Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum?

The unexpected development of cycle 24 emphasizes the need for a better way to model future solar activity. In this article, we analyze the accumulation of spotless days during individual cycles from 1798-2010. The analysis shows that spotless days do not disappear abruptly in the transition towards an active sun. A comparison with past cycles indicates that the ongoing accumulation of spotless days is comparable to that of cycle 5 near the Dalton minimum and to that of cycles 12, 14 and 15. It also suggests that the ongoing cycle has as much as 20 \pm 8 spotless days left, from July 2010, before it reaches the next solar maximum. The last spotless day is predicted to be in December 2012, with an uncertainty of 11 months. This trend may serve as input to the solar dynamo theories.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures. The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

The Taxpayer Relief Act Of 1997 And Homeownership: Is Smaller Now Better?

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106064/1/ecin.12056.pd

Magnetic field-induced spectroscopy of forbidden optical transitions with application to lattice-based optical atomic clocks

We develop a method of spectroscopy that uses a weak static magnetic field to enable direct optical excitation of forbidden electric-dipole transitions that are otherwise prohibitively weak. The power of this scheme is demonstrated using the important application of optical atomic clocks based on neutral atoms confined to an optical lattice. The simple experimental implementation of this method -- a single clock laser combined with a DC magnetic field-- relaxes stringent requirements in current lattice-based clocks (e.g., magnetic field shielding and light polarization), and could therefore expedite the realization of the extraordinary performance level predicted for these clocks. We estimate that a clock using alkaline earth-like atoms such as Yb could achieve a fractional frequency uncertainty of well below 10^-17 for the metrologically preferred even isotopes

Measuring kinetic coefficients by molecular dynamics simulation of zone melting

Molecular dynamics simulations are performed to measure the kinetic coefficient at the solid-liquid interface in pure gold. Results are obtained for the (111), (100) and (110) orientations. Both Au(100) and Au(110) are in reasonable agreement with the law proposed for collision-limited growth. For Au(111), stacking fault domains form, as first reported by Burke, Broughton and Gilmer [J. Chem. Phys. {\bf 89}, 1030 (1988)]. The consequence on the kinetics of this interface is dramatic: the measured kinetic coefficient is three times smaller than that predicted by collision-limited growth. Finally, crystallization and melting are found to be always asymmetrical but here again the effect is much more pronounced for the (111) orientation.Comment: 8 pages, 9 figures (for fig. 8 : [email protected]). Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev.

Observation and absolute frequency measurements of the 1S0 - 3P0 optical clock transition in ytterbium

We report the direct excitation of the highly forbidden (6s^2) 1S0 - (6s6p) 3P0 optical transition in two odd isotopes of ytterbium. As the excitation laser frequency is scanned, absorption is detected by monitoring the depletion from an atomic cloud at ~70 uK in a magneto-optical trap. The measured frequency in 171Yb (F=1/2) is 518,295,836,593.2 +/- 4.4 kHz. The measured frequency in 173Yb (F=5/2) is 518,294,576,850.0 +/- 4.4 kHz. Measurements are made with a femtosecond-laser frequency comb calibrated by the NIST cesium fountain clock and represent nearly a million-fold reduction in uncertainty. The natural linewidth of these J=0 to J=0 transitions is calculated to be ~10 mHz, making them well-suited to support a new generation of optical atomic clocks based on confinement in an optical lattice.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

2016 International Orthoptic Congress Burian Lecture: folklore or evidence?

The theme of the 2016 Burian Lecture is how our understanding of strabismus has been changed by the research carried out in our laboratory in Reading over the years. Accommodation and convergence are fundamental to Orthoptics, but actual responses have often been very different to what we had expected. This paper outlines how our laboratory’s understanding of common issues such as normal development of accommodation and convergence, their linkage, intermittent strabismus, anisometropia, orthoptic exercises and risk factors for strabismus have changed. A new model of thinking about convergence and accommodation may help us to better understand and predict responses in our patients

An exchange format for multimodal annotations

This paper presents the results of a joint effort of a group of multimodality researchers and tool developers to improve the interoperability between several tools used for the annotation of multimodality. We propose a multimodal annotation exchange format, based on the annotation graph formalism, which is supported by import and export routines in the respective tool

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions

A Simple Method to Check the Reliability of Annual Sunspot Number in the Historical Period 1610-1847

A simple method to detect inconsistencies in low annual sunspot numbers based on the relationship between these values and the annual number of active days is described. The analysis allowed for the detection of problems in the annual sunspot number series clustered in a few specific periods and unambiguous, namely: i) before Maunder minimum, ii) the year 1652 during the Maunder minimum, iii) the year 1741 in Solar Cycle -1, and iv) the so-called "lost" solar cycle in 1790s and subsequent onset of the Dalton Minimum.Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, to be published in Solar Physic