A novel hybrid swarm optimized multilayer neural network for spatial prediction of flash floods in tropical areas using sentinel-1 SAR imagery and geospatial data

© 2018 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. Flash floods are widely recognized as one of the most devastating natural hazards in the world, therefore prediction of flash flood-prone areas is crucial for public safety and emergency management. This research proposes a new methodology for spatial prediction of flash floods based on Sentinel-1 SAR imagery and a new hybrid machine learning technique. The SAR imagery is used to detect flash flood inundation areas, whereas the new machine learning technique, which is a hybrid of the firefly algorithm (FA), Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) backpropagation, and an artificial neural network (named as FA-LM-ANN), was used to construct the prediction model. The Bac Ha Bao Yen (BHBY) area in the northwestern region of Vietnam was used as a case study. Accordingly, a Geographical Information System (GIS) database was constructed using 12 input variables (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, stream power index, toposhade, stream density, rainfall, normalized difference vegetation index, soil type, and lithology) and subsequently the output of flood inundation areas was mapped. Using the database and FA-LM-ANN, the flash flood model was trained and verified. The model performance was validated via various performance metrics including the classification accuracy rate, the area under the curve, precision, and recall. Then, the flash flood model that produced the highest performance was compared with benchmarks, indicating that the combination of FA and LM backpropagation is proven to be very effective and the proposed FA-LM-ANN is a new and useful tool for predicting flash flood susceptibility

Pandemic H1N1 virus transmission and shedding dynamics in index case households of a prospective Vietnamese cohort

OBJECTIVES: Influenza household transmission studies are required to guide prevention strategies but most passively recruit index cases that seek healthcare. We investigated A(H1N1)pdm09 transmission in a household-based cohort during 2009. METHODS: Health-workers visited 270 households weekly, and collected swabs from influenza-like-illness cases. If A(H1N1)pdm09 was RT-PCR-confirmed, all household members had symptoms assessed and swabs collected daily for 10-15 days. Viral RNA was quantified and sequenced and serology performed on pre-pandemic sera. RESULTS: Index cases were detected in 20 households containing 81 people. 98.5% lacked A(H1N1)pdm09 neutralizing antibodies in pre-pandemic sera. Eleven (18.6%, 95% CI 10.7-30.4%) of 59 contacts were infected. Virus genetic diversity within households was negligible and less than between households. Index and secondary cases were distributed between mothers, daughters and sons, and had similar virus-RNA shedding and symptom dynamics. Fathers were rarely infected. Five secondary cases (45%) had no apparent symptoms and three shed virus before symptoms. Secondary infection was associated with index case wet cough (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.22-1.99). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of A(H1N1)pdm09 susceptible persons, virus sequencing was capable of discriminating household from community transmission. Household transmission involved mothers and children but rarely fathers. Asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic shedding was common

Bacterial risk factors for treatment failure and relapse among patients with isoniazid resistant tuberculosis

BACKGROUND: Drug resistant tuberculosis (TB) is increasing in prevalence worldwide. Treatment failure and relapse is known to be high for patients with isoniazid resistant TB treated with standard first line regimens. However, risk factors for unfavourable outcomes and the optimal treatment regimen for isoniazid resistant TB are unknown. This cohort study was conducted when Vietnam used the eight month first line treatment regimen and examined risk factors for failure/relapse among patients with isoniazid resistant TB. METHODS: Between December 2008 and June 2011 2090 consecutive HIV-negative adults (≥18 years of age) with new smear positive pulmonary TB presenting at participating district TB units in Ho Chi Minh City were recruited. Participants with isoniazid resistant TB identified by Microscopic Observation Drug Susceptibility (MODS) had extended follow-up for 2 years with mycobacterial culture to test for relapse. MGIT drug susceptibility testing confirmed 239 participants with isoniazid resistant, rifampicin susceptible TB. Bacterial and demographic factors were analysed for association with treatment failure and relapse. RESULTS: Using only routine programmatic sputum smear microscopy for assessment, (months 2, 5 and 8) 30/239 (12.6%) had an unfavourable outcome by WHO criteria. Thirty-nine patients were additionally detected with unfavourable outcomes during 2 year follow up, giving a total of 69/239 (28.9%) of isoniazid (INH) resistant cases with unfavourable outcome by 2 years of follow-up. Beijing lineage was the only factor significantly associated with unfavourable outcome among INH-resistant TB cases during 2 years of follow-up. (adjusted OR = 3.16 [1.54-6.47], P = 0.002). CONCLUSION: One third of isoniazid resistant TB cases suffered failure/relapse within 2 years under the old eight month regimen. Over half of these cases were not identified by standard WHO recommended treatment monitoring. Intensified research on early identification and optimal regimens for isoniazid resistant TB is needed. Infection with Beijing genotype of TB is a significant risk factor for bacterial persistence on treatment resulting in failure/relapse within 2 years. The underlying mechanism of increased tolerance for standard drug regimens in Beijing genotype strains remains unknown

Epidemiological and Virological Characteristics of Influenza in the Western Pacific Region of the World Health Organization, 2006-2010

BACKGROUND: Influenza causes yearly seasonal epidemics and periodic pandemics. Global systems have been established to monitor the evolution and impact of influenza viruses, yet regional analysis of surveillance findings has been limited. This study describes epidemiological and virological characteristics of influenza during 2006-2010 in the World Health Organization's Western Pacific Region. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Influenza-like illness (ILI) and influenza virus data were obtained from the 14 countries with National Influenza Centres. Data were obtained directly from countries and from FluNet, the web-based tool of the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System. National influenza surveillance and participation in the global system increased over the five years. Peaks in ILI reporting appeared to be coincident with the proportion of influenza positive specimens. Temporal patterns of ILI activity and the proportion of influenza positive specimens were clearly observed in temperate countries: Mongolia, Japan and the Republic of Korea in the northern hemisphere, and Australia, New Zealand, Fiji and New Caledonia (France) in the southern hemisphere. Two annual peaks in activity were observed in China from 2006 through the first quarter of 2009. A temporal pattern was less evident in tropical countries, where influenza activity was observed year-round. Influenza A viruses accounted for the majority of viruses reported between 2006 and 2009, but an equal proportion of influenza A and influenza B viruses was detected in 2010. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite differences in surveillance methods and intensity, commonalities in ILI and influenza virus circulation patterns were identified. Patterns suggest that influenza circulation may be dependent on a multitude of factors including seasonality and population movement. Dominant strains in Southeast Asian countries were later detected in other countries. Thus, timely reporting and regional sharing of information about influenza may serve as an early warning, and may assist countries to anticipate the potential severity and burden associated with incoming strains