Economic Voting in Britain, 1857-1914

Despite limited government control over the pre-1914 economy, opposition politicians were enthusiastic in blaming bad economic news on the incumbent. In a study of 458 by-elections between 1857 and 1914, we find that voters typically gave new governments a 'honeymoon' but thereafter held them responsible for high unemployment and high prices. Each 1% rise in the price level, on average, brought about a 0.21% swing against the government of the day, while each one-point rise in the percentage unemployed had double this effect. Attributing shorter- or longer-term memories to voters, as they used the past to determine what constituted unacceptable price and unemployment levels, makes little difference to this result. We also look at grievance asymmetry - the idea that voters give governments more blame for bad outcomes than they give credit for good ones - and find some evidence in its favour.voting, inflation unemplyment, Britian, elections

Dimension Reduction and Model Averaging for Estimation of Artists’ Age-Valuation Profiles

In hedonic regression models of the valuation of works of art, the age at which an artist produces a particular work, or an indicator variable for periods in his or her artistic career, is often found to have highly significant predictive value. Most existing results are based on regressions that pool large groups of painters. Although it is of interest to estimate such regressions for individual artists, the sample sizes are often inadequate for a model that would also include the large number of other relevant variables. We address this problem of inadequate degrees of freedom in individual artist regressions by using two statistical methods (model averaging and dimension reduction) to incorporate information from a potentially large number of predictor variables, allowing us to work with relatively small samples. We find that individual age-valuation profiles can differ substantially from general pooled profiles, suggesting that methods that are more responsive to the unique features of individual artists may provide better predictions of art valuations at auction. In hedonic regression models of the valuation of works of art, the age at which an artist produces a particular work, or an indicator variable for periods in his or her artistic career, is often found to have highly significant predictive value. Most existing results are based on regressions that pool large groups of painters. Although it is of interest to estimate such regressions for individual artists, the sample sizes are often inadequate for a model that would also include the large number of other relevant variables. We address this problem of inadequate degrees of freedom in individual artist regressions by using two statistical methods (model averaging and dimension reduction) to incorporate information from a potentially large number of predictor variables, allowing us to work with relatively small samples. We find that individual age-valuation profiles can differ substantially from general pooled profiles, suggesting that methods that are more responsive to the unique features of individual artists may provide better predictions of art valuations at auction.Dimension reduction, factor-augmented model, model averaging, réduction de dimension, modèle de facteur augmenté, moyenne de modèles

Extravehicular mobility unit subcritical liquid oxygen storage and supply system

The storage of life support oxygen in the Extravehicular Mobility Unit in the liquid state offers some advantages over the current method of storing the oxygen as a high pressure gas. Storage volume is reduced because of the increased density associated with liquid. The lower storage and operating pressures also reduce the potential for leakage or bursting of the storage tank. The potential for combustion resulting from adiabatic combustion of the gas within lines and components is substantially reduced. Design constraints on components are also relaxed due to the lower system pressures. A design study was performed to determine the requirements for a liquid storage system and prepare a conceptual design. The study involved four tasks. The first was to identify system operating requirements that influence or direct the design of the system. The second was to define candidate storage system concepts that could possibly satisfy the requirements. An evaluation and comparison of the candidate concepts was conducted in the third task. The fourth task was devoted to preparing a conceptual design of the recommended storage system and to evaluate concerns with integration of the concept into the EMU. The results are presented

Circular 20

Since fanning in Alaska first began and especially since dairy farming became the primary agricultural industry, there has existed a need for hardy legumes which would survive Alaska winters and produce satisfactory yields of high quality forage. To meet this need hundreds of legume species and strains have been introduced during the past 40 or more years. Almost all have lacked the necessary hardiness or have not been satisfactory agronomically. The release of Alaskland red clover in the spring of 1953 is the first time a hardy legume has been made available to growers in Alaska.Cooperating with the United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Administratio

Reading in the reception classroom

Ofated’s 2017 review of the Reception year curriculum asserts that reading is the core purpose of the Re-ception year, and advocates “systematic systematic phonics” as the teaching method. This precept disre-gards research into the nature of reading in the early years and the professional wisdom of early years teachers

Affronted adverbials: The debate on grammar

John Hodgson gives a personal account of NATE’s part in language and grammar study over the last fifty years - from Chomsky to SPaG, via Language in Use, LINC, and Grammar for Writing

Rights of the Terminally Ill Patient

An examination of the rights in the United Kingdom of terminally ill patients, both competent and incompetent, shows the struggle courts face

Teaching Notes for CHAPTER 5: Basra: Strategic Dilemmas and Escalation of Force Options

Teaching Notes for Basra: Strategic Dilemmas and Escalation of Force Options, by John Hodgson. The events in Basra in the spring of 2003 illustrate a “hybrid” conflict with elements of conventional and unconventional warfare: humanitarian assistance, managing IDPs, security operations with multiple state and nonstate actors, all occurring simultaneously in the same geographic area and period of time. In that regard, the situation in Basra in late March and early April 2003 presented a worst-case scenario both for military commanders and civilian leadership. Thus, this case represents a challenging test-bed, a vehicle for students to discuss the dilemmas and issues facing the key actors and decision-makers, and to develop a plan—including aspects of the strategic, operational, and tactical levels of warfare—with the benefit of hindsight, to bring the situation to an acceptable conclusion quickly and efficiently. The purpose of this case is to explore the military and reconstruction options available to the British in the early stages of the Basra operation. However, it is interesting to ask the question: If the British had pursued civil-based options in late March and early April in Basra, would the experience of the subsequent years have worked out differently? The purpose is not to discuss the legitimacy of the Iraq War, the British involvement therein, or the decisions, largely American, in the early planning stages of the war. As tempting as it will be for some students to engage in those discussions, the instructor should steer students away from those arguments and focus on the problems facing the British at Basra. The instructor should discuss U.S. and UK national interests and coalition strategic objectives in an earlier class and, more importantly, should emphasize to students that they are role-playing military leaders in this case study. They have been given a job to do and must objectively identify and address the critical issues with the resources available

Grassland Production and Management – Trends and Perspectives for the 21\u3csup\u3est\u3c/sup\u3e Century

The XIX International Congress is set in a time of unprecedented change, with increasing uncertainty about the long-term sustainability of established systems of land use. The major threats are the continuing rapid increase in the human population of the world, the pressure on land resources to meet food requirements, the effects of global warming on climate stability, and the consequence of these factors on land resource stability and food production potential. Overlying these threats is the impact of the global economy on land use policies. Projections made at the XVIII International Grassland Congress in 1997 suggested that food production could be expanded to meet the needs of the world ís population at least to 2020, but only by means of accelerated investment in agricultural research and development, and by the willingness of governments to control open market systems. However, following a period in the 1960ís and 1970ís when funding increased in most regions of the world in real terms, there has been a steady erosion of support for research and development at both national and international levels, with particularly worrying consequences to the food production capability of poorer nations. This effect has been exacerbated by the increasing emphasis on market forces economic models for determining priorities in research and development programmes. There can be no doubt of the continuing importance of grasslands to food production and environmental stability, and it seems probable that there will be continuing emphasis on relatively simple pastoral systems in most regions of the world and a move away from high- capital, high-energy systems in regions where they currently exist. There will, therefore, be a continuing need to maintain a broad spectrum of research expertise, and close coordination of production and conservation interests, in order to ensure effective and timely responses to specific (and largely unpredictable) threats and opportunities which develop in future. These issues are discussed in relation to the future of the International Grassland Congress, and the scope for influencing national and international policy and practice in resourcing and managing grassland research and development programmes