Instabilidade e incerteza: curva IS com dados de longo prazo

The IS Curve is the tool with which economists evaluate the restrictive impact of the interest rate on the GDP. This paper presents an estimate of the IS Curve for the Brazilian economy that incorporates data since 1980, that is, also covering the high inflation period. Two undesirable consequences require special attention when we consider this larger sample period. First, the switch in the regime might represent different data generating processes (problem known as structural break). Another effect is a change in the statistical precision with which coefficients can be estimated, consequence of the heterogeneity in the variance of the residuals (a problem called heteroskedasticity). Once these potential problems are controlled, this exercise becomes relevant since, as we will show later, empirical analysis that include in their sample period only data after the beginning of the Real Plan (that is, of the stabilized economy) fail to capture the influence of variables of unquestionable theoretical importance. We illustrate this point by analyzing the effect of the external environment on the internal growth, emphasizing the export channel.IS curve, heteroskedasticity, FGLS

Contas externas e política monetária

Neste artigo estamos interessados na relação entre a taxa de câmbio, a taxa de juros, o Balanço de Pagamentos e seu financiamento, para a economia brasileira pós-Plano Real. A Política Monetária possui dois efeitos importantes sobre a questão do financiamento das contas externas. Em primeiro lugar, aumentos na taxa de juros elevam a disponibilidade de capitais de curto prazo, via atração de investimentos em renda fixa. Em segundo lugar, aumentos na taxa de juros ou aumentos na taxa de câmbio reduzem o tamanho do déficit em conta corrente, a partir de seus efeitos sobre o saldo das exportações líquidas de bens e serviços não fatores. Neste artigo analisaremos as duas vias, apesar de a primeira ter perdido importância a partir de 1999, quando o governo comprometeu-se a limitar o seu déficit em conta corrente à oferta disponível de investimentos diretos. Em artigo anterior, mostramos que a adoção de um ICM não necessariamente prestaria os serviços que dele se poderia esperar, do ponto de vista dos custos de desemprego de uma redução de 2 p.p. na meta inflacionária. Neste artigo, baseado nos efeitos estimados da taxa de câmbio e da taxa de juros sobre as contas externas, concluímos que o ICM pode ser útil como um indicador das pressões futuras sobre as contas externas do País. Assim, programas monetário-cambiais dirigidos para o controle do déficit em conta corrente (ou alternativamente, o saldo comercial ou as exportações líquidas) podem ser montados a partir de um indicador deste tipo. É claro que se a restrição externa for ativa, ou seja, sempre que o crescimento econômico estiver restrito pelo financiamento externo, o acompanhamento de um indicador deste tipo pode ser útil para examinar-se os efeitos de prazo médio da política monetário-cambial, na liberação dessa restrição.

Juros e câmbio: haverá combinações de instrumentos menos desgastantes para as metas de inflação?

O objetivo deste artigo é examinar de que forma a fixação dos juros, em princípio, pode ser adaptada para levar em consideração situações de excessos de oferta de capitais externos, através do Índice de Condições Monetárias. Ao compararmos os possíveis efeitos dessa estratégia em países com características diferentes, apontamos dois problemas. O primeiro diz respeito ao efeito sinalizador do câmbio sobre os fluxos e sobre as despesas domésticas. O segundo diz respeito aos mecanismos de transmissão do câmbio para o nível de atividade. Os mecanismos de transmissão dos movimentos de câmbio ao produto resultam de três efeitos: a) do câmbio sobre o saldo comercial; b) das exportações líquidas sobre o nível de atividade e, finalmente, da relação entre câmbio e nível de atividade, via inflação. O artigo apresenta evidências de que o saldo comercial é mais sensível a curto prazo ao nível de atividade do que ao câmbio; de que a causalidade é que a recessão precede as melhorias de saldo comercial; e de que a taxa de câmbio tem-se mostrado negativamente correlacionada ao nível de atividade. Ou seja, aumentos da taxa de câmbio real têm convivido com aumentos da recessão, o que nos leva a questionar se o papel do câmbio como mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária pode justificar o uso do câmbio como alternativa para a desgastante política de juros elevados. O objetivo de tentar obter combinações de saldos comerciais e nível de atividade que sejam politicamente mais atraentes a curto prazo, é, assim, dificultado, acreditando-se na evidência que pudemos recolher.

