Reconstruction of erythemal UV-doses for two stations in Austria: a comparison between alpine and urban regions

The aim of this study is the reconstruction of past UV-doses for two stations in Austria, Hoher Sonnblick and Vienna, using a physical radiation transfer model. The method uses the modeled UV-dose under clear-sky conditions, cloud modification factors and a correction factor as input variables. To identify the influence of temporal resolution of input data and modification factors, an ensemble of four different modelling approaches was calculated, each with hourly or daily resolution. This is especially important because we found no other study describing the influence of the temporal resolution of input data on model performance. Following the results of the statistical analysis of the evaluation period the model with the highest temporal resolution (HMC) was chosen for the reconstruction of UV-doses. A good agreement between modelled and measured values of erythemally effective UV-doses was found at both stations. In relation to the reference period 1976–1985 an increase in the erythemal UV-dose in Vienna of 11% is visible in the period 1986–1995 and an increase of 17% in the period 1996–2005 can be seen. At Hoher Sonnblick the corresponding increase is 2% and 9%. For the different seasons the strongest increase in erythemal UV-dose has been found for winter and spring season at both stations. Further the influences of total ozone and cloudiness on changes in erythemal UV-doses were analyzed. This analysis showed for both stations, that changes in total ozone had a larger influence on erythemal UV-doses than changes in cloudiness

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes Part 2

We present the first spatial analysis of "fingerprints" of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric aerosol load after major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo) in extreme low and high (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively) and mean values of total ozone for the northern and southern mid-latitudes (defined as the region between 30 degrees and 60 degrees north and south, respectively). Significant influence on ozone extremes was found for the warm ENSO phase in both hemispheres during spring, especially towards low latitudes, indicating the enhanced ozone transport from the tropics to the extra-tropics. Further, the results confirm findings of recent work on the connection between the ENSO phase and the strength and extent of the southern ozone "collar". For the volcanic eruptions the analysis confirms findings of earlier studies for the northern mid-latitudes and gives new insights for the Southern Hemisphere. The results provide evidence that the negative effect of the eruption of El Chichon might be partly compensated by a strong warm ENSO phase in 1982–1983 at southern mid-latitudes. The strong west-east gradient in the coefficient estimates for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the analysis of the relationship between the AAO and ENSO phase, the extent and the position of the southern ozone "collar" and the polar vortex structure provide clear evidence for a dynamical "masking" of the volcanic signal at southern mid-latitudes. The paper also analyses the contribution of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes. Here, quite heterogeneous results have been found on spatial scales. In general the results show that EESC and the 11-yr solar cycle can be identified as major contributors to long-term ozone changes. However, a strong contribution of dynamical features (El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) to ozone variability and trends is found at a regional level. For the QBO (at 30 and 50 hPa), strong influence on total ozone variability and trends is found over large parts of the northern and southern mid-latitudes, especially towards equatorial latitudes. Strong influence of ENSO is found over the Northern and Southern Pacific, Central Europe and central southern mid-latitudes. For the NAO, strong influence on column ozone is found over Labrador/Greenland, the Eastern United States, the Euro-Atlantic Sector, and Central Europe. For the NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strong influence on ozone variability and long-term changes is found at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and central southern mid-latitudes

On the relationship between total ozone and atmospheric dynamics and chemistry at mid-latitudes - Part 2: The effects of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation, volcanic eruptions and contributions of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes

We present the first spatial analysis of "fingerprints" of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and atmospheric aerosol load after major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Mt. Pinatubo) in extreme low and high (termed ELOs and EHOs, respectively) and mean values of total ozone for the northern and southern mid-latitudes (defined as the region between 30 degrees and 60 degrees north and south, respectively). Significant influence on ozone extremes was found for the warm ENSO phase in both hemispheres during spring, especially towards low latitudes, indicating the enhanced ozone transport from the tropics to the extra-tropics. Further, the results confirm findings of recent work on the connection between the ENSO phase and the strength and extent of the southern ozone "collar". For the volcanic eruptions the analysis confirms findings of earlier studies for the northern mid-latitudes and gives new insights for the Southern Hemisphere. The results provide evidence that the negative effect of the eruption of El Chichon might be partly compensated by a strong warm ENSO phase in 1982-1983 at southern mid-latitudes. The strong west-east gradient in the coefficient estimates for the Mt. Pinatubo eruption and the analysis of the relationship between the AAO and ENSO phase, the extent and the position of the southern ozone "collar" and the polar vortex structure provide clear evidence for a dynamical " masking" of the volcanic signal at southern mid-latitudes. The paper also analyses the contribution of atmospheric dynamics and chemistry to long-term total ozone changes. Here, quite heterogeneous results have been found on spatial scales. In general the results show that EESC and the 11-yr solar cycle can be identified as major contributors to long-term ozone changes. However, a strong contribution of dynamical features (El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)) to ozone variability and trends is found at a regional level. For the QBO (at 30 and 50 hPa), strong influence on total ozone variability and trends is found over large parts of the northern and southern mid-latitudes, especially towards equatorial latitudes. Strong influence of ENSO is found over the Northern and Southern Pacific, Central Europe and central southern mid-latitudes. For the NAO, strong influence on column ozone is found over Labrador/Greenland, the Eastern United States, the Euro-Atlantic Sector, and Central Europe. For the NAO's southern counterpart, the AAO, strong influence on ozone variability and long-term changes is found at lower southern mid-latitudes, including the southern parts of South America and the Antarctic Peninsula, and central southern mid-latitudes

© Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

doi:10.5194/acp-13-165-201

Relationship between high daily erythemal UV doses, total ozone, surface albedo and cloudiness: An analysis of 30 years of data from Switzerland and Austria

This work investigates the occurrence frequency of days with high erythemal UV doses at three stations in Switzerland and Austria (Davos, Hoher Sonnblick and Vienna) for the time period 1974-2003. While several earlier studies have reported on increases in erythemal UV dose up to 10% during the last decades, this study focuses on days with high erythema! UV dose, which is defined as a daily dose at least 15% higher than for 1950s clear-sky conditions (which represent preindustrial conditions with respect to anthropogenic chlorine). Furthermore, the influence of low column ozone, clear-sky/partly cloudy conditions and surface albedo on UV irradiance has been analyzed on annual and seasonal basis. The results of this study show that in the Central Alpine Region the number of days with high UV dose increased strongly in the early 1990s. A large fraction of all days with high UV dose occurring in the period 1974-2003 was found especially during the years 1994-2003, namely 40% at Davos, 54% at Hoher Sonnblick and 65% at Vienna. The importance of total ozone, clear-sky/partly cloudy conditions and surface albedo (e.g. in dependence of snow cover) varies strongly among the seasons. However, overall the interplay of low total ozone and clear-sky/partly cloudy conditions led to the largest fraction of days showing high erythemal UV dose. Furthermore, an analysis of the synoptic weather situation showed that days with high erythemal UV dose, low total ozone and high relative sunshine duration occur at all three stations more frequently during situations with low pressure gradients or southerly advection. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Machine learning risk prediction of mortality for patients undergoing surgery with perioperative SARS-CoV-2: the COVIDSurg mortality score

To support the global restart of elective surgery, data from an international prospective cohort study of 8492 patients (69 countries) was analysed using artificial intelligence (machine learning techniques) to develop a predictive score for mortality in surgical patients with SARS-CoV-2. We found that patient rather than operation factors were the best predictors and used these to create the COVIDsurg Mortality Score (https://covidsurgrisk.app). Our data demonstrates that it is safe to restart a wide range of surgical services for selected patients