Deling av arbeid, arbeidsløshet og miljøproblemer - en drøfting av noen kortsiktige og langsiktige sammenhenger

The aim of the project is to discuss the links between technological development, unemployment, work sharing and some environmental issues. The discussion explores whether reduced working hours in general are likely to generate reduced pollution and other environmental benefits. Although several environmental problems are mentioned, the focus is mainly on greenhouse gas emissions. The conclusion is that there might be some environmental gains from reduced working hours in the short term, but this conclusion is not robust. In the discussion of the long-term consequences, the importance of technological development is emphasized. Especially in connection with global warming, for example the technological development within new renewable energy production is of special interest. In the literature on endogenous growth the role of the working force and "learning by doing" are emphasized. A simple model with endogenous technological development is used to illustrate that there is a risk that reduced working hours could make reductions of greenhouse gas emissions more difficult

A comparison of taxes and tradable permits in national climate policy

This article discusses domestic climate policy design in a country that has made a binding commitment to the Kyoto Protocol but at the same time want to limit the number of industry shutdowns that follows from the policy. It is furthermore considered how public budget constraints might affect climate policies. The similarities between an optimally-designed taxation regime and a domestic tradable permit regime that is integrated into the international permit market are brought into focus. The similarities presuppose a greenhouse gas tax that fluctuates in accordance with the international permit price. It is argued that climate policy can generate double dividends, but that the allocation of free permits reduces these dividends. It is concluded that some organisations promotion of systems tradable permits, with distribution of permits free of charge, as an alternative to carbon taxes must be understood from their effect on income distribution. The paper is to a large extent based on an article, Holtsmark (1999), written in Norwegian and prepared for presentation at a seminar held by the Norwegian Ministry of Finance in November 1998. I gratefully acknowledge Lynn P. Nygaard's translation to English. Valuable comments on the Norwegian article from Cathrine Hagem, Michael Hoel and Jon Vislie were also appreciated

Om ikke føre var så etter snar : noen merknader til pensjonskommisjonens foreløpige innstilling

Finansminister Per-Kristian Foss ga nylig uttrykk for at regelstyrt utgiftsvekst gir ham liten handlefrihet i utformingen av statsbudsjettet. Det kan være en forsmak på hvordan våre fremtidige finansministere etter hvert vil få det. Dersom regelverket ikke endres, vil folketrygdens utgifter til alderspensjoner i trettiårsperioden fra 2010 til 2040 vokse med rundt regnet tre milliarder kroner pr år. På toppen av dette kommer voksende statlige AFP-bidrag og statlige tjenestepensjoner

Generasjonsregnskapet og statens underskudd

I august i år la professor E. Steigum, sammen med sine amerikanske kolleger A.J. Auerbach, J. Gokhale og L.J. Kotlikoff, frem et såkalt generasjonsregnskap for Norge; Steigum et al. (1993). Med dette "regnskapet" mener Steigum et al. å ha vist at dersom dagens offentlige politikk videreføres, vil framtidige generasjoner få en netto skattebelastning som er omlag dobbelt så høy som dagens, og de mener derfor at politikken ikke er opprettholdbar. I denne kommentaren trekkes frem en del momenter som tyder på at de tallene som til nå er presentert gir et skjevt bilde av situasjonen

Global per capita CO2 emissions - stable in the long run?

Abstract: Global per capita CO2 emissions have been relatively stable during the last decades. It has been suggested that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its scenario makers have ignored this stability. This paper presents a simple analytical framework explaining generally the stability of global per capita CO2 emissions during the last decades. The same analytical framework, supported by numerical illustrations, indicates that this stability is unlikely to persist and that current trends in regional per capita emissions are in close agreement with the IPCC scenarios. Keywords: Global carbon emissions, SRES, IPCC, scenarios