Artificial Intelligence, International Competition, and the Balance of Power (May 2018)

World leaders, CEOs, and academics have suggested that a revolution in artificial intelligence is upon us. Are they right, and what will advances in artificial intelligence mean for international competition and the balance of power? This article evaluates how developments in artificial intelligence (AI) — advanced, narrow applications in particular — are poised to influence military power and international politics. It describes how AI more closely resembles “enabling” technologies such as the combustion engine or electricity than a specific weapon. AI’s still-emerging developments make it harder to assess than many technological changes, especially since many of the organizational decisions about the adoption and uses of new technology that generally shape the impact of that technology are in their infancy. The article then explores the possibility that key drivers of AI development in the private sector could cause the rapid diffusion of military applications of AI, limiting first-mover advantages for innovators. Alternatively, given uncertainty about the technological trajectory of AI, it is also possible that military uses of AI will be harder to develop based on private-sector AI technologies than many expect, generating more potential first-mover advantages for existing powers such as China and the United States, as well as larger consequences for relative power if a country fails to adapt. Finally, the article discusses the extent to which U.S. military rhetoric about the importance of AI matches the reality of U.S. investments.LBJ School of Public Affair

Dams, Cows, and Vulnerable People: Anthropological Contributions to Sustainable Development

It is with considerable trepidation that I agreed to address so distinguished a gathering of development economists, theoreticians, and practitioners. I was enormously honoured when Professor Naqvi invited me to make this presentation, and at the same time impressed with my own temerity at having accepted. I am not an economist; at best, I contribute to the emerging discipline of economic anthropology, that subfield of anthropology that some have baptised as the “dismal science of the 20th century.” I locate my research within a subfield of that subfield, in a specifically development anthropology, making the claim that is still received in some quarters with only partial tolerance, that anthropologists–those curious people identified in the popular mind with the recovery and study of isolated people, bones, and potsherds–have also something useful to add to both the theory and praxis of development. As a self-conscious field of inquiry, development anthropology dates only from the last 20-25 years, though its roots can be found in the late 19th century, when scientists working for the United States Bureau of American Ethnology tried to understand the Ghost Dance, a great messianic movement that spread rapidly among subjugated Native Americans who were forced on to reservations by the government and in very large part deprived of the means of social and economic reproduction.

How Prior Military Experience Influences The Future Militarized Behavior Of Leaders

Streaming video requires Flash Player, RealPlayer, or Windows Media Player to view.Policy makers and much of the electorate take as a given that the life experiences of presidents, prime ministers, and other executives profoundly affect the way they will behave once in office. Most international conflict research, however, ignores leaders. Even recent work in international relations that discusses leaders nearly exclusively focuses on how political institutions drive the behavior of leaders, rather than on leaders themselves. Our research challenges the assumptions of traditional international relations research by turning the analytic focus to leaders and their personal developmental backgrounds. In particular, we suggest that individual differences in backgrounds affect relative risk taking, especially when it comes to militarized behavior. Specifically, this paper focuses on military backgrounds, a particularly poignant life experience with direct relevance for how leaders evaluate the utility of using force. This paper tests these propositions by developing and employing a new data set, building on Archigos, that encompasses the military, educational, occupational, and family background characteristics of almost 3,000 heads of state from around the globe from 1869-2004.Ohio State University. Mershon Center for International Security StudiesEvent Web page, streaming video, event photo

Western South Atlantic holocene and glacial deepwater hydrography derived from benthic foraminiferal Cd/Ca and stable carbon isotope data

Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution January 1999Today, deep waters produced in the North Atlantic are exported through the western South Atlantic. Antarctic intermediate water AAJW also enters the Atlantic in this region. Circumpolar deep water (CDW) fills the depths below AAIW and above and below northern source waters. A depth transect of cores from 1567-3909 m water depth in the western South Atlantic are ideally located to monitor inter-ocean exchange of deep water, and variations in the relative strength of northern versus southern source water production. Last glacial maximum (LGM) Cd/Ca and δ13C data indicate a nutrient-depleted intermediate-depth water mass. In the mid-depth western South Atlantic, a simple conversion of LGM δ13C data suggests significantly less nutrient enrichment than LGM Cd/Ca ratios, but Cd/Ca and δ13C data can be reconciled when plotted in CdW/δ13C space. Paired LGM Cd/Ca and δ13C data from mid-depth cores suggest increasingly nutrient rich waters below 2000 m, but do not require an increase in Southern Ocean water contribution relative to today. Cd/Ca data suggest no glacial-interglacial change in the hydrography of the deepest waters ofthe region. To maintain relatively low Cd/Ca ratios low nutrients in the deepest western South Atlantic waters, and in CDW in general, during the LGM requires an increased supply ofnutrient-depleted glacial North Atlantic intermediate water (GNA1W) and/or nutrient-depleted glacial Subantarctic surface waters to CDW to balance reduced NADW contribution to CDW. LGM Cd/Ca and δ13C data suggest strong GNA1W influence in the western South Atlantic which in turn implies export of GNAIW from the Atlantic, and entrainment of GNA1W into the Antarctic Circumpolar current

Western South Atlantic holocene and glacial deepwater hydrography derived from benthic foraminiferal Cd/Ca and stable carbon isotope data

Thesis (S.M.)--Joint Program in Oceanography (Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences; and the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution), 1999.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 16-21).Today, deep waters produced in the North Atlantic are exported through the western South Atlantic. Antarctic intermediate water (AAIW) also enters the Atlantic in this region. Circumpolar deep water (CDW) fills the depths below AAIW and above and below northern source waters. A depth transect of cores from 1567-3909 m water depth in the western South Atlantic are ideally located to monitor inter-ocean exchange of deep water, and variations in the relative strength of northern versus southern source water production. Last glacial maximum (LGM) Cd/Ca and 813C data indicate a nutrient-depleted intermediate-depth water mass. In the mid-depth western South Atlantic, a simple conversion of LGM 813C data suggests significantly less nutrient enrichment than LGM Cd/Ca ratios, but Cd/Ca and 613C data can be reconciled when plotted in CdW/ 13C space. Paired LGM Cd/Ca and S13C data from mid-depth cores suggest increasingly nutrient rich waters below 2000 m, but do not require an increase in Southern Ocean water contribution relative to today. Cd/Ca data suggest no glacial-interglacial change in the hydrography of the deepest waters of the region. To maintain relatively low Cd/Ca ratios (low nutrients) in the deepest western South Atlantic waters, and in CDW in general, during the LGM requires an increased supply of nutrient-depleted glacial North Atlantic intermediate water (GNAIW) and/or nutrient-depleted glacial Subantarctic surface waters to CDW to balance reduced NADW contribution to CDW. LGM Cd/Ca and 513C data suggest strong GNAIW influence in the western South Atlantic which in turn implies export of GNAIW from the Atlantic, and entrainment of GNAIW into the Antarctic Circumpolar current.by Michael Horowitz.S.M

Controlling Molecular-Scale Motion: Exact Predictions for Driven Stochastic Systems

Despite inherent randomness and thermal fluctuations, controllable molecular devices or molecular machines are currently being synthesized around the world. Many of these molecular complexes are non-autonomous in that they are manipulated by external stimuli. As these devices become more sophisticated, the need for a theoretical framework to describe them becomes more important. Many non-autonomous molecular machines are modeled as stochastic pumps: stochastic systems that are driven by time-dependent perturbations. A number of exact theoretical predictions have been made recently describing how stochastic pumps respond to arbitrary driving. This work investigates one such prediction, the current decomposition formula, and its consequences. The current decomposition formula is a theoretical formula that describes how stochastic systems respond to non-adiabatic time-dependent perturbations. This formula is derived for discrete stochastic pumps modeled as continuous-time Markov chains, as well as continuous stochastic pumps described as one-dimensional diffusions. In addition, a number of interesting consequences following from the current decomposition formula are reported. For stochastic pumps driven adiabatically (slowly), their response can be given a purely geometric interpretation. The geometric nature of adiabatic pumping is then exploited to develop a method for controlling non-autonomous molecular machines. As a second consequence of the current decomposition formula, a no-pumping theorem is proved which provides conditions for which stochastic pumps with detailed balance exhibit no net directed motion in response to non-adiabatic cyclic driving. This no-pumping theorem provides an explanation of experimental observations made on 2- and 3-catenanes

