Scale invariant properties of public debt growth

Public debt is one of the important economic variables that quantitatively describes a nation's economy. Because bankruptcy is a risk faced even by institutions as large as governments (e.g. Iceland), national debt should be strictly controlled with respect to national wealth. Also, the problem of eliminating extreme poverty in the world is closely connected to the study of extremely poor debtor nations. We analyze the time evolution of national public debt and find "convergence": initially less-indebted countries increase their debt more quickly than initially more-indebted countries. We also analyze the public debt-to-GDP ratio R, a proxy for default risk, and approximate the probability density function P(R) with a Gamma distribution, which can be used to establish thresholds for sustainable debt. We also observe "convergence" in R: countries with initially small R increase their R more quickly than countries with initially large R. The scaling relationships for debt and R have practical applications, e.g. the Maastricht Treaty requires members of the European Monetary Union to maintain R < 0.6.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figure

NMR evidence for the persistence of spin-superlattice above the 1/8 magnetization plateau in SrCu2(BO3)2

We present 11B NMR studies of the 2D frustrated dimer spin system SrCu2(BO3)2 in the field range 27-31 T covering the upper phase boundary of the 1/8 magnetization plateau, identified at 28.4 T. Our data provide a clear evidence that above 28.4 T the spin-superlattice of the 1/8 plateau is modified but does not melt even though the magnetization increases. Although this is precisely what is expected for a supersolid phase, the microscopic nature of this new phase is much more complex. We discuss the field-temperature phase diagram on the basis of our NMR data.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figures, published versio

Systemic risk in dynamical networks with stochastic failure criterion

Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use dynamical network approach to evaluate the collective financial failure---systemic risk---quantified by the fraction of active nodes. The systemic risk can be calculated over any future time period, divided on sub-periods, where within each sub-period banks may contiguously fail due to links to either (i) assets or (ii) other banks, controlled by two parameters, probability of internal failure $p$ and threshold $T_h$ ("solvency" parameter). The systemic risk non-linearly increases with $p$ and decreases with average network degree faster when all assets are equally distributed across banks than if assets are randomly distributed. The more inactive banks each bank can sustain (smaller $T_h$), the smaller the systemic risk---for some $T_h$ values in I we report a discontinuity in systemic risk. When contiguous spreading becomes stochastic (ii) controlled by probability $p_2$---a condition for the bank to be solvent (active) is stochastic---the systemic risk decreases with decreasing $p_2$. We analyse asset allocation for the U.S. banks.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure

Neutron diffraction investigation of the H-T phase diagram above the longitudinal incommensurate phase of BaCo2V2O8

The quasi-one-dimensional antiferromagnetic Ising-like compound BaCo2V2O8 has been shown to be describable by the Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid theory in its gapless phase induced by a magnetic field applied along the Ising axis. Above 3.9 T, this leads to an exotic field-induced low-temperature magnetic order, made of a longitudinal incommensurate spin-density wave, stabilized by weak interchain interactions. By single-crystal neutron diffraction we explore the destabilization of this phase at a higher magnetic field. We evidence a transition at around 8.5 T towards a more conventional magnetic structure with antiferromagnetic components in the plane perpendicular to the magnetic field. The phase diagram boundaries and the nature of this second field-induced phase are discussed with respect to previous results obtained by means of nuclear magnetic resonance and electron spin resonance, and in the framework of the simple model based on the Tomonaga-Luttinger liquid theory, which obviously has to be refined in this complex system.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

Cross-correlations between volume change and price change

In finance, one usually deals not with prices but with growth rates $R$, defined as the difference in logarithm between two consecutive prices. Here we consider not the trading volume, but rather the volume growth rate $\tilde R$, the difference in logarithm between two consecutive values of trading volume. To this end, we use several methods to analyze the properties of volume changes $|\tilde R|$, and their relationship to price changes $|R|$. We analyze $14,981$ daily recordings of the S\&P 500 index over the 59-year period 1950--2009, and find power-law {\it cross-correlations\/} between $|R|$ and $|\tilde R|$ using detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA). We introduce a joint stochastic process that models these cross-correlations. Motivated by the relationship between $| R|$ and $|\tilde R|$, we estimate the tail exponent ${\tilde\alpha}$ of the probability density function $P(|\tilde R|) \sim |\tilde R|^{-1 -\tilde\alpha}$ for both the S\&P 500 index as well as the collection of 1819 constituents of the New York Stock Exchange Composite index on 17 July 2009. As a new method to estimate $\tilde\alpha$, we calculate the time intervals $\tau_q$ between events where $\tilde R>q$. We demonstrate that $\bar\tau_q$, the average of $\tau_q$, obeys $\bar \tau_q \sim q^{\tilde\alpha}$. We find $\tilde \alpha \approx 3$. Furthermore, by aggregating all $\tau_q$ values of 28 global financial indices, we also observe an approximate inverse cubic law.Comment: 7 pages, 5 figure

NMR evidence for a strong modulation of the Bose-Einstein Condensate in BaCuSi2_2O6_6

We present a $^{63,65}$Cu and $^{29}$Si NMR study of the quasi-2D coupled spin 1/2 dimer compound BaCuSi$_2$O$_6$ in the magnetic field range 13-26 T and at temperatures as low as 50 mK. NMR data in the gapped phase reveal that below 90 K different intra-dimer exchange couplings and different gaps ($\Delta_{\rm{B}}/\Delta_{\rm{A}}$ = 1.16) exist in every second plane along the c-axis, in addition to a planar incommensurate (IC) modulation. $^{29}$Si spectra in the field induced magnetic ordered phase reveal that close to the quantum critical point at $H_{\rm{c1}}$ = 23.35 T the average boson density $\bar{n}$ of the Bose-Einstein condensate is strongly modulated along the c-axis with a density ratio for every second plane $\bar{n}_{\rm{A}}/\bar{n}_{\rm{B}} \simeq 5$. An IC modulation of the local density is also present in each plane. This adds new constraints for the understanding of the 2D value $\phi$ = 1 of the critical exponent describing the phase boundary

Spin dynamics of the spin-Peierls compound CuGeO_3 under magnetic field

The magnetic field--driven transition in the spin-Peierls system CuGeO_3 associated with the closing of the spin gap is investigated numerically. The field dependence of the spin dynamical structure factor (seen by inelastic neutron scattering) and of the momentum dependent static susceptibility are calculated. In the dimerized phase (H<H_c), we suggest that the strong field dependence of the transverse susceptibility could be experimentally seen from the low temperature spin-echo relaxation rate 1/T_{2G} or the second moment of the NMR spectrum. Above H_c low energy spin excitations appear at incommensurate wave vectors where the longitudinal susceptibility chi_{zz}(q) peaks.Comment: 4 pages, LaTeX, postscript figures include