Statistical Modelling and Variability of the Subtropical Front, New Zealand

Ocean fronts are narrow zones of intense dynamic activity that play an important role in global ocean-atmosphere interactions. Of particular significance is the circumglobal frontal system of the Southern Ocean where intermediate water masses are formed, heat, salt, nutrients and momentum are redistributed and carbon dioxide is absorbed. The northern limit of this frontal band is marked by the Subtropical Front, where subtropical gyre water convergences with colder subantarctic water. Owing to their highly variable nature, both in space and time, ocean fronts are notoriously difficult features to adequately sample using traditional in-situ techniques. We therefore propose a new and innovative statistical modelling approach to detecting and monitoring ocean fronts from AVHRR SST images. Weighted local likelihood is used to provide a nonparametric description of spatial variations in the position and strength of individual fronts within an image. Although we use the new algorithm on AVHRR data it is suitable for other satellite data or model output. The algorithm is used to study the spatial and temporal variability of a localized section of the Subtropical Front past New Zealand, known locally as the Southland Front. Twenty-one years (January 1985 to December 2005) of estimates of the front’s position, temperature and strength are examined using cross correlation and wavelet analysis to investigate the role that remote atmospheric and oceanic forcing relating to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation may play in interannual frontal variability. Cold (warm) anomalies are observed at the Southland Front three to four months after peak El Nino (La Nina) events. The gradient of the front changes one to two seasons in advance of extreme ENSO events suggesting that it may be used as a precursor to changes in the Southern Oscillation. There are strong seasonal dependencies to the correlation between ENSO indices and frontal characteristics. In addition, the frequency and phase relationships are inconsistent indicating that no one physical mechanism or mode of climate variability is responsible for the teleconnection

Coercive Control in Conflict

Today the phone threats start up again in the most awful way. I am terrified to be so closely monitored … a single nod makes me shut my Facebook account … less than fifteen minutes after posting a comment I get a phone call from him … all these thoughts make me an even more nervous creature. So they will not come into contact with my extreme anxiety, I steer clear of my friends … This quote is from Samar Yazbek and it describes her experience of living and working in Syria as a journalist in 2011

RRS James Clark Ross, 30 June-8 Aug 2017. The Changing Arctic Ocean Cruise JR16006

The Arctic environment is changing, rapidly. Sea ice concentrations and ice extent are decreasing, the ocean and atmosphere are warming, fresh water discharges are increasing and stratification, mixing and circulation regimes are altering. All these changes impact the Arctic Oceans ecosystem, from the sea surface to the sea floor. For example, longer and more expansive open water periods influence the timing and longevity of phytoplankton blooms which are important for sustaining life at all trophic levels, from tiny zooplankton in the water column and microscopic benthic fauna, right up to the whales and seals at the top of the food chain. Changes in the light and nutrient regimes have consequences for the amount and quality of particulate and dissolved organic matter, the cycling of nutrients in the water and sediments, and consequently the biodiversity of life that can be supported. The migration and grazing of zooplankton, behaviours that transfer huge quantities of carbon into the ocean interior, may also be affected. In 2017 the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) started an investment of £16 million in its 5-year Changing Arctic Ocean Programme (www.changing-arctic-ocean.ac.uk). The overarching aim of the programme is to better understand and quantify the impacts of climate change on Arctic ecosystems. The findings will ultimately inform our conservation and management strategies of polar regions. Four large projects were initially funded: ARISE (led by Claire Mahaffey, Uni. Liverpool), Arctic PRIZE (led by Finlo Cottier, SAMS), ChAOS (led by Christian März, Uni. Leeds) and DIAPOD (led by David Pond, SAMS). JR16006 was the first in a series of Changing Arctic Ocean cruises to the Barents Sea in support of all four projects. The overarching aim of the cruise was to collect a suite of pelagic and benthic samples across water mass (Atlantic to Arctic) and sea-ice gradients to enable: • Determination of dissolved and particulate organic material and inorganic nutrients • Estimation of water column primary production, phytoplankton community composition, photo-physiology and biomass • Foodweb tracer analysis using stable isotopes techniques • A mapping of the baseline ‘isoscape’ • Determination of the total zooplankton community and lipid content • Determination of the sediment and pore water geochemistry - amount of organic material and its degradation and interactions with biological processes (e.g., bioturbation, microbial community structures) • Determination of the structure, function (e.g. nitrogen cycling, bioturbation), diversity and reproductive state of benthic communities (from epifauna to meiofauna) • Determination of water column and seabed microbial community and diversity All of the 18 stations (B1- B18) identified pre-cruise were sampled by the ARISE, PRIZE and DIAPOD projects. The ChAOS project conducted extensive sediment and benthic fauna sampling at 6 of these stations (B3, B13-B17)

Coercive control in conflict: implications for Syria

In Coercive Control in Conflict: Implications for Syria, Joanne Hopkins explores how the concept of coercive control can be used to help us understand the continuum of violence experienced by men and women in the Syrian conflict. Hopkins moves beyond what most similar studies focus on, “… the use of physical violence by the state ….” and “… the state's systematic use of torture, imprisonment and rape …” and focuses instead on the “… need to understand the way that the state and other actors have employed a strategy of creating an atmosphere of fear alongside the physical acts of violence.”Publisher PD

Evaluation of a dual-scales method to measure weight-bearing through the legs, and effects of weight-bearing inequalities on hip bone mineral density and leg lean tissue mass.

Copyright © 2013 Foundation for Rehabilitation InformationOBJECTIVE: To investigate: the accuracy of measuring relative left/right weight-bearing using two identically calibrated weighing scales; the short-term weight-bearing tendencies in a general population of 9 participants and long-term in 42 females; the effect weight-bearing inequalities on hip bone mineral density and leg lean tissue mass. Method: Participants were measured standing astride two scales. Short-term volunteers were measured 10 times on one visit, with repositioning between measurements and the long-term group were measured on three visits at 6 month intervals. Baseline bilateral hip and total body Dual X-ray Absorptiometry scans were performed on the long-term group. RESULTS: The short-term Coefficient of Variation is 5.41% and long-term 7.01%. No significant correlations were found between hip bone density differences and weight-bearing inequalities, although a weak correlation of r = 0.31 (p = 0.047) was found for differences in leg lean tissue mass. CONCLUSION: Left/right weight-bearing measured using two scales is a consistent method for evaluating weight distribution through the legs. The short- and long-term weight-bearing tendencies showed a similar degree of variation. Weight-bearing inequalities were not associated with any significant left/right differences in bone mineral density at the hip, but were weakly associated with left-right differences in leg muscle mass

Weight Gain in High-Risk Pregnant Women: Comparison by Primary Diagnosis and Type of Care

Reasonable weight gain in pregnancy is essential for the health of the woman and fetus. The purpose of this secondary analysis was to examine patterns of prenatal weight gain in women with diabetes and hypertension using data from a randomized controlled trial examining physician-only (n = 29) versus APN and physician-delivered (n = 38) prenatal care. Data collection included gestational age at enrollment, delivery, diagnosis (diabetes, hypertension), prepregnancy body mass index (BMI), weight every 4 weeks during pregnancy, and total weight gain during pregnancy. Based on prepregnancy BMI, 21% of the sample was normal weight, 16% overweight, and 63% obese. There were no significant differences between physician versus APN and physician prenatal care and weight gained during pregnancy; the trend in favor of APN and physician care was evident. For women entering pregnancy with a chronic health condition, compounded by obesity, education on nutrition, diet, and behavioral modification is essential