The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has ½ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast

Vitamin K catabolite inhibition of ovariectomy-induced bone loss: Structure–activity relationship considerations

The potential benefit of vitamin K as a therapeutic in osteoporosis is controversial and the vitamin K regimen being used clinically (45 mg/day) employs doses that are many times higher than required to ensure maximal gamma‐carboxylation of the vitamin K‐dependent bone proteins. We therefore tested the hypothesis that vitamin K catabolites, 5‐carbon (CAN5C) and 7‐carbon carboxylic acid (CAN7C) aliphatic side‐chain derivatives of the naphthoquinone moiety exert an osteotrophic role consistent with the treatment of osteoporosis

Optimal guidance law development for an advanced launch system

The proposed investigation on a Matched Asymptotic Expansion (MAE) method was carried out. It was concluded that the method of MAE is not applicable to launch vehicle ascent trajectory optimization due to a lack of a suitable stretched variable. More work was done on the earlier regular perturbation approach using a piecewise analytic zeroth order solution to generate a more accurate approximation. In the meantime, a singular perturbation approach using manifold theory is also under current investigation. Work on a general computational environment based on the use of MACSYMA and the weak Hamiltonian finite element method continued during this period. This methodology is capable of the solution of a large class of optimal control problems

Structure and clumping in the fast wind of NGC6543

Far-UV spectroscopy from the FUSE satellite is analysed to uniquely probe spatial structure and clumping in the fast wind of the central star of the H-rich planetary nebula NGC6543 (HD164963). Time-series data of the unsaturated PV 1118, 1128 resonance line P Cygni profiles provide a very sensitive diagnostic of variable wind conditions in the outflow. We report on the discovery of episodic and recurrent optical depth enhancements in the PV absorption troughs, with some evidence for a 0.17-day modulation time-scale. SEI line-synthesis modelling is used to derive physical properties, including the optical depth evolution of individual `events'. The characteristics of these features are essentially identical to the `discrete absorption components' (DACs) commonly seen in the UV lines of massive OB stars. We have also employed the unified model atmosphere code CMFGEN to explore spectroscopic signatures of clumping, and report in particular on the clear sensitivity of the PV lines to the clump volume filling factor. The results presented here have implications for the downward revision of mass-loss rates in PN central stars. We conclude that the temporal structures seen in the PV lines of NGC6543 likely have a physical origin that is similar to that operating in massive, luminous stars, and may be related to near-surface perturbations caused by stellar pulsation and/or magnetic fields.Comment: 11 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRA

Environment Assisted Metrology with Spin Qubit

We investigate the sensitivity of a recently proposed method for precision measurement [Phys. Rev. Lett. 106, 140502 (2011)], focusing on an implementation based on solid-state spin systems. The scheme amplifies a quantum sensor response to weak external fields by exploiting its coupling to spin impurities in the environment. We analyze the limits to the sensitivity due to decoherence and propose dynamical decoupling schemes to increase the spin coherence time. The sensitivity is also limited by the environment spin polarization; therefore we discuss strategies to polarize the environment spins and present a method to extend the scheme to the case of zero polarization. The coherence time and polarization determine a figure of merit for the environment's ability to enhance the sensitivity compared to echo-based sensing schemes. This figure of merit can be used to engineer optimized samples for high-sensitivity nanoscale magnetic sensing, such as diamond nanocrystals with controlled impurity density.Comment: 9 pages, 6 figure

Lunar Outgassing, Transient Phenomena and The Return to The Moon, I: Existing Data

Herein the transient lunar phenomena (TLP) report database is subjected to a discriminating statistical filter robust against sites of spurious reports, and produces a restricted sample that may be largely reliable. This subset is highly correlated geographically with the catalog of outgassing events seen by the Apollo 15, 16 and Lunar Prospector alpha-particle spectrometers for episodic Rn-222 gas release. Both this robust TLP sample and even the larger, unfiltered sample are highly correlated with the boundary between mare and highlands, as are both deep and shallow moonquakes, as well as Po-210, a long-lived product of Rn-222 decay and a further tracer of outgassing. This offers another significant correlation relating TLPs and outgassing, and may tie some of this activity to sagging mare basalt plains (perhaps mascons). Additionally, low-level but likely significant TLP activity is connected to recent, major impact craters (while moonquakes are not), which may indicate the effects of cracks caused by the impacts, or perhaps avalanches, allowing release of gas. The majority of TLP (and Rn-222) activity, however, is confined to one site that produced much of the basalt in the Procellarum Terrane, and it seems plausible that this TLP activity may be tied to residual outgassing from the formerly largest volcanic ffusion sites from the deep lunar interior. With the coming in the next few years of robotic spacecraft followed by human exploration, the study of TLPs and outgassing is both promising and imperiled. We will have an unprecedented pportunity to study lunar outgassing, but will also deal with a greater burden of anthropogenic lunar gas than ever produced. There is a pressing need to study lunar atmosphere and its sources while still pristine. [Abstract abridged.]Comment: 35 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Icarus. Other papers in series found at http://www.astro.columbia.edu/~arlin/TLP

Environment Assisted Precision Measurement

We describe a method to enhance the sensitivity of precision measurements that takes advantage of a quantum sensor's environment to amplify its response to weak external perturbations. An individual qubit is used to sense the dynamics of surrounding ancillary qubits, which are in turn affected by the external field to be measured. The resulting sensitivity enhancement is determined by the number of ancillas that are coupled strongly to the sensor qubit; it does not depend on the exact values of the coupling strengths and is resilient to many forms of decoherence. The method achieves nearly Heisenberg-limited precision measurement, using a novel class of entangled states. We discuss specific applications to improve clock sensitivity using trapped ions and magnetic sensing based on electronic spins in diamond.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Principles of Control for Decoherence-Free Subsystems

Decoherence-Free Subsystems (DFS) are a powerful means of protecting quantum information against noise with known symmetry properties. Although Hamiltonians theoretically exist that can implement a universal set of logic gates on DFS encoded qubits without ever leaving the protected subsystem, the natural Hamiltonians that are available in specific implementations do not necessarily have this property. Here we describe some of the principles that can be used in such cases to operate on encoded qubits without losing the protection offered by the DFS. In particular, we show how dynamical decoupling can be used to control decoherence during the unavoidable excursions outside of the DFS. By means of cumulant expansions, we show how the fidelity of quantum gates implemented by this method on a simple two-physical-qubit DFS depends on the correlation time of the noise responsible for decoherence. We further show by means of numerical simulations how our previously introduced "strongly modulating pulses" for NMR quantum information processing can permit high-fidelity operations on multiple DFS encoded qubits in practice, provided that the rate at which the system can be modulated is fast compared to the correlation time of the noise. The principles thereby illustrated are expected to be broadly applicable to many implementations of quantum information processors based on DFS encoded qubits.Comment: 12 pages, 7 figure