The impact of numerical expenditure rules on budgetary discipline over the cycle

We study the impact of numerical expenditure rules on the propensity of governments to deviate from expenditure targets in response to surprises in cyclical conditions. Theoretical considerations suggest that due to political fragmentation in the budgetary process expenditure policy might be prone to a pro-cyclical bias. However, this tendency may be mitigated by numerical expenditure rules. These hypotheses are tested against data from a panel of EU Member States. Our key findings are that (i) deviations between actual and planned government expenditure are positively related to unanticipated changes in the output gap, and (ii) numerical expenditure rules reduce this pro-cyclical bias. Moreover, the pro-cyclical spending bias is found to be particularly pronounced for spending items with a high degree of budgetary flexibility. JEL Classification: C23, E62, H50expenditure rules, fiscal discipline, spending bias, stabilisation

Psychotic-like experiences of young adults in the general population predict mental disorders

Psychotic-like experiences (PLEs) have been identified as risk markers for psychotic disorders and may indicate an individual's susceptibility to mental disorders in general. We examined whether 23 PLEs (assessed with MCIDI questionnaire) reported in young adulthood (n = 1313) predict subsequent psychotic or any mental disorders in the general population. We also investigated whether these possible associations are explained by general psychological distress assessed with the General Health Questionnaire-12 (GHQ-12). The register follow-up period spanned 10-12 years. In Cox regression models, PLEs predicted subsequent psychotic disorders (n = 12) when the effects of age, sex, education, and marital status were adjusted for, but not when general psychological distress was added to the model. Having any mental disorders during follow-up (n = 91) was predicted by PLEs reported at a younger age, when controlling for age, sex, education, marital status, and general psychological distress. In line with earlier results in other age groups, PLEs can be seen as a sign of vulnerability to not just psychotic but all mental disorders during the following years also among young adults in the general population. PLEs were a predictive marker of general psychopathology independently from general psychological distress.Peer reviewe

EU-Gipfel: Kann eine Fiskalunion den Euro retten?

Ende Januar einigten sich 25 EU-Staaten in einem Fiskalpakt auf Schuldenbremsen, die sie auf eine Politik des ausgeglichenen Haushalts festlegen. Für den Fall von Abweichungen soll ein automatischer Korrekturmechanismus in die Regelungen integriert werden. Die Einfügung von Schuldenbremsen in die nationalen Gesetzgebungen soll durch den Europäischen Gerichtshof überprüft werden. Ist der Euro so zu retten?

Adoption of the children's obesity clinic's treatment (TCOCT) protocol into another Danish pediatric obesity treatment clinic

BACKGROUND: Treating severe childhood obesity has proven difficult with inconsistent treatment results. This study reports the results of the implementation of a childhood obesity chronic care treatment protocol. METHODS: Patients aged 5 to 18 years with a body mass index (BMI) above the 99th percentile for sex and age were eligible for inclusion. At baseline patients’ height, weight, and tanner stages were measured, as well as parents’ socioeconomic status (SES) and family structure. Parental weight and height were self-reported. An individualised treatment plan including numerous advices was developed in collaboration with the patient and the family. Patients’ height and weight were measured at subsequent visits. There were no exclusion criteria. RESULTS: Three-hundred-thirteen (141 boys) were seen in the clinic in the period of February 2010 to March 2013. At inclusion, the median age of patients was 11.1 years and the median BMI standard deviation score (SDS) was 3.24 in boys and 2.85 in girls. After 1 year of treatment, the mean BMI SDS difference was −0.30 (95% CI: −0.39; −0.21, p < 0.0001) in boys and −0.19 (95% CI: −0.25; −0.13, p < 0.0001) in girls. After 2 years of treatment, the mean BMI SDS difference was −0.40 (95% CI: −0.56; −0.25, p < 0.0001) in boys and −0.24 (95% CI: −0.33; −0.15, p < 0.0001) in girls. During intervention 120 patients stopped treatment. Retention rates were 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71; 0.81) after one year and 0.57 (95% CI: 0.51; 0.63) after two years of treatment. Risk of dropout was independent of baseline characteristics. Median time spent by health care professionals was 4.5 hours per year per patient and the mean visit interval time was 2.7 months. The reductions in BMI SDS were dependent on gender, parental BMI, and family structure in girls, but independent of baseline BMI SDS, age, co-morbidity, SES, pubertal stage, place of referral, hours of treatment per year, and mean visit interval time. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic use of the TCOCT protocol reduced the degree of childhood obesity with acceptable retention rates with a modest time-investment by health professionals

