Discussion of Preston, "Learning about monetary policy rules when long-horizon expectations matter"

The design of interest rate rules for conducting monetary policy have recently been examined for two key concerns. The first issue is determinacy of equilibria. Indeterminacy (multiplicity of stationary rational expectations equilibria) is a concern in models of monopolistic competition and price stickiness are currently a popular framework for the study of monetary policy. The second issue is stability of equilibria under adaptive learning. Some interest rate rules do not perform well when the expectations of the agents get out of equilibrium, e.g. as a result of structural shifts.Equilibrium (Economics) ; Monetary policy ; Macroeconomics

The 1990’s financial crises in Nordic countries

The current financial crisis, which has lasted almost one and a half years, is the 19th such crisis in the post-war period in advanced economies. Recent literature classifies the Nordic crises in Norway, Sweden and Finland in late 1980's and early 1990’s among the Big Five crises that have happened before the current crisis, which is now of a global nature. This paper outlines the developments of the Nordic crises, reasons behind them and crisis management by the authorities. Relatively more emphasis is placed on the Finnish crisis, as it was the deepest one. The paper concludes by considering the lessons that can be drawn from the Nordic crises.financial deregulation; bank lending; overheating; financial crisis

Adaptive Learning in Stochastic Nonlinear Models When Shocks Follow a Markov Chain.

Local convergence results for adaptive learning of stochastic steady states in nonlinear models are extended to the case where the exogenous observable variables follow a ?nite Markov chain. The stability conditions for the corresponding nonstochastic model and its steady states yield convergence for the stochastic model when shocks are suf?ciently small. The results are applied to asset pricing and to an overlapping generations model. Large shocks can destabilize learning even if the steady state is stable with small shocks.bounded rationality; recursive algorithms; steady state; linearization; asset pricing; overlapping generations

Learning Stability in Economies with Heterogenous Agents

An economy exhibits structural heterogeneity when the forecasts of different agents have different effects on the determination of aggregate variables. Various forms of structural heterogeneity can arise and we study the important case of economies in which agents' behavior depends on forecasts of aggregate variables and show how different forms of heterogeneity in structure, forecasts, and adaptive learning rules affect the conditions for convergence of adaptive learning towards rational expectations equilibrium. Results are applied to the market model with supply lags and a New Keynesian model of interest rate setting.adaptive learning, expectations formation, stability of equilibrium, market model, monetary policy.

Performance of Inflation Targeting Based On Constant Interest Rate Projections

Monetary policy is sometimes formulated in terms of a target level of inflation, a fixed time horizon and a constant interest rate that is anticipated to achieve the target at the specified horizon. These requirements lead to constant interest rate (CIR)instrument rules. Using the standard New Keynesian model, it is shown that some forms of CIR policy lead to both indeterminacy of equilibria and instability under adaptive learning. However, some other forms of CIR policy perform better. We also examine the properties of the different policy rules in the presence of inertial demand and price behaviour.Indeterminacy, instability under learning, inflation targeting, inertia in demand, inflation inertia

Learning with Bounded Memory in Stochastic Models

Learning with bounded memory in stochastic frameworks is incomplete in the sense that the learning dynamics cannot converge to an rational expectations equilibrium (REE). The properties of the dynamics arising from such rules are studied for models with steady states. If in standard linear models the REE is in a certain sense expectationally stable (E-stable), then the dynamics are asymptotically stationary and forecasts are unbiased. We also provide similar local results for a class of nonlinear models with small noise and their approximations.Bounded memory; expectational stability; unbiased.

Non-Trivial Equilibrium in an Economy With Stochastic Rationing

Stochastic rationing when the market does not clear draws attention because both Dreze (1975) and Benassy (1975) quantity-constrained equilibria have some undesirable features. Gale (1978)gave the existence proof of trade under uncertainty. His stochastic rationing depends on all the individual effective demands. It is too vague to characterize a rationing mechanism. Moreover, his assumption to ensure a non-trivial equilibrium is economically not clear. In this paper we extend Green (1978) to characterizing the rationing scheme as the individual effective demand times the rationing number which is a function of the aggregate quantity signals. We also construct an economy with money and overlapping generations. We show the existence of the non-trivial equilibrium and provide an example of a non-Wairasian equilibrium at the Walrasian equilibrium prices.

Are Non-Fundamental Equilibria Learnable in Models of Monetary Policy?.

Recent models of monetary policy can have indeterminacy of equilibria. The indeterminacy property is often viewed as a difficulty of these models. We consider its significance using the learning approach to expectations formation by employing expectational stability as a robustness criterion for different equilibria. We derive the expectational stability and instability conditions for forward-looking multivariate models, both with and without lags, that cover a wide range of monetary policies proposed in the literature.Adaptive learning, stability, sunspots, monetary policy.