Match madness: Probability matching in prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament

Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men's basketball tournament. This study examines how individuals make predictions for tournament pools, one of the most popular forms of betting, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher seeded team) than would be considered rational by a normative choice model, and that individuals are no better than chance at doing so. These predictions fit a pattern of probability matching, in which individuals predict upsets at a rate equal to past frequency. This pattern emerges because individuals believe the outcomes of the games are nonrandom and, therefore, predictable.j asp_551 2809..2839 The focus of the current work is "March Madness," as the NCAA men's college basketball championship tournament has come to be known. In the tournament, 64 of the best teams in the country are selected to play in a six-round, single-elimination tournament to decide the national champion. This tournament has become one of the most popular sporting events of the year, and the focus of a great deal of prognostication. More than $2.5 billion are spent each year in legal and illegal gambling on this basketball tournament alone There are a number of interesting features of this tournament. First, teams are sorted into four groups (regions) of 16 teams and ranked (seeded) by the tournament organizers. In the first round, the best, lowest seeded team (1) in a group plays the worst, highest seeded team (16) in the group; the second-lowest seeded team (2) plays the second-highest seeded team (15); and 1 The authors thank Aaron Coleman, who designed the Internet interface for Study 1; and Judith Stöckel who collected data for Studies 2 and 3

Running Head: GENDER DIFFERENCES IN SELF-HANDICAPPING

Abstract Research in the area of self-handicapping has consistently demonstrated a robust yet puzzling gender difference in the use of and evaluation of behavioral self-handicaps; women (