THE EFFECTS OF FUTURES TRADING BY LARGE HEDGE FUNDS AND CTAS ON MARKET VOLATILITY

This study uses the newly available data from the CFTC to investigate the market impact of futures trading by large hedge funds and CTAs. Regression results show that there is a positive relationship between the trading volume of large hedge funds and CTAs and market volatility. However, a positive relationship between hedge fund and CTA trading volume and market volatility is consistent with either a private information or noise trader hypothesis. Three additional tests are conducted to distinguish between the private information hypothesis and the noise trader hypothesis. The first test consisted of identifying the noise component exhibited in return variances over different holding periods. The variance ratio tests provide little support for the noise trader hypothesis. The second test examined whether positive feedback trading characterized large hedge fund and CTA trading behavior. These results suggest that trading decisions by large hedge funds and CTAs, although influenced in small part by past price changes, are not driven by past price changes. The third test consists of estimating the profits and losses associated with the open interest positions of large hedge funds and CTAs. This test is based on the argument that speculative trading can only be destabilizing if speculators buy when prices are high and sell when prices are low, which in turn, implies that destabilizing speculators lose money. Across all thirteen markets, the profit for large hedge funds and CTAs is estimated to be just under $400 million. This implies that the trading decisions are likely based on valuable private information. Overall, the evidence presented in this study suggests trading by large hedge funds and CTAs is based on private fundamental information. These findings imply large hedge funds and CTAs benefit market efficiency by bringing valuable, fundamental information to the market through their trading.hedge fund, commodity trading advisor, volatility, market efficiency, futures markets, Marketing,

An Integrated TCGA Pan-Cancer Clinical Data Resource to Drive High-Quality Survival Outcome Analytics

For a decade, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) program collected clinicopathologic annotation data along with multi-platform molecular profiles of more than 11,000 human tumors across 33 different cancer types. TCGA clinical data contain key features representing the democratized nature of the data collection process. To ensure proper use of this large clinical dataset associated with genomic features, we developed a standardized dataset named the TCGA Pan-Cancer Clinical Data Resource (TCGA-CDR), which includes four major clinical outcome endpoints. In addition to detailing major challenges and statistical limitations encountered during the effort of integrating the acquired clinical data, we present a summary that includes endpoint usage recommendations for each cancer type. These TCGA-CDR findings appear to be consistent with cancer genomics studies independent of the TCGA effort and provide opportunities for investigating cancer biology using clinical correlates at an unprecedented scale. Analysis of clinicopathologic annotations for over 11,000 cancer patients in the TCGA program leads to the generation of TCGA Clinical Data Resource, which provides recommendations of clinical outcome endpoint usage for 33 cancer types

The compensatory potential of increased immigration following intensive American mink population control is diluted by male-biased dispersal

Attempts to mitigate the impact of invasive species on native ecosystems increasingly target large land masses where control, rather than eradication, is the management objective. Depressing numbers of invasive species to a level where their impact on native biodiversity is tolerable requires overcoming the impact of compensatory immigration from non-controlled portions of the landscape. Because of the expected scale-dependency of dispersal, the overall size of invasive species management areas relative to the dispersal ability of the controlled species will determine the size of any effectively conserved core area unaffected by immigration from surrounding areas. However, when dispersal is male-biased, as in many mammalian invasive carnivores, males may be overrepresented amongst immigrants, reducing the potential growth rate of invasive species populations in re-invaded areas. Using data collected from a project that gradually imposed spatially comprehensive control on invasive American mink (Neovison vison) over a 10,000 km2 area of NE Scotland, we show that mink captures were reduced to almost zero in 3 years, whilst there was a threefold increase in the proportion of male immigrants. Dispersal was often long distance and linking adjacent river catchments, asymptoting at 38 and 31 km for males and females respectively. Breeding and dispersal were spatially heterogeneous, with 40 % of river sections accounting for most captures of juvenile (85 %), adult female (65 %) and immigrant (57 %) mink. Concentrating control effort on such areas, so as to turn them into “attractive dispersal sinks” could make a disproportionate contribution to the management of recurrent re-invasion of mainland invasive species management areas

