How well do CMIP5 climate simulations replicate historical trends and patterns of meteorological droughts?

Assessing the uncertainties and understanding the deficiencies of climate models are fundamental to developing adaptation strategies. The objective of this study is to understand how well Coupled Model Intercomparison-Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model simulations replicate ground-based observations of continental drought areas and their trends. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble encompasses the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) ground-based observations of area under drought at all time steps. However, most model members overestimate the areas under extreme drought, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). Furthermore, the results show that the time series of observations and CMIP5 simulations of areas under drought exhibit more variability in the SH than in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The trend analysis of areas under drought reveals that the observational data exhibit a significant positive trend at the significance level of 0.05 over all land areas. The observed trend is reproduced by about three-fourths of the CMIP5 models when considering total land areas in drought. While models are generally consistent with observations at a global (or hemispheric) scale, most models do not agree with observed regional drying and wetting trends. Over many regions, at most 40% of the CMIP5 models are in agreement with the trends of CRU observations. The drying/wetting trends calculated using the 3 months Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values show better agreement with the corresponding CRU values than with the observed annual mean precipitation rates. Pixel-scale evaluation of CMIP5 models indicates that no single model demonstrates an overall superior performance relative to the other models

Biogeochemical Impact of Long-Range Transported Dust over Northern South China Sea

Transpacific transport and impact of Asian dust aerosols have been well documented (e.g., results from ACE-Asia and regional follow-on campaigns), but little is known about dust invasion to the South China Sea (SCS). On 19-21 March 2010, a fierce Asian dust storm affected large areas from the Gobi deserts to the West Pacific, including Taiwan and Hong Kong. As a pilot study of the 7-SEAS (Seven South East Asian Studies) in the northern SCS, detailed characteristics of long-range transported dust aerosols were first observed by a comprehensive set of ground-based instruments deployed at the Dongsha islands (20deg42'52" N, 116deg43'51" E). Aerosol measurements such as particle mass concentrations, size distribution, optical properties, hygroscopicity, and vertical profiles help illustrate the evolution of this dust outbreak. Our results indicate that these dust particles were mixed with anthropogenic and marine aerosols, and transported near the surface. Satellite assessment of biogeochemical impact of dust deposition into open oceans is hindered by our current inability in retrieving areal dust properties and ocean colors over an extensive period of time, particularly under the influence of cloudy conditions. In this paper, we analyze the changes of retrieved Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration over the northern SCS, considered as oligotophic waters in the spring, from long-term SeaWiFS measurements since 1997. Over the past decade, six long-range transported dust events are identified based on spatiotemporal evolutions of PM10 measurements from regional monitoring stations, with the aid of trajectory analysis. Multi-year composites of Chl-a imagery for dust event and non-dust background during March-April are applied to overcome insufficient retrievals of Chl-a due to cloudy environment. Due to anthropogenic modification within a shallow boundary layer off the densely populated and industrial southeast coast of China, the iron ion activation of deliquescent dust particles enhances the efficiency of fertilization for biological productivity. Compared to the West Pacific, the marine ecosystem in the northern SCS is much more susceptible to the biogeochemical impact of long-range transported Asian dust

Positivity of High Density Effective Theory

We show that the effective field theory of low energy modes in dense QCD has positive Euclidean path integral measure. The complexity of the measure of QCD at finite chemical potential can be ascribed to modes which are irrelevant to the dynamics at sufficiently high density. Rigorous inequalities follow at asymptotic density. Lattice simulation of dense QCD should be possible using the quark determinant calculated in the effective theory.Comment: 10 pages, Revised version, to appear in Rapid Communications of Physical Review

O(4)-Invariant Formulation of the Nodal Liquid

We consider the O(4) symmetric point in the phase diagram of an electron system in which there is a transition between d_{x^2 - y^2} density-wave order and d_{x^2 - y^2} superconductivity. If the pseudospin $SU(2)\subset O(4)$ symmetry is disordered by quantum fluctuations, the Nodal Liquid can result. In this context, we (1) construct a pseudospin $\sigma$-model; (2) discuss its topological excitations; (3) point out the possibility of a {\it pseudospin-Peierls} state and (4) propose a phase diagram for the underdoped cuprate superconductors

Counting fermionic zero modes on M5 with fluxes

We study the Dirac equation on an M5 brane wrapped on a divisor in a Calabi--Yau fourfold in the presence of background flux. We reduce the computation of the normal bundle U(1) anomaly to counting the solutions of a finite--dimensional linear system on cohomology. This system depends on the choice of flux. In an example, we find that the presence of flux changes the anomaly and allows instanton corrections to the superpotential which would otherwise be absent.Comment: 14 pages. v2: reference added, typos corrected, few change