Juros e câmbio: haverá combinações de instrumentos menos desgastantes para as metas de inflação?

The main objective of this article is to examine to what extent the determination of the interest rate can be adapted to take into account situations of an excessive offer of external capitals, through the Monetary Conditions Index. This paper presents some evidences that the trade balance is more sensitive to activity level than to exchange-rate in the short-run; that the causality order is as follows: recession precedes improved trade balances; that the exchange-rate has been negatively correlated to activity level. It means that increases in the real exchange-rate and deepens in recession can be seen in the economy, which leads us towonder if the exchange-rate role as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy can justify the use of exchange-rate policies as an alternative to the stale high interest-rate policy

Juros e câmbio: haverá combinações de instrumentos menos desgastantes para as metas de inflação?

The main objective of this article is to examine to what extent the determination of the interest rate can be adapted to take into account situations of an excessive offer of external capitals, through the Monetary Conditions Index. This paper presents some evidences that the trade balance is more sensitive to activity level than to exchange-rate in the short-run; that the causality order is as follows: recession precedes improved trade balances; that the exchange-rate has been negatively correlated to activity level. It means that increases in the real exchange-rate and deepens in recession can be seen in the economy, which leads us towonder if the exchange-rate role as a transmission mechanism of monetary policy can justify the use of exchange-rate policies as an alternative to the stale high interest-rate policy

Juros, câmbio e as imperfeições do canal do crédito

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar o papel do crédito como mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária. Inicialmente apresentamos uma descrição teórica do canal de crédito de uma economia estilizada e quantificamos os efeitos do canal de crédito na economia brasileira via estimação de uma equação de demanda por crédito. Examinamos, então, o canal de crédito como transmissor dos choques de demanda, via balanço das empresas, atuando como um "multiplicador financeiro" desses choques. Por fim, apresentamos evidência empírica da atuação deste "multiplicador financeiro" na economia brasileira por meio de movimentos da taxa de câmbio, o que permite dar uma explicação para os efeitos prolongados de crises cambiais sobre o crescimento.The objective of this paper is to analyze the role of credit as a monetary policy transmission mechanism. First we present a theoretical description of the credit channel of a stylized economy and then quantify the effects of the credit channel on the Brazilian economy by estimating a credit demand equation. We, then, focus on the credit channel as a transmitter of demand shocks via firms' balance sheets, functioning as "financial multiplier" of those shocks. Concluding, we analyze the empirical evidence of that "financial multiplier" through which movements in the exchange rate impact the Brazilian economy, a possible explanation for lasting effects of exchange rate crises on economic growth

Early combined treatment with sildenafil and adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cells preserves heart function in rat dilated cardiomyopathy

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We investigated whether early combined autologous adipose-derived mesenchymal stem cell (ADMSC) and sildenafil therapy offers an additive benefit in preserving heart function in rat dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Adult Lewis rats (n = 8 per group) were divided into group 1 (normal control), group 2 (saline-treated DCM rats), group 3 [2.0 × 10⁶ADMSC implanted into left ventricular (LV) myocardium of DCM rats], group 4 (DCM rats with sildenafil 30 mg/kg/day, orally), and group 5 (DCM rats with combined ADMSC-sildenafil). Treatment was started 1 week after DCM induction and the rats were sacrificed on day 90.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The results showed that mitochondrial protein expressions of connexin43 and cytochrome-C were lowest in group 2, and lower in groups 3 and 4 than in group 5 (p < 0.002). Conversely, oxidative index was highest in group 2, and also higher in groups 3 and 4 than in group 5 (p < 0.0003). The mRNA expressions of interleukin (IL)-10, Gro/IL-8, endothelial nitric oxide synthase, and Bcl-2 were lowest in group 2, and lower in groups 3 and 4 compared with group 5 (p < 0.0001). The mRNA expressions of matrix metalloproteinase-9, Bax, caspase 3, and stromal-cell derived factor-1α were highest in group 2, and higher in groups 3 and 4 than in group 5 (p < 0.0004). Apoptosis and fibrosis in LV myocardium were most prominent in group 2 and higher in groups 3 and 4 than in group 5, whereas angiogenesis and LV ejection fraction were lowest in group 2 and lower in groups 3 and 4 than in group 5 (p < 0.003).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Early combined ADMSC/sildenafil is superior to either treatment alone in preserving LV function.</p

