A Snapshot of J. L. Synge

A brief description is given of the life and influence on relativity theory of Professor J. L. Synge accompanied by some technical examples to illustrate his style of work

A comparative framework: how broadly applicable is a 'rigorous' critical junctures framework?

The paper tests Hogan and Doyle's (2007, 2008) framework for examining critical junctures. This framework sought to incorporate the concept of ideational change in understanding critical junctures. Until its development, frameworks utilized in identifying critical junctures were subjective, seeking only to identify crisis, and subsequent policy changes, arguing that one invariably led to the other, as both occurred around the same time. Hogan and Doyle (2007, 2008) hypothesized ideational change as an intermediating variable in their framework, determining if, and when, a crisis leads to radical policy change. Here we test this framework on cases similar to, but different from, those employed in developing the exemplar. This will enable us determine whether the framework's relegation of ideational change to a condition of crisis holds, or, if ideational change has more importance than is ascribed to it by this framework. This will also enable us determined if the framework itself is robust, and fit for the purposes it was designed to perform — identifying the nature of policy change

Past water flow beneath Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica

Abstract. Outburst floods from subglacial lakes beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet modulate ice-flow velocities over periods of months to years. Although subglacial lake drainage events have been observed from satellite-altimetric data, little is known about their role in the long-term evolution of ice-sheet basal hydrology. Here, we systematically map and model past water flow through an extensive area containing over 1000 subglacial channels and 19 former lake basins exposed on over 19 000 km2 of seafloor by the retreat of Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers, West Antarctica. At 507 m wide and 43 m deep on average, the channels offshore of present-day Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers are approximately twice as deep, 3 times as wide, and cover an area over 400 times larger than the terrestrial meltwater channels comprising the Labyrinth in the Antarctic Dry Valleys. The channels incised into bedrock offshore of contemporary Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers would have been capable of accommodating discharges of up to 8.8×106 m3 s−1. We suggest that the channels were formed by episodic discharges from subglacial lakes trapped during ice-sheet advance and retreat over multiple glacial periods. Our results document the widespread influence of episodic subglacial drainage events during past glacial periods, in particular beneath large ice streams similar to those that continue to dominate contemporary ice-sheet discharge. UK Natural Environment Research Council’s iSTAR programme (grant nos. NE/J005703/1, NE/J005746/1, and NE/J005770/1). James D. Kirkham: Debenham Scholarship from the Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge, and a UK Natural Environment Research Council Ph.D. studentship awarded through the Cambridge Earth System Science Doctoral Training Partnership (grant no. NE/L002507/1

A Call for Responsible Estimation of Global Health

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Differential impact of severe drought on infant mortality in two sympatric neotropical primates

Extreme climate events can have important consequences for the dynamics of natural populations, and severe droughts are predicted to become more common and intense due to climate change. We analysed infant mortality in relation to drought in two primate species (white-faced capuchins, Cebus capucinus imitator, and Geoffroy's spider monkeys, Ateles geoffroyi) in a tropical dry forest in northwestern Costa Rica. Our survival analyses combine several rare and valuable long-term datasets, including long-term primate life-history, landscape-scale fruit abundance, food-tree mortality, and climate conditions. Infant capuchins showed a threshold mortality response to drought, with exceptionally high mortality during a period of intense drought, but not during periods of moderate water shortage. By contrast, spider monkey females stopped reproducing during severe drought, and the mortality of infant spider monkeys peaked later during a period of low fruit abundance and high food-tree mortality linked to the drought. These divergent patterns implicate differing physiology, behaviour or associated factors in shaping species-specific drought responses. Our findings link predictions about the Earth's changing climate to environmental influences on primate mortality risk and thereby improve our understanding of how the increasing severity and frequency of droughts will affect the dynamics and conservation of wild primates

Is early center-based child care associated with tantrums and unmanageable behavior over time up to school entry?

Background. Existing research suggests that there is a relationship between greater exposure to center-based child care and child behavioral problems though the mechanism for the impact is unclear. However the measure used to document child care has usually been average hours, which may be particularly unreliable in the early months when fewer children are in center care. In addition individual trajectories for behavior difficulties have not been studied. Objective. The purpose of the current study was to examine whether the extent of exposure to center-based child care before two years predicted the trajectory of children’s difficult behavior (i.e., tantrums and unmanageable behavior) from 30 to 51 months controlling for child and maternal characteristics. Method. Data were drawn from UK-based Families, Children and Child Care (FCCC) study (n=1201). Individual growth models were fitted to test the relation between early center-based child care experiences and subsequent difficult behavior. Results. Children with more exposure to center-based care before two had less difficult behavior at 30 months, but more increase over time. Initial levels were predicted by higher difficult temperament and lower verbal ability. Higher difficult temperament and lower family socio-economic status predicted its change over time. Conclusion. Findings suggest that early exposure to center-based care before two years old is a risk factor for subsequent behavior problems especially when children have a longer period of exposure. A possible explanatory process is that child coping strategies to manage frustration are less well developed in a group context, especially when they lag behind in expressive language

Does Practice Make Perfect?

Extensive literature supports the correlation between surgical volume and improved clinical outcome in the management of various cancers. It is this evidence that has catalysed the creation of centres of excellence. However, on closer inspection, many of these studies are poor quality, low weight and use vastly heterogenous end points in assessment of both volume and outcome. We critically appraise the English language literature published over the last ten years pertaining to the volume outcome relationship in the context of cancer care. Future balanced unbiased studies may enable equipoise in planning international cancer management strategies

Revealing the former bed of Thwaites Glacier using sea-floor bathymetry: Implications for warm-water routing and bed controls on ice flow and buttressing

Abstract. The geometry of the sea floor immediately beyond Antarctica's marine-terminating glaciers is a fundamental control on warm-water routing, but it also describes former topographic pinning points that have been important for ice-shelf buttressing. Unfortunately, this information is often lacking due to the inaccessibility of these areas for survey, leading to modelled or interpolated bathymetries being used as boundary conditions in numerical modelling simulations. At Thwaites Glacier (TG) this critical data gap was addressed in 2019 during the first cruise of the International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) project. We present more than 2000 km2 of new multibeam echo-sounder (MBES) data acquired in exceptional sea-ice conditions immediately offshore TG, and we update existing bathymetric compilations. The cross-sectional areas of sea-floor troughs are under-predicted by up to 40 % or are not resolved at all where MBES data are missing, suggesting that calculations of trough capacity, and thus oceanic heat flux, may be significantly underestimated. Spatial variations in the morphology of topographic highs, known to be former pinning points for the floating ice shelf of TG, indicate differences in bed composition that are supported by landform evidence. We discuss links to ice dynamics for an overriding ice mass including a potential positive feedback mechanism where erosion of soft erodible highs may lead to ice-shelf ungrounding even with little or no ice thinning. Analyses of bed roughnesses and basal drag contributions show that the sea-floor bathymetry in front of TG is an analogue for extant bed areas. Ice flow over the sea-floor troughs and ridges would have been affected by similarly high basal drag to that acting at the grounding zone today. We conclude that more can certainly be gleaned from these 3D bathymetric datasets regarding the likely spatial variability of bed roughness and bed composition types underneath TG. This work also addresses the requirements of recent numerical ice-sheet and ocean modelling studies that have recognised the need for accurate and high-resolution bathymetry to determine warm-water routing to the grounding zone and, ultimately, for predicting glacier retreat behaviour. </jats:p