Initial Visible and Mid-IR Characterization of P/2019 LD₂ (ATLAS), an Active Transitioning Centaur Among the Trojans, with Hubble, Spitzer, ZTF, Keck, APO and GROWTH Imaging and Spectroscopy

We present visible and mid-infrared imagery and photometry of Jovian co-orbital comet P/2019 LD₂ (ATLAS) taken with Hubble Space Telescope/WFC3 on 2020 April 1, Spitzer Space Telescope/IRAC on 2020 January 25, Zwicky Transient Facility between 2019 April 9 and 2019 Nov 8 and the GROWTH telescope network from 2020 May to July, as well as visible spectroscopy from Keck/LRIS on 2020 August 19. Our observations indicate that LD₂ has a nucleus with radius 0.2-1.8 km assuming a 0.08 albedo and that the coma is dominated by ∼100 μ m-scale dust ejected at ∼1 m/s speeds with a ∼1" jet pointing in the SW direction. LD₂ experienced a total dust mass loss of ∼10⁸ kg and dust mass loss rate of ∼6 kg/s with Afρ/cross-section varying between ∼85 cm/125 km² and ∼200 cm/310 km² between 2019 April 9 and 2019 Nov 8. If the Afρ/cross-section increase remained constant, it implies that LD₂ has remained active since ∼2018 November when it came within 4.8 au of the Sun, a typical distance for comets to begin sublimation of H₂O. From our 4.5 μm Spitzer observations, we set a limit on CO/CO₂ gas production of ∼10²⁷/∼10²⁶ mol/s. Multiple bandpass photometry of LD₂ taken by the GROWTH network measured in a 10,000 km aperture provide color measurements of g-r = 0.59±0.03, r-i = 0.18±0.05, and i-z = 0.01±0.07, colors typical of comets. We set a spectroscopic upper limit to the production of H₂O gas of ∼80 kg/s. Improving the orbital solution for LD₂ with our observations, we determine that the long-term orbit of LD₂ is that of a typical Jupiter Family Comet having close encounters with Jupiter coming within ∼0.5 Hill radius in the last ∼3 y to within 0.8 Hill radius in ∼9 y and has a 95% chance of being ejected from the Solar System in < 10 Myr

Genomic, Pathway Network, and Immunologic Features Distinguishing Squamous Carcinomas

This integrated, multiplatform PanCancer Atlas study co-mapped and identified distinguishing molecular features of squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) from five sites associated with smokin

Pan-Cancer Analysis of lncRNA Regulation Supports Their Targeting of Cancer Genes in Each Tumor Context

Long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) are commonly dys-regulated in tumors, but only a handful are known toplay pathophysiological roles in cancer. We inferredlncRNAs that dysregulate cancer pathways, onco-genes, and tumor suppressors (cancer genes) bymodeling their effects on the activity of transcriptionfactors, RNA-binding proteins, and microRNAs in5,185 TCGA tumors and 1,019 ENCODE assays.Our predictions included hundreds of candidateonco- and tumor-suppressor lncRNAs (cancerlncRNAs) whose somatic alterations account for thedysregulation of dozens of cancer genes and path-ways in each of 14 tumor contexts. To demonstrateproof of concept, we showed that perturbations tar-geting OIP5-AS1 (an inferred tumor suppressor) andTUG1 and WT1-AS (inferred onco-lncRNAs) dysre-gulated cancer genes and altered proliferation ofbreast and gynecologic cancer cells. Our analysis in-dicates that, although most lncRNAs are dysregu-lated in a tumor-specific manner, some, includingOIP5-AS1, TUG1, NEAT1, MEG3, and TSIX, synergis-tically dysregulate cancer pathways in multiple tumorcontexts