Investigating Cellular Structures at the Nanoscale with Organic Fluorophores

Super-resolution fluorescence imaging can provide insights into cellular structure and organization with a spatial resolution approaching virtually electron microscopy. Among all the different super-resolution methods single-molecule-based localization microscopy could play an exceptional role in the future because it can provide quantitative information, for example, the absolute number of biomolecules interacting in space and time. Here, small organic fluorophores are a decisive factor because they exhibit high fluorescence quantum yields and photostabilities, thus enabling their localization with nanometer precision. Besides past progress, problems with high-density and specific labeling, especially in living cells, and the lack of suited standards and long-term continuous imaging methods with minimal photodamage render the exploitation of the full potential of the method currently challenging

On the relation between apparent ion and total particle growth rates in the boreal forest and related chamber experiments

The understanding of new particle formation and growth processes is critical for evaluating the role of aerosols in climate change. One of the knowledge gaps is the ion-particle interaction during the early growth process, especially in the sub-3 nm range, where direct observations are sparse. While molecular interactions would imply faster growth rates of ions compared to neutral particles, this phenomenon is not widely observed in the atmosphere. Here, we show field measurements in the boreal forest indicating a smaller apparent growth rate of the ion population compared to the total particles. We use aerosol dynamics simulations to demonstrate that this effect can be caused by the changing importance of ion-induced nucleation mechanisms during the day. We further compare these results with chamber experiments under similar conditions, where we demonstrate that this effect critically depends on the abundance of condensable vapors and the related strength of ion-induced nucleation. Our results imply that atmospheric ion growth rate measurements below 3 nm need to be evaluated very carefully as they do not represent condensational growth alone but are influenced by ion-particle population interactions.Peer reviewe

Theory of mind in a first-episode psychosis population using the Hinting Task

Deficiencies in theory of mind (ToM) are common in psychosis and may largely explain impaired social functioning. Currently, it is unclear whether impairments in ToM are explained by the more general cognitive deficits related to psychosis or whether ToM is impaired in psychosis independently of other cognitive deficits. This study examined ToM using the Hinting Task in young adults (n=66) with first-episode psychosis and matched controls (n=62). The participants were administered a broad neuropsychological assessment. Participants with psychosis performed worse than controls on the Hinting Task. However, 75 % of the variance between the groups was explained by general cognitive deficits, especially impaired processing speed and episodic memory. Hinting Task performance of the best functioning patient group did not differ from that of the control group. When the psychosis group was divided according to diagnosis, the Hinting Task difference between individuals with schizophrenia and controls remained significant even when general cognitive performance was controlled for, suggesting specific verbal ToM deficits in schizophrenia. In contrast, those with other psychotic disorders did not differ from controls. Our results suggest that ToM deficits can be seen in early phases of psychotic disorders, schizophrenia in particular, and are partly independent of other cognitive functions.Peer reviewe

No evidence of microplastic ingestion in emperor penguin chicks (Aptenodytes forsteri) from the Atka Bay colony (Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica)

Microplastic (500 μm using Attenuated Total Reflection Fourier-transform Infrared (ATR-FTIR) spectroscopy. A total of 85 putative particles, mostly in the shape of fibers (65.9 %), were sorted. However, none of the particles were identified as MP applying state-of-the-art methodology. Sorted fibers were further evidenced to originate from contamination during sample processing and analyses. We find that MP concentrations in the local food web of the Weddell Sea and Dronning Maud Land coastal and marginal sea-ice regions; the feeding grounds to chick-rearing emperor penguin adults, are currently at such low levels that no detectable biomagnification is occurring via trophic transfer. Being in contrast to MP studies on other Antarctic and sub-Antarctic penguin species, our comparative discussion including these studies, highlights the importance for standardized procedures for sampling, sample processing and analyses to obtain comparable results. We further discuss other stomach contents and their potential role for MP detection, as well as providing a baseline for the long-term monitoring of MP in apex predator species from this region