Prediction of remaining life of power transformers based on left truncated and right censored lifetime data

Prediction of the remaining life of high-voltage power transformers is an important issue for energy companies because of the need for planning maintenance and capital expenditures. Lifetime data for such transformers are complicated because transformer lifetimes can extend over many decades and transformer designs and manufacturing practices have evolved. We were asked to develop statistically-based predictions for the lifetimes of an energy company's fleet of high-voltage transmission and distribution transformers. The company's data records begin in 1980, providing information on installation and failure dates of transformers. Although the dataset contains many units that were installed before 1980, there is no information about units that were installed and failed before 1980. Thus, the data are left truncated and right censored. We use a parametric lifetime model to describe the lifetime distribution of individual transformers. We develop a statistical procedure, based on age-adjusted life distributions, for computing a prediction interval for remaining life for individual transformers now in service. We then extend these ideas to provide predictions and prediction intervals for the cumulative number of failures, over a range of time, for the overall fleet of transformers.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/00-AOAS231 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Aneurysmal degeneration of blalock-taussig shunts: Identification and surgical treatment options

Many Blalock-Taussig shunts (subclavian to pulmonary artery anastomoses) have been created and a significant number are still being done. Two cases of aneurysmal degeneration of a Blalock-Taussig shunt and their management are described. Development of this rare complication may be related to large shunt flow and long duration. Large, symptomatic or enlarging aneurysms should be repaired and smaller ones studied by serial computed axial tomography. A simple and safe approach to correct this lesion is division and oversewing of the proximal subclavian artery through an anterior approach, assuming adequate pulmonary blood flow is already present or can be established concomitantly

Microwave Brightness Temperatures of Tilted Convective Systems

Aircraft and ground-based radar data from the Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Coupled-Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE) show that convective systems are not always vertical. Instead, many are tilted from vertical. Satellite passive microwave radiometers observe the atmosphere at a viewing angle. For example, the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) on Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites and the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) on the TRMM satellite have an incident angle of about 50deg. Thus, the brightness temperature measured from one direction of tilt may be different than that viewed from the opposite direction due to the different optical depth. This paper presents the investigation of passive microwave brightness temperatures of tilted convective systems. To account for the effect of tilt, a 3-D backward Monte Carlo radiative transfer model has been applied to a simple tilted cloud model and a dynamically evolving cloud model to derive the brightness temperature. The radiative transfer results indicate that brightness temperature varies when the viewing angle changes because of the different optical depth. The tilt increases the displacements between high 19 GHz brightness temperature (Tb(sub 19)) due to liquid emission from lower level of cloud and the low 85 GHz brightness temperature (Tb(sub 85)) due to ice scattering from upper level of cloud. As the resolution degrades, the difference of brightness temperature due to the change of viewing angle decreases dramatically. The dislocation between Tb(sub 19) and Tb(sub 85), however, remains prominent

Gender dimorphism and age of onset in malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor preclinical models and human patients.

BackgroundGender-based differences in disease onset in murine models of malignant peripheral nerve sheath tumor (MPNST) and in patients with Neurofibromatosis type-1-(NF-1)-associated or spontaneous MPNST has not been well studied.MethodsForty-three mGFAP-Cre+;Ptenloxp/+;LSL-K-rasG12D/+ mice were observed for tumor development and evaluated for gender disparity in age of MPNST onset. Patient data from the prospectively collected UCLA sarcoma database (1974-2011, n = 113 MPNST patients) and 39 published studies on MPNST patients (n = 916) were analyzed for age of onset differences between sexes and between NF-1 and spontaneous MPNST patients.ResultsOur murine model showed gender-based differences in MPNST onset, with males developing MPNST significantly earlier than females (142 vs. 162 days, p = 0.015). In the UCLA patient population, males also developed MPNST earlier than females (median age 35 vs. 39.5 years, p = 0.048). Patients with NF-1-associated MPNST had significantly earlier age of onset compared to spontaneous MPNST (median age 33 vs. 39 years, p = 0.007). However, expanded analysis of 916 published MPNST cases revealed no significant age difference in MPNST onset between males and females. Similar to the UCLA dataset, patients with NF-1 developed MPNST at a significantly younger age than spontaneous MPNST patients (p < 0.0001, median age 28 vs. 41 years) and this disparity was maintained across North American, European, and Asian populations.ConclusionsAlthough our preclinical model and single-institution patient cohort show gender dimorphism in MPNST onset, no significant gender disparity was detected in the larger MPNST patient meta-dataset. NF-1 patients develop MPNST 13 years earlier than patients with spontaneous MPNST, with little geographical variance

Wide-band-gap InAlAs solar cell for an alternative multijunction approach

We have fabricated an In_(0.52)Al_(0.48)As solar cell lattice-matched to InP with efficiency higher than 14% and maximum external quantum efficiency equal to 81%. High quality, dislocation-free In_xAl_(1−x)As alloyed layers were used to fabricate the single junction solar cell. Photoluminescence of In_xAl_(1−x)As showed good material quality and lifetime of over 200 ps. A high band gap In_(0.35)Al_(0.65)As window was used to increase light absorption within the p-n absorber layer and improve cell efficiency, despite strain. The InAlAs top cell reported here is a key building block for an InP-based three junction high efficiency solar cell consisting of InAlAs/InGaAsP/InGaAs lattice-matched to the substrate

Genetic and environmental influences on sleep quality in middle‐aged men: a twin study

Poor sleep quality is a risk factor for a number of cognitive and physiological age-related disorders. Identifying factors underlying sleep quality are important in understanding the etiology of these age-related health disorders. We investigated the extent to which genes and the environment contribute to subjective sleep quality in middle-aged male twins using the classical twin design. We used the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index to measure sleep quality in 1218 middle-aged twin men from the Vietnam Era Twin Study of Aging (mean age = 55.4 years; range 51-60; 339 monozygotic twin pairs, 257 dizygotic twin pairs, 26 unpaired twins). The mean PSQI global score was 5.6 [SD = 3.6; range 0-20]. Based on univariate twin models, 34% of variability in the global PSQI score was due to additive genetic effects (heritability) and 66% was attributed to individual-specific environmental factors. Common environment did not contribute to the variability. Similarly, the heritability of poor sleep-a dichotomous measure based on the cut-off of global PSQI>5-was 31%, with no contribution of the common environment. Heritability of six of the seven PSQI component scores (subjective sleep quality, sleep latency, sleep duration, habitual sleep efficiency, sleep disturbances, and daytime dysfunction) ranged from 0.15 to 0.31, whereas no genetic influences contributed to the use of sleeping medication. Additive genetic influences contribute to approximately one-third of the variability of global subjective sleep quality. Our results in middle-aged men constitute a first step towards examination of the genetic relationship between sleep and other facets of aging.Accepted manuscrip