Metabolic syndrome and abdominal fat are associated with inflammation, but not with clinical outcomes, in peritoneal dialysis patients

BACKGROUND: In the general population, metabolic syndrome (MetS) is correlated with visceral fat and a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, little is known about the significance of abdominal fat and its association with inflammation and medication use in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients. We investigated the relationship of visceral fat area (VFA) with C-reactive protein (CRP) levels and medication use in PD patients and followed their clinical outcomes. METHODS: In a prospective study from February 2009 to February 2012, we assessed diabetes mellitus (DM) status, clinical and PD-associated characteristics, medication use, CRP levels, components of MetS, and VFA in 183 PD patients. These patients were categorized into 3 groups based on MetS and DM status: non-MetS (group 1, n = 73), MetS (group 2, n = 65), and DM (group 3, n = 45). VFA was evaluated by computed tomography (CT) and corrected for body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: Patients in group 1 had smaller VFAs than patients in groups 2 and 3 (3.2 ± 1.8, 4.6 ± 1.9, and 4.9 ± 2.0 cm(2)/[kg/m(2)], respectively, P < 0.05) and lower CRP levels (0.97 ± 2.31, 1.27 ± 2.57, and 1.11 ± 1.35 mg/dL, respectively, P < 0.05). VFA increased with the number of criteria met for MetS. After adjusting for age, body weight, and sex, CRP and albumin levels functioned as independent positive predictors of VFA; on other hand, the use of renin-angiotensin system blockers was inversely correlated with VFA in PD patients without DM. In the survival analysis, DM patients (group 3) had the poorest survival among the 3 groups, but no significant differences were found between groups 1 and 2. CONCLUSION: This study showed that VFA and MetS are associated with CRP levels but cannot predict survival in PD patients without DM. The complex relationship of nutritional parameters to VFA and MetS may explain these results. The type of antihypertensive medication used was also associated with the VFA. The mechanisms behind these findings warrant further investigation

Hazard-based risk grouping effectively stratifying breast cancer patients in post-irradiation long-term heart diseases: a population-based cohort study

BackgroundEven though advanced radiotherapy techniques provide a better protective effect on surrounding normal tissues, the late sequelae from radiation exposure to the heart are still considerable in breast cancer patients. The present population-based study explored the role of cox-regression-based hazard risk grouping and intended to stratify patients with post-irradiation long-term heart diseases.Materials and methodsThe present study investigated the Taiwan National Health Insurance (TNHI) database. From 2000 to 2017, we identified 158,798 breast cancer patients. Using a propensity score match of 1:1, we included 21,123 patients in each left and right breast irradiation cohort. Heart diseases, including heart failure (HF), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and other heart diseases (OHD), and anticancer agents, including epirubicin, doxorubicin, and trastuzumab, were included for analysis.ResultsPatients received left breast irradiation demonstrated increased risks on IHD (aHR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.06–1.26; p &lt; 0.01) and OHD (aHR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01–1.15; p &lt; 0.05), but not HF (aHR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.96–1.28; p = 0.14), when compared with patients received right breast irradiation. In patients who received left breast irradiation dose of &gt;6,040 cGy, subsequent epirubicin might have a trend to increase the risk of heart failure (aHR, 1.53; 95% CI, 0.98–2.39; p = 0.058), while doxorubicin (aHR, 0.59; 95% CI, 0.26–1.32; p = 0.19) and trastuzumab (aHR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.33–2.62; p = 0.89) did not. Older age was the highest independent risk factor for post-irradiation long-term heart diseases.ConclusionGenerally, systemic anticancer agents are safe in conjunction with radiotherapy for managing post-operative breast cancer patients. Hazard-based risk grouping may help stratify breast cancer patients associated with post-irradiation long-term heart diseases. Notably, radiotherapy should be performed cautiously for elderly left breast cancer patients who received epirubicin. Limited irradiation dose to the heart should be critically considered. Regular monitoring of potential signs of heart failure may be conducted