A regional chemical transport modeling to identify the influences of biomass burning during 2006 BASE-ASIA

To evaluate the impact of biomass burning from Southeast Asia to East Asia, this study conducted numerical simulations during NASA\u27s 2006 Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA). Two typical episode periods (27–28 March and 13–14 April) were examined. Two emission inventories, FLAMBE and GFED, were used in the simulations. The influences during two episodes in the source region (Southeast Asia) contributed to CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as high as 400 ppbv, 20 ppbv and 80 μg/m3, respectively. The perturbations with and without biomass burning of the above three species were in the range of 10 to 60%, 10 to 20% and 30 to 70%, respectively. The impact due to long-range transport could spread over the southeastern parts of East Asia and could reach about 160 to 360 ppbv, 8 to 18 ppbv and 8 to 64 μg/m3 on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively; the percentage impact could reach 20 to 50% on CO, 10 to 30% on O3, and as high as 70% on PM2.5. An impact pattern can be found in April, while the impact becomes slightly broader and goes up to Yangtze River Delta. Two cross-sections at 15° N and 20° N were used to compare the vertical flux of biomass burning. In the source region (Southeast Asia), CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations had a strong upward tendency from surface to high altitudes. The eastward transport becomes strong from 2 to 8 km in the free troposphere. The subsidence contributed 60 to 70%, 20 to 50%, and 80% on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively to surface in the downwind area. The study reveals the significant impact of Southeastern Asia biomass burning on the air quality in both local and downwind areas, particularly during biomass burning episodes. This modeling study might provide constraints of lower limit. An additional study is underway for an active biomass burning year to obtain an upper limit and climate effects. doi:10.5194/acpd-11-3071-201

A regional chemical transport modeling to identify the influences of biomass burning during 2006 BASE-ASIA

To evaluate the impact of biomass burning from Southeast Asia to East Asia, this study conducted numerical simulations during NASA\u27s 2006 Biomass-burning Aerosols in South-East Asia: Smoke Impact Assessment (BASE-ASIA). Two typical episode periods (27–28 March and 13–14 April) were examined. Two emission inventories, FLAMBE and GFED, were used in the simulations. The influences during two episodes in the source region (Southeast Asia) contributed to CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations as high as 400 ppbv, 20 ppbv and 80 μg/m3, respectively. The perturbations with and without biomass burning of the above three species were in the range of 10 to 60%, 10 to 20% and 30 to 70%, respectively. The impact due to long-range transport could spread over the southeastern parts of East Asia and could reach about 160 to 360 ppbv, 8 to 18 ppbv and 8 to 64 μg/m3 on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively; the percentage impact could reach 20 to 50% on CO, 10 to 30% on O3, and as high as 70% on PM2.5. An impact pattern can be found in April, while the impact becomes slightly broader and goes up to Yangtze River Delta. Two cross-sections at 15° N and 20° N were used to compare the vertical flux of biomass burning. In the source region (Southeast Asia), CO, O3 and PM2.5 concentrations had a strong upward tendency from surface to high altitudes. The eastward transport becomes strong from 2 to 8 km in the free troposphere. The subsidence contributed 60 to 70%, 20 to 50%, and 80% on CO, O3 and PM2.5, respectively to surface in the downwind area. The study reveals the significant impact of Southeastern Asia biomass burning on the air quality in both local and downwind areas, particularly during biomass burning episodes. This modeling study might provide constraints of lower limit. An additional study is underway for an active biomass burning year to obtain an upper limit and climate effects. doi:10.5194/acpd-11-3071-201

Settling Simulation of A Muddy Reservoir For Identifying Problematic Turbidity To Selective Withdrawal

Source: ICHE Conference Archive - https://mdi-de.baw.de/icheArchiv

Enhanced Pre-Monsoon Warming over the Himalayan-Gangetic Region from 1979-2007

Fundamental to the onset of the Indian Summer Monsoon is the land-sea thermal gradient from the Indian Ocean to the Himalayas-Tibetan Plateau (HTP). The timing of the onset is strongly controlled by the meridional tropospheric temperature gradient due to the rapid premonsoon heating of the HTP compared to the relatively cooler Indian Ocean. Analysis of tropospheric temperatures from the longest available record of microwave satellite measurements reveals widespread warming over the Himalayan-Gangetic region and consequent strengthening of the land-sea thermal gradient. This trend is most pronounced in the pre-monsoon season, resulting in a warming of 2.7 C in the 29-year record (1979–2007), when this region is strongly influenced by dust aerosols at elevated altitudes. The enhanced tropospheric warming is accompanied by increased atmospheric loading of absorbing aerosols, particularly vertically extended dust aerosols, raising the possibility that aerosol solar heating has amplified the seasonal warming and in turn strengthened the land-sea gradient