sensing data, reanalysis data, and global hydrological model

Soil moisture is an important factor affecting the change of land surface hydrological processes and the distribution of material and energy exchanges between the land and atmosphere and vegetation’s temporal and spatial distributions, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. This paper focuses on soil moisture features across Northwest China, the core region of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Six soil moisture datasets from the period 1981–2020 were employed, which included ERA5 (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Atmospheric Reanalysis 5), ESA-CCI (European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative), GLDAS (Global Land Data Assimilation System), MERRA-2 (The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2), RSSSM (A Remote Sensing-based global 10-day resolution Surface Soil Moisture dataset), and SSM-Feng (Regional multimodal fusion of surface soil moisture data in China). The temporal and spatial variation of the linear trend and abrupt change characteristics at seasonal and annual scale were explored. The results are as follows: 1) ESA-CCI, GLDAS, and MERRA-2 showed a slow increase in annual soil moisture tendency at a rate of less than 0.001 m3/m3/year, while ERA5 and SSM-Feng showed a significant decreasing linear trend at a rate of 1.31 × 10−4 m3/m3/year and 1.01 × 10−4 m3/m3/year (p < 0.05), respectively. 2) In autumn and winter, only GLDAS and MERRA-2 showed significant increasing trends. In the growing season (i.e., from April to October), the soil moisture of ESA-CCI, GLDAS, and MERRA-2 significantly increased at the rates of 3.29 × 10−4 m3/m3/year, 3.30 × 10−4 m3/m3/year, and 6.64 × 10−4 m3/m3/year (p < 0.05), respectively. 3) ERA5 and ESA-CCI have frequent abrupt changes in 1984, 1987, and 2006 for ERA5, 2010–2012 and 2019–2020 for ESA-CCI. 4) In terms of spatial variations, most datasets show that soil moisture has increased across most regions. The ERA5, ESA-CCI, GLDAS, MERRA-2, and SSM-Feng datasets show decreased soil moisture in the Tarim Basin. The conclusions of this study deepen the understanding of temporal and spatial variation in soil moisture in arid areas of Northwest China. Through these conclusions, a certain theoretical basis can be provided for the complex water cycle process in the arid region

Characteristics and physical mechanisms of a rainstorm in Hotan, Xinjiang, China

Owing to global warming, extreme precipitation events in the arid regions of Central Asia have increased, resulting in significant consequences for water resources and ecosystems. Hence, to address the features and corresponding physical mechanisms of these rainstorms, we examined the rainstorm that occurred in Hotan, Xinjiang in June 2021 as a case study. We employed multiple datasets, including meteorological stations, sounding observations, satellite precipitation data, and reanalysis datasets. The results indicate that the Global Precipitation Measurement satellite precipitation product accurately captured the temporal and spatial variations in this rainstorm, as verified against hourly in situ observation data. Some meteorological stations recorded values greater than twice their historical records, such as Luopu, Pishan, Moyu, and Hotan. Moreover, the duration of the precipitation was longer than 2 days. For the physical mechanisms of this rainstorm, the water vapor in this rainstorm is sourced from the 45°–65°N region of the North Atlantic Ocean crosses the Ural Mountains and the West Siberian Plain to southern Xinjiang. The low-pressure levels (e.g., 700 hPa and 850 hPa) have the more water vapor flux and specific humidity than the high-pressure levels. Our findings can aid the understanding of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia and provide a reference for dealing with meteorological disasters, including extreme precipitation, in the context of global climate change

Scenario analysis of COVID-19 dynamical variations by different social environmental factors: a case study in Xinjiang

BackgroundWith the rapid advancement of the One Health approach, the transmission of human infectious diseases is generally related to environmental and animal health. Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been largely impacted by environmental factors regionally and globally and has significantly disrupted human society, especially in low-income regions that border many countries. However, few research studies have explored the impact of environmental factors on disease transmission in these regions.MethodsWe used the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as the study area to investigate the impact of environmental factors on COVID-19 variation using a dynamic disease model. Given the special control and prevention strategies against COVID-19 in Xinjiang, the focus was on social and environmental factors, including population mobility, quarantine rates, and return rates. The model performance was evaluated using the statistical metrics of correlation coefficient (CC), normalized absolute error (NAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and distance between the simulation and observation (DISO) indices. Scenario analyses of COVID-19 in Xinjiang encompassed three aspects: different population mobilities, quarantine rates, and return rates.ResultsThe results suggest that the established dynamic disease model can accurately simulate and predict COVID-19 variations with high accuracy. This model had a CC value of 0.96 and a DISO value of less than 0.35. According to the scenario analysis results, population mobilities have a large impact on COVID-19 variations, with quarantine rates having a stronger impact than return rates.ConclusionThese results provide scientific insight into the control and prevention of COVID-19 in Xinjiang, considering the influence of social and environmental factors on COVID-19 variation. The control and prevention strategies for COVID-19 examined in this study may also be useful for the control of other infectious diseases, especially in low-income regions that are bordered by many countries

Dynamical Variations of the Global COVID-19 Pandemic Based on a SEICR Disease Model: A New Approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 150 million cases of infection to date and poses a serious threat to global public health. In this study, global COVID-19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact of 84 countries across the five climate regions: tropical, arid, temperate, and cold. A new approach named Yi Hua Jie Mu is proposed to obtain the transmission rates based on the COVID-19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1–2 years. Moreover, based on the simulated results by the COVID-19 data, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID-19. The role of the climate on the COVID-19 variations should be concluded with more data and more cautions. The non-pharmaceutical interventions still play the key role in controlling and prevention this global pandemic