Next Day Wildfire Spread: A Machine Learning Data Set to Predict Wildfire Spreading from Remote-Sensing Data

Predicting wildfire spread is critical for land management and disaster preparedness. To this end, we present `Next Day Wildfire Spread,' a curated, large-scale, multivariate data set of historical wildfires aggregating nearly a decade of remote-sensing data across the United States. In contrast to existing fire data sets based on Earth observation satellites, our data set combines 2D fire data with multiple explanatory variables (e.g., topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, population density) aligned over 2D regions, providing a feature-rich data set for machine learning. To demonstrate the usefulness of this data set, we implement a neural network that takes advantage of the spatial information of this data to predict wildfire spread. We compare the performance of the neural network with other machine learning models: logistic regression and random forest. This data set can be used as a benchmark for developing wildfire propagation models based on remote sensing data for a lead time of one day.Comment: submitted to IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensin

Diagnosing and predicting wind turbine faults from SCADA data using support vector machines

Unscheduled or reactive maintenance on wind turbines due to component failure incurs significant downtime and, in turn, loss of revenue. To this end, it is important to be able to perform maintenance before it's needed. To date, a strong effort has been applied to developing Condition Monitoring Systems (CMSs) which rely on retrofitting expensive vibration or oil analysis sensors to the turbine. Instead, by performing complex analysis of existing data from the turbine's Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system, valuable insights into turbine performance can be obtained at a much lower cost. In this paper, fault and alarm data from a turbine on the Southern coast of Ireland is analysed to identify periods of nominal and faulty operation. Classification techniques are then applied to detect and diagnose faults by taking into account other SCADA data such as temperature, pitch and rotor data. This is then extended to allow prediction and diagnosis in advance of specific faults. Results are provided which show recall scores generally above 80\% for fault detection and diagnosis, and prediction up to 24 hours in advance of specific faults, representing significant improvement over previous techniques

Spatial Metrics of Interaction between CD163-Positive Macrophages and Cancer Cells and Progression-Free Survival in Chemo-Treated Breast Cancer

Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) promote progression of breast cancer and other solid malignancies via immunosuppressive, pro-angiogenic and pro-metastatic effects. Tumor-promoting TAMs tend to express M2-like macrophage markers, including CD163. Histopathological assessments suggest that the density of CD163-positive TAMs within the tumor microenvironment is associated with reduced efficacy of chemotherapy and unfavorable prognosis. However, previous analyses have required research-oriented pathologists to visually enumerate CD163+ TAMs, which is both laborious and subjective and hampers clinical implementation. Objective, operator-independent image analysis methods to quantify TAM-associated information are needed. In addition, since M2-like TAMs exert local effects on cancer cells through direct juxtacrine cell-to-cell interactions, paracrine signaling, and metabolic factors, we hypothesized that spatial metrics of adjacency of M2-like TAMs to breast cancer cells will have further information value. Immunofluorescence histo-cytometry of CD163+ TAMs was performed retrospectively on tumor microarrays of 443 cases of invasive breast cancer from patients who subsequently received adjuvant chemotherapy. An objective and automated algorithm was developed to phenotype CD163+ TAMs and calculate their density within the tumor stroma and derive several spatial metrics of interaction with cancer cells. Shorter progression-free survival was associated with a high density of CD163+ TAMs, shorter median cancer-to-CD163+ nearest neighbor distance, and a high number of either directly adjacent CD163+ TAMs (within juxtacrine proximity \u3c12 µm to cancer cells) or communicating CD163+ TAMs (within paracrine communication distance \u3c250 µm to cancer cells) after multivariable adjustment for clinical and pathological risk factors and correction for optimistic bias due to dichotomization

Nanoceria Inhibit the Development and Promote the Regression of Pathologic Retinal Neovascularization in the Vldlr Knockout Mouse

Many neurodegenerative diseases are known to occur and progress because of oxidative stress, the presence of reactive oxygen species (ROS) in excess of the cellular defensive capabilities. Age related macular degeneration (AMD), diabetic retinopathy (DR) and inherited retinal degeneration share oxidative stress as a common node upstream of the blinding effects of these diseases. Knockout of the Vldlr gene results in a mouse that develops intraretinal and subretinal neovascular lesions within the first month of age and is an excellent model for a form of AMD called retinal angiomatous proliferation (RAP). Cerium oxide nanoparticles (nanoceria) catalytically scavenge ROS by mimicking the activities of superoxide dismutase and catalase. A single intravitreal injection of nanoceria into the Vldlr-/- eye was shown to inhibit: the rise in ROS in the Vldlr-/- retina, increases in vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) in the photoreceptor layer, and the formation of intraretinal and subretinal neovascular lesions. Of more therapeutic interest, injection of nanoceria into older mice (postnatal day 28) resulted in the regression of existing vascular lesions indicating that the pathologic neovessels require the continual production of excessive ROS. Our data demonstrate the unique ability of nanoceria to prevent downstream effects of oxidative stress in vivo and support their therapeutic potential for treatment of neurodegenerative diseases such as AMD and DR

Induction of Bcl-2 Expression by Hepatitis B Virus Pre-S2 Mutant Large Surface Protein Resistance to 5-Fluorouracil Treatment in Huh-7 Cells

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common malignancies worldwide with poor prognosis due to resistance to conventional chemotherapy and limited efficacy of radiotherapy. Our previous studies have indicated that expression of Hepatitis B virus pre-S2 large mutant surface antigen (HBV pre-S2Δ) is associated with a significant risk of developing HCC. However, the relationship between HBV pre-S2Δ protein and the resistance of chemotherapeutic drug treatment is still unclear. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we show that the expression of HBV pre-S2Δ mutant surface protein in Huh-7 cell significantly promoted cell growth and colony formation. Furthermore, HBV pre-S2Δ protein increased both mRNA (2.7±0.5-fold vs. vehicle, p=0.05) and protein (3.2±0.3-fold vs. vehicle, p=0.01) levels of Bcl-2 in Huh-7 cells. HBV pre-S2Δ protein also enhances Bcl-2 family, Bcl-xL and Mcl-1, expression in Huh-7 cells. Meanwhile, induction of NF-κB p65, ERK, and Akt phosphorylation, and GRP78 expression, an unfolded protein response chaperone, were observed in HBV pre-S2Δ and HBV pre-S-expressing cells. Induction of Bcl-2 expression by HBV pre-S2Δ protein resulted in resistance to 5-fluorouracil treatment in colony formation, caspase-3 assay, and cell apoptosis, and can enhance cell death by co-incubation with Bcl-2 inhibitor. Similarly, transgenic mice showed higher expression of Bcl-2 in liver tissue expressing HBV pre-S2Δ large surface protein in vivo. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our result demonstrates that HBV pre-S2Δ increased Bcl-2 expression which plays an important role in resistance to 5-fluorouracil-caused cell death. Therefore, these data provide an important chemotherapeutic strategy in HBV pre-S2Δ-associated tumor

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks

The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages