Comparison of Two Roadside Survey Procedures for Dwarf Mistletoes on the Sawtooth National Forest, Idaho

Two roadside surveys were conducted for dwarf mistletoes parasitizing lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir on the Sawtooth National Forest, Idaho. One survey used variable-radius plots located less than 150 m from roads. The 2nd survey used variable-radius plots established at 200-m intervals along 1600-m transects run perpendicular to the same roads. Estimates of the incidence (percentage of trees infected and percentage of plots infested) and severity (average dwarf mistletoe rating) for both lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir dwarf mistletoes were not significantly different for the 2 survey methods. These findings are further evidence that roadside-plot surveys and transect-plot surveys conducted away from roads provide similar estimates of the incidence of dwarf mistletoes for large forested areas

Comparison of Two Roadside Survey Procedures for Dwarf Mistletoes on the Sawtooth National Forest, Idaho

Two roadside surveys were conducted for dwarf mistletoes parasitizing lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir on the Sawtooth National Forest, Idaho. One survey used variable-radius plots located less than 150 m from roads. The 2nd survey used variable-radius plots established at 200-m intervals along 1600-m transects run perpendicular to the same roads. Estimates of the incidence (percentage of trees infected and percentage of plots infested) and severity (average dwarf mistletoe rating) for both lodgepole pine and Douglas-fir dwarf mistletoes were not significantly different for the 2 survey methods. These findings are further evidence that roadside-plot surveys and transect-plot surveys conducted away from roads provide similar estimates of the incidence of dwarf mistletoes for large forested areas

Thin Fisher Zeroes

Biskup et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 84 (2000) 4794] have recently suggested that the loci of partition function zeroes can profitably be regarded as phase boundaries in the complex temperature or field planes. We obtain the Fisher zeroes for Ising and Potts models on non-planar (``thin'') regular random graphs using this approach, and note that the locus of Fisher zeroes on a Bethe lattice is identical to the corresponding random graph. Since the number of states appears as a parameter in the Potts solution the limiting locus of chromatic zeroes is also accessible.Comment: 10 pages, 4 figure

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2015. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 29 (2015): 744–759, doi:10.1002/2014GB005079.Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.We are grateful for support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science and the National Science Foundation (NSF). J.T.R. and F.H. received support from the Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program in the Climate and Environmental Sciences Division of the Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program in the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science. J.T.R., K.L., E.M., W.F., J.K.M., S.C.D., and N.N.M. received funding from the NSF project “Collaborative Research: Improved Regional and Decadal Predictions of the Carbon Cycle“ (AGS-1048827, AGS-1021776, and AGS-1048890). The Community Earth System Modeling project receives support from both NSF and BER.2015-12-0

PONV Prophylaxis Failure Disproportionately Affects Female Patients, Despite Intraoperative Computerized Decision Support Guidance

Objectives: To compare postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) prophylaxis treatment and outcomes based on patients’ sex, using a retrospective cohort. The setting was the operating room and post-anesthesia care unit of a tertiary care university medical center. Patients: A total of 678 adult male and female patients with American Society of Anesthesiologist (ASA) scores of 1-4 underwent surgery with general anesthesia. All patients received preoperative PONV risk assessment. PONV prophylaxis was administered at the discretion of the anesthesia care team members with guidance from a computerized decision support system. Measurements: Adequacy of prophylaxis was retrospectively determined based on individual patient risk factors and the observed treatment received, compared with guideline-based prophylaxis recommendations. Patient outcome was measured by diagnosis of PONV in recovery. Results: Comparing patients who received fewer than the guideline-recommended number of prophylactic antiemetics by sex, 94.6% were female and 5.4% were males (p \u3c 0.001). Patients who received fewer than guideline-recommended number of antiemetics had significantly higher rates of nausea or vomiting in the post-anesthesia care unit (30.4% vs 17.5%, p \u3c 0.001). Conclusion: This retrospective cohort study shows that female patients receiving general anesthesia are disproportionately affected by failure to adhere to PONV prevention guidelines

DEFINING A GLASS COMPOSITION ENVELOPE FOR AN IMPURITY VARIABILITY STUDY TO SUPPORT PLUTONIUM DISPOSITION

This study focuses on the development of a composition envelope that describes the solubility of various impurities in the lanthanide borosilicate (LaBS) glass. A series of glass compositions was selected, fabricated and characterized in order to define this envelope. The selection of glass compositions, which is the focus of this report, was based on the projected types and concentrations of impurities expected in the plutonium feed stream. A limited amount of impurity data for the various plutonium sources is available and projections were made through analysis of the available information. These projections were used to define the glass compositions to be fabricated and tested. The results of this glass selection process provided an array of glass compositions to be fabricated and characterized in the laboratory in order to evaluate the solubility of various impurity elements and their effects on crystallization and durability as measured by the Product Consistency Test (PCT). The majority of the glasses will be formulated with hafnium as a surrogate for plutonium to simplify laboratory experiments. Plutonium glass testing will also be implemented for select compositions to validate the results of the surrogate testing. The results of this variability testing will be discussed in a separate report that will provide data to validate the acceptability of the compositional envelope defined here and/or provide additional compositional constraints for the plutonium feed materials

The International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) System: Design, Theory, and Implementation

The increasing complexity of Earth system models has inspired efforts to quantitatively assess model fidelity through rigorous comparison with best available measurements and observational data products. Earth system models exhibit a high degree of spread in predictions of land biogeochemistry, biogeophysics, and hydrology, which are sensitive to forcing from other model components. Based on insights from prior land model evaluation studies and community workshops, the authors developed an open source model benchmarking software package that generates graphical diagnostics and scores model performance in support of the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) project. Employing a suite of in situ, remote sensing, and reanalysis data sets, the ILAMB package performs comprehensive model assessment across a wide range of land variables and generates a hierarchical set of web pages containing statistical analyses and figures designed to provide the user insights into strengths and weaknesses of multiple models or model versions. Described here is the benchmarking philosophy and mathematical methodology embodied in the most recent implementation of the ILAMB package. Comparison methods unique to a few specific data sets are presented, and guidelines for configuring an ILAMB analysis and interpreting resulting model performance scores are discussed. ILAMB is being adopted by modeling teams and centers during model development and for model intercomparison projects, and community engagement is sought for extending evaluation metrics and adding new observational data sets to the benchmarking framework.Key PointThe ILAMB benchmarking system broadly compares models to observational data sets and provides a synthesis of overall performancePeer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146994/1/jame20779_am.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146994/2/jame20779.pd

Interactions between land use change and carbon cycle feedbacks

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 31 (2017): 96–113, doi:10.1002/2016GB005374.Using the Community Earth System Model, we explore the role of human land use and land cover change (LULCC) in modifying the terrestrial carbon budget in simulations forced by Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, extended to year 2300. Overall, conversion of land (e.g., from forest to croplands via deforestation) results in a model-estimated, cumulative carbon loss of 490 Pg C between 1850 and 2300, larger than the 230 Pg C loss of carbon caused by climate change over this same interval. The LULCC carbon loss is a combination of a direct loss at the time of conversion and an indirect loss from the reduction of potential terrestrial carbon sinks. Approximately 40% of the carbon loss associated with LULCC in the simulations arises from direct human modification of the land surface; the remaining 60% is an indirect consequence of the loss of potential natural carbon sinks. Because of the multicentury carbon cycle legacy of current land use decisions, a globally averaged amplification factor of 2.6 must be applied to 2015 land use carbon losses to adjust for indirect effects. This estimate is 30% higher when considering the carbon cycle evolution after 2100. Most of the terrestrial uptake of anthropogenic carbon in the model occurs from the influence of rising atmospheric CO2 on photosynthesis in trees, and thus, model-projected carbon feedbacks are especially sensitive to deforestation.National Science Foundation Grant Numbers: AGS 1049033, CCF-15220542017-07-2