Managing Grassland Systems in a Changing Climate: The Search for Practical Solutions

By the end of the XXIst century, a global temperature rise between 1.5 and 4°C compared to 1980-1999 and CO2 concentrations in the range 550-900 ppm are expected, together with an increased frequency of extreme climatic events (heat waves, droughts, and heavy rain) that is likely to negatively affect grassland production and livestock systems in a number of world regions. Grassland management has a large potential to mitigate livestock greenhouse gas emissions at a low (or even negative) cost, by combining a moderate intensification, the restoration of degraded pastures and the development of silvo-pastoral systems. Climate change vulnerability will be highest in regional hot spots with high exposure to climatic extremes and low adaptive capacity, such as extensive systems in dryland areas. Biome shifts, with expansion or contraction of the grassland biome, are projected by models. Resistance, resilience and transformation strategies can be used for grassland adaptation.With sown grasslands, adaptation options include changes in forage species (e.g. use of C4 grasses and of annual species) and genotypes and the use of grass-legume mixtures. Grazing management can be adapted to increase the resilience of plant communities to climatic variability. Our understanding of the synergies and trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation in the grassland sector is still limited and requires further research. Provided this understanding is gained, climate smart grassland systems that sustainably increase productivity and resilience (adaptation), reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), and enhance food security and development could be promoted. By reducing productivity gaps and increasing livestock production efficiency, they would also contribute to mitigate climate change from tropical deforestation and expansion of grasslands into savannahs

The Rationale and Design of the Reducing Pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR) Trial

BACKGROUND: Anti-hypertensives that modify the renin angiotensin system may reduce Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology and reduce the rate of disease progression. OBJECTIVE: To conduct a phase II, two arm, double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized trial of losartan to test the efficacy of Reducing pathology in Alzheimer's Disease through Angiotensin TaRgeting (RADAR). METHODS: Men and women aged at least 55 years with mild-to-moderate AD will be randomly allocated 100 mg encapsulated generic losartan or placebo once daily for 12 months after successful completion of a 2-week open-label phase and 2-week placebo washout to establish drug tolerability. 228 participants will provide at least 182 subjects with final assessments to provide 84% power to detect a 25% difference in atrophy rate (therapeutic benefit) change over 12 months at an alpha level of 0.05. We will use intention-to-treat analysis, estimating between-group differences in outcomes derived from appropriate (linear or logistic) multivariable regression models adjusting for minimization variables. RESULTS: The primary outcome will be rate of whole brain atrophy as a surrogate measure of disease progression. Secondary outcomes will include changes to 1) white matter hyperintensity volume and cerebral blood flow; 2) performance on a standard series of assessments of memory, cognitive function, activities of daily living, and quality of life. Major assessments (for all outcomes) and relevant safety monitoring of blood pressure and bloods will be at baseline and 12 months. Additional cognitive assessment will also be conducted at 6 months along with safety blood pressure and blood monitoring. Monitoring of blood pressure, bloods, and self-reported side effects will occur during the open-label phase and during the majority of the post-randomization dispensing visits. CONCLUSION: This study will identify whether losartan is efficacious in the treatment of AD and whether definitive Phase III trials are warranted

Carbapenemase-producing enterobacterales colonisation status does not lead to more frequent admissions: a linked patient study

Background: Hospitals in any given region can be considered as part of a network, where facilities are connected to one another – and hospital pathogens potentially spread – through the movement of patients between them. We sought to describe the hospital admission patterns of patients known to be colonised with carbapenemase-producing Enterobacterales (CPE), and compare them with CPE-negative patient cohorts, matched on comorbidity information. Methods: We performed a linkage study in Victoria, Australia, including datasets with notifiable diseases (CPE notifications) and hospital admissions (admission dates and diagnostic codes) for the period 2011 to 2020. Where the CPE notification date occurred during a hospital admission for the same patient, we identified this as the ‘index admission’. We determined the number of distinct health services each patient was admitted to, and time to first admission to a different health service. We compared CPE-positive patients with four cohorts of CPE-negative patients, sampled based on different matching criteria. Results: Of 528 unique patients who had CPE detected during a hospital admission, 222 (42%) were subsequently admitted to a different health service during the study period. Among these patients, CPE diagnosis tended to occur during admission to a metropolitan public hospital (86%, 190/222), whereas there was a greater number of metropolitan private (23%, 52/222) and rural public (18%, 39/222) hospitals for the subsequent admission. Median time to next admission was 4 days (IQR, 0–75 days). Admission patterns for CPE-positive patients was similar to the cohort of CPE-negative patients matched on index admission, time period, and age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index. Conclusions: Movement of CPE-positive patients between health services is not a rare event. While the most common movement is from one public metropolitan health service to another, there is also a trend for movement from metropolitan public hospitals into private and rural hospitals. After accounting for clinical comorbidities, CPE colonisation status does not appear to impact on hospital admission frequency or timing. These findings support the potential utility of a centralised notification and outbreak management system for CPE positive patients

