The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting

Background The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. Methods Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. Results Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. Conclusion The SACMC’s models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout

The role of modelling and analytics in South African COVID-19 planning and budgeting

Background The South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium (SACMC) was established in late March 2020 to support planning and budgeting for COVID-19 related healthcare in South Africa. We developed several tools in response to the needs of decision makers in the different stages of the epidemic, allowing the South African government to plan several months ahead. Methods Our tools included epidemic projection models, several cost and budget impact models, and online dashboards to help government and the public visualise our projections, track case development and forecast hospital admissions. Information on new variants, including Delta and Omicron, were incorporated in real time to allow the shifting of scarce resources when necessary. Results Given the rapidly changing nature of the outbreak globally and in South Africa, the model projections were updated regularly. The updates reflected 1) the changing policy priorities over the course of the epidemic; 2) the availability of new data from South African data systems; and 3) the evolving response to COVID-19 in South Africa, such as changes in lockdown levels and ensuing mobility and contact rates, testing and contact tracing strategies and hospitalisation criteria. Insights into population behaviour required updates by incorporating notions of behavioural heterogeneity and behavioural responses to observed changes in mortality. We incorporated these aspects into developing scenarios for the third wave and developed additional methodology that allowed us to forecast required inpatient capacity. Finally, real-time analyses of the most important characteristics of the Omicron variant first identified in South Africa in November 2021 allowed us to advise policymakers early in the fourth wave that a relatively lower admission rate was likely. Conclusion The SACMC’s models, developed rapidly in an emergency setting and regularly updated with local data, supported national and provincial government to plan several months ahead, expand hospital capacity when needed, allocate budgets and procure additional resources where possible. Across four waves of COVID-19 cases, the SACMC continued to serve the planning needs of the government, tracking waves and supporting the national vaccine rollout

Comparative incidence rates of mild adverse effects to transcranial magnetic stimulation

Objectives Past research has largely neglected to investigate mild adverse effects (MAEs) to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), including headache and nausea. Here we explored the relationship between MAEs, participant characteristics (age and gender) and protocol parameters, including mode of application, coil geometry, stimulated brain region, TMS frequency, TMS intensity, and active vs. sham stimulation. Methods Data from 1270 standard post-monitoring forms was obtained from 113 healthy participants. Analyses aimed to identify the risk factors associated with MAE reports and specific symptoms. Results The overall rate of MAEs across TMS sessions was ∼5%, with ∼78% of symptoms occurring post-session. Initial TMS sessions were followed by a higher MAE incidence rate relative to later testing sessions. No associations between participant characteristics, TMS frequency, or intensity were observed. Conclusions TMS-related MAEs are relatively common and may be exacerbated by initial expectations or anxieties of participants. A significant proportion of MAEs may reflect reporting of coincidental phenomena that are unrelated to TMS. Recommendations for future safety studies are proposed and monitoring documentation is provided. Significance Our findings illustrate the importance of standardized monitoring of MAEs. Such research aids our understanding of how MAEs arise and may lead to interventions for reducing their incidence

Comparative incidence rates of mild adverse effects to transcranial magnetic stimulation

Objectives: Past research has largely neglected to investigate mild adverse effects (MAEs) to transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS), including headache and nausea. Here we explored the relationship between MAEs, participant characteristics (age and gender) and protocol parameters, including mode of application, coil geometry, stimulated brain region, TMS frequency, TMS intensity, and active vs. sham stimulation. Methods: Data from 1270 standard post-monitoring forms was obtained from 113 healthy participants. Analyses aimed to identify the risk factors associated with MAE reports and specific symptoms. Results: The overall rate of MAEs across TMS sessions was similar to 5%, with similar to 78% of symptoms occurring post-session. Initial TMS sessions were followed by a higher MAE incidence rate relative to later testing sessions. No associations between participant characteristics, TMS frequency, or intensity were observed. Conclusions: TMS-related MAEs are relatively common and may be exacerbated by initial expectations or anxieties of participants. A significant proportion of MAEs may reflect reporting of coincidental phenomena that are unrelated to TMS. Recommendations for future safety studies are proposed and monitoring documentation is provided. Significance: Our findings illustrate the importance of standardized monitoring of MAEs. Such research aids our understanding of how MAEs arise and may lead to interventions for reducing their incidence. (C) 2012 International Federation of Clinical Neurophysiology. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved

Contribution of vaccination to improved survival and health: modelling 50 years of the Expanded Programme on Immunization

Background: WHO, as requested by its member states, launched the Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) in 1974 to make life-saving vaccines available to all globally. To mark the 50-year anniversary of EPI, we sought to quantify the public health impact of vaccination globally since the programme's inception. Methods: In this modelling study, we used a suite of mathematical and statistical models to estimate the global and regional public health impact of 50 years of vaccination against 14 pathogens in EPI. For the modelled pathogens, we considered coverage of all routine and supplementary vaccines delivered since 1974 and estimated the mortality and morbidity averted for each age cohort relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. We then used these modelled outcomes to estimate the contribution of vaccination to globally declining infant and child mortality rates over this period. Findings: Since 1974, vaccination has averted 154 million deaths, including 146 million among children younger than 5 years of whom 101 million were infants younger than 1 year. For every death averted, 66 years of full health were gained on average, translating to 10·2 billion years of full health gained. We estimate that vaccination has accounted for 40% of the observed decline in global infant mortality, 52% in the African region. In 2024, a child younger than 10 years is 40% more likely to survive to their next birthday relative to a hypothetical scenario of no historical vaccination. Increased survival probability is observed even well into late adulthood. Interpretation: Since 1974 substantial gains in childhood survival have occurred in every global region. We estimate that EPI has provided the single greatest contribution to improved infant survival over the past 50 years. In the context of strengthening primary health care, our results show that equitable universal access to immunisation remains crucial to sustain health gains and continue to save future lives from preventable infectious mortality. Funding: WHO

Assessment and Intrinsic Motivation

Don’t ask [the teacher] what he wants. [The teacher] doesn’t want anything, instead ask yourself: ‘What do I want?’ StudentThere is evidence a large proportion of accounting students experience extrinsic motivation when studying accounting at university, which has a strong relationship to surface learning. The experience of intrinsic motivation is a necessary precondition for students to experience deep learning. This study examines how to use assessment to support accounting students to experience intrinsic motivation. A sample of 81 students in a third year undergraduate accounting course was studied employing a phenomenographic research approach, using 10 assessed learning tasks for each student (as well as a focus group and student surveys) to measure their experience of how they learn. A key finding is that it is possible to support a large proportion of students to experience intrinsic motivation through use of assessed learning tasks (as part of an integrated set of interventions) that are individualised (different for each student), authentic (involve the real world), include regular formative feedback and generally do not have ‘right’ answers but involve the use of personal judgement. Assessment design can support students to experience change in motivation and thus significantly impact learner outcomes