Blood pressure responses in healthy older people to 50 g carbohydrate drinks with differing glycaemic effects

The aim of the present study was to determine the effects on blood pressure response of 50 g carbohydrate drinks with differing glycaemic effects in ten healthy elderly subjects (age >65 years; randomized crossover design). Systolic (SBP), diastolic (DBP) and mean arterial (MAP) blood pressure, heart rate and plasma glucose levels were determined following ingestion of equal volumes (379 ml) of water and 50 g carbohydrate drinks with differing reported glycaemic indices (GI) (surrogate marker for glycaemic effect): (1) low-GI: Apple & Cherry Juice; (2) intermediate-GI: Fanta Orange; (3) high-glucose. Glucose (SBP and DBP P,0·001; MAP P¼0·005) and Fanta Orange (SBP P¼0·005; DBP and MAP P,0·001) ingestion caused a significant decrease in BP whilst blood pressure increased (SBP P¼0·008; MAP P¼0·005) from baseline following Apple & Cherry Juice ingestion. Water had no significant effect on postprandial blood pressure. Fanta Orange and Apple & Cherry Juice caused similar (P¼0·679) glycaemic effects, which were significantly greater than water, but lower than glucose (P,0·001). There was no significant correlation between the glycaemic effect of the carbohydrate drinks and there was no change in blood pressure from baseline (SBP r 20·123, P¼0·509; DBP r 20·051, P¼0·784; MAP r 20·069, P¼0·712). Apple & Cherry Juice and Fanta Orange had similar glycaemic effects, but differing effects on blood pressure. Therefore, it is unlikely that the glycaemic effect of a drink can be used to predict the subsequent cardiovascular response.Renuka Visvanathan, Richard Chen, Michael Horowitz and Ian Chapma

Using a rate-distortion curve to determine an ideal maximum video bit rate

The target bit rate for a video that is to be transported across a network to a receiver is typically determined by the maximum throughput of the network. Such an approach is incognizant of the statistical properties of the video source and can result in inefficient use of bandwidth and/or compute resources. This disclosure describes techniques, based on the rate-distortion curve of the video source and encoder, to determine an ideal maximum bit rate for a video encoder, e.g., a bit rate that produces excellent video quality without undue load on network or compute resources. The techniques automatically adapt to and account for statistical parameters of the video source such as spatial resolution, frame rate, source complexity, etc. The techniques are applicable to a wide variety of video encoder types

Bending the Automation Bias Curve: A Study of Human and AI-based Decision Making in National Security Contexts

Uses of artificial intelligence (AI), especially those powered by machine learning approaches, are growing in sectors and societies around the world. How will AI adoption proceed, especially in the international security realm? Research on automation bias suggests that humans can often be overconfident in AI, whereas research on algorithm aversion shows that, as the stakes of a decision rise, humans become more cautious about trusting algorithms. We theorize about the relationship between background knowledge about AI, trust in AI, and how these interact with other factors to influence the probability of automation bias in the international security context. We test these in a preregistered task identification experiment across a representative sample of 9000 adults in 9 countries with varying levels of AI industries. The results strongly support the theory, especially concerning AI background knowledge. A version of the Dunning Kruger effect appears to be at play, whereby those with the lowest level of experience with AI are slightly more likely to be algorithm-averse, then automation bias occurs at lower levels of knowledge before leveling off as a respondent's AI background reaches the highest levels. Additional results show effects from the task's difficulty, overall AI trust, and whether a human or AI decision aid is described as highly competent or less competent