Two-axis accelerometer based on multicore fibre Bragg gratings

We report an accelerometer based upon a simple fibre cantilever constructed from a short length of multicore fibre(MCF) containing fibre Bragg gratings (FBGs). Two-axis measurement is demonstrated up to 3 kHz

Community IntraVenous Antibiotic Study (CIVAS): protocol for an evaluation of patient preferences for and cost-effectiveness of community intravenous antibiotic services

Introduction: Outpatient parenteral antimicrobial therapy (OPAT) is used to treat a wide range of infections, and is common practice in countries such as the USA and Australia. In the UK, national guidelines (standards of care) for OPAT services have been developed to act as a benchmark for clinical monitoring and quality. However, the availability of OPAT services in the UK is still patchy and until quite recently was available only in specialist centres. Over time, National Health Service (NHS) Trusts have developed OPAT services in response to local needs, which has resulted in different service configurations and models of care. However, there has been no robust examination comparing the cost-effectiveness of each service type, or any systematic examination of patient preferences for services on which to base any business case decision. Methods and analysis: The study will use a mixed methods approach, to evaluate patient preferences for and the cost-effectiveness of OPAT service models. The study includes seven NHS Trusts located in four counties. There are five inter-related work packages: a systematic review of the published research on the safety, efficacy and cost-effectiveness of intravenous antibiotic delivery services; a qualitative study to explore existing OPAT services and perceived barriers to future development; an economic model to estimate the comparative value of four different community intravenous antibiotic services; a discrete choice experiment to assess patient preferences for services, and an expert panel to agree which service models may constitute the optimal service model(s) of community intravenous antibiotics delivery. Ethics and dissemination: The study has been approved by the NRES Committee, South West—Frenchay using the Proportionate Review Service (ref 13/SW/0060). The results of the study will be disseminated at national and international conferences, and in international journals

Losartan to slow the progression of mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease through angiotensin targeting: the RADAR RCT

BACKGROUND: Medications that modify the renin–angiotensin system may reduce Alzheimer’s disease pathology and reduce the rate of disease progression. OBJECTIVE: This study investigated whether taking the antihypertensive drug losartan, in addition to normal care, would slow the progression of Alzheimer’s disease when compared with a placebo. DESIGN: A double-blind multicentre randomised controlled trial, after a 4-week open-label phase, with follow-up at 14 days and at 3, 6, 9 and 12 months. The primary outcome was based on measured imaging differences in brain volume between baseline and 12 months. SETTING: Twenty-three NHS hospital trusts across England, Scotland and Northern Ireland. PARTICIPANTS: Patients diagnosed with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer’s disease were eligible to participate if they met the following criteria: (1) aged ≥ 55 years; (2) a Mini Mental State Examination score of 15–28; (3) a modified Hachinski Ischaemic Score of ≤ 5; (4) a previous computerised tomography, single-photon emission computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging scan consistent with a diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease; (5) a study companion who was willing to participate in the study; and (6) capacity to consent for themselves. Patients were ineligible if they were (1) taking or intolerant to renin–angiotensin system-related medications, (2) unlikely to undergo magnetic resonance imaging or (3) unlikely to complete the trial protocol. People who had blood pressure outside the normal ranges, defined cardiovascular issues, impaired liver or renal function, or a primary neurodegenerative disease that was not Alzheimer’s disease were also excluded, as were women who had not reached menopause and were unwilling to take relevant protocol-specific safety precautions. INTERVENTION: The intervention was either 100 mg of overencapsulated losartan (Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd, Petah Tikva, Israel) daily or a matched placebo for 12 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Difference in brain atrophy, represented by measurement of whole-brain volume before and following 12 months of treatment post randomisation, was measured using volumetric MRI and determined by boundary shift interval analysis. Secondary outcomes included changes in rates of Alzheimer’s disease progression (as assessed using the ADAS-Cog, Mini Mental State Examination and Neuropsychiatric Inventory), the volume of white matter hyperintensities, cerebral blood flow (assessed by magnetic resonance imaging), blood pressure, magnetic resonance imaging measures of atrophy and association with measures of cognitive decline, and drug compliance and tolerability. RESULTS: A total of 261 participants entered the open-label phase, of whom 211 were randomised to the intervention (n = 105) or placebo (n = 106) arms. Of the 197 people (93%) who completed the study, 81% (n = 171) had a valid primary outcome. The difference in brain volume between arms was consistent with chance (–2.79 ml, 95% confidence interval –6.46 to 0.89 ml; p = 0.19), and there was no evidence of benefit for any of the secondary outcome measures. LIMITATIONS: Our study had 82% power to detect treatment-based changes and, as a result, may have been underpowered or, more likely, the intervention, which may not have crossed the blood–brain barrier as much as expected, may have been given too late or for an insufficient amount of time in the disease process to influence the outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: Losartan administered over 12 months did not alter brain atrophy in Alzheimer’s disease. FUTURE WORK: Other related ‘sartans’ could be tested in patient groups with mild cognitive impairment and for longer to fully test this hypothesis. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN93682878 and EudraCT 2012-003641-15. FUNDING: This project was funded by the Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation (EME) programme, a Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) partnership. This will be published in full in Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation; Vol. 8, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information

When Did HIV Incidence Peak in Harare, Zimbabwe? Back-Calculation from Mortality Statistics

HIV prevalence has recently begun to decline in Zimbabwe, a result of both high levels of AIDS mortality and a reduction in incident infections. An important component in understanding the dynamics in HIV prevalence is knowledge of past trends in incidence, such as when incidence peaked and at what level. However, empirical measurements of incidence over an extended time period are not available from Zimbabwe or elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Using mortality data, we use a back-calculation technique to reconstruct historic trends in incidence. From AIDS mortality data, extracted from death registration in Harare, together with an estimate of survival post-infection, HIV incidence trends were reconstructed that would give rise to the observed patterns of AIDS mortality. Models were fitted assuming three parametric forms of the incidence curve and under nine different assumptions regarding combinations of trends in non-AIDS mortality and patterns of survival post-infection with HIV. HIV prevalence was forward-projected from the fitted incidence and mortality curves. Models that constrained the incidence pattern to a cubic spline function were flexible and produced well-fitting, realistic patterns of incidence. In models assuming constant levels of non-AIDS mortality, annual incidence peaked between 4 and 5% between 1988 and 1990. Under other assumptions the peak level ranged from 3 to 8% per annum. However, scenarios assuming increasing levels of non-AIDS mortality resulted in implausibly low estimates of peak prevalence (11%), whereas models with decreasing underlying crude mortality could be consistent with the prevalence and mortality data. HIV incidence is most likely to have peaked in Harare between 1988 and 1990, which may have preceded the peak elsewhere in Zimbabwe. This finding, considered alongside the timing and location of HIV prevention activities, will give insight into the decline of HIV prevalence in Zimbabwe

Safety and efficacy of losartan for the reduction of brain atrophy in clinically diagnosed Alzheimer's disease (the RADAR trial): a double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled, phase 2 trial

BACKGROUND: Drugs modifying angiotensin II signalling could reduce Alzheimer's disease pathology, thus decreasing the rate of disease progression. We investigated whether the angiotensin II receptor antagonist losartan, compared with placebo, could reduce brain volume loss, as a measure of disease progression, in clinically diagnosed mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease. METHODS: In this double-blind, multicentre, randomised controlled trial, eligible patients aged 55 years or older, previously untreated with angiotensin II drugs and diagnosed (National Institute of Neurological and Communicative Disorders and Stroke and the Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders Association criteria) with mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease, and who had capacity to consent, were recruited from 23 UK National Health Service hospital trusts. After undergoing a 4-week, open-label phase of active treatment then washout, participants were randomly assigned (1:1) oral over-encapsulated preparations of either 100 mg losartan (after an initial two-dose titration stage) or matched placebo daily for 12 months. Randomisation, minimised by age and baseline medial temporal lobe atrophy score, was undertaken online or via pin-access service by telephone. Participants, their study companions, and study personnel were masked to group assignment. The primary outcome, analysed by the intention-to-treat principle (ie, participants analysed in the group to which they were randomised, without imputation for missing data), was change in whole brain volume between baseline and 12 months, measured using volumetric MRI and determined by boundary shift interval (BSI) analysis. The trial is registered with the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Register (ISRCTN93682878) and the European Union Drug Regulating Authorities Clinical Trials Database (EudraCT 2012-003641-15), and is completed. FINDINGS: Between July 22, 2014, and May 17, 2018, 261 participants entered the open-label phase. 211 were randomly assigned losartan (n=105) or placebo (n=106). Of 197 (93%) participants who completed the study, 171 (81%) had complete primary outcome data. The mean brain volume (BSI) reduction was 19·1 mL (SD 10·3) in the losartan group and 20·0 mL (10·8) in the placebo group. The difference in total volume reduction between groups was -2·29 mL (95% CI -6·46 to 0·89; p=0·14). The number of adverse events was low (22 in the losartan group and 20 in the placebo group) with no differences between treatment groups. There was one treatment-related death per treatment group. INTERPRETATION: 12 months of treatment with losartan was well tolerated but was not effective in reducing the rate of brain atrophy in individuals with clinically diagnosed mild-to-moderate Alzheimer's disease. Further research is needed to assess the potential therapeutic benefit from earlier treatment in patients with milder cognitive impairment or from longer treatment periods. FUNDING: Efficacy and Mechanism Evaluation Programme (UK Medical Research Council and National Institute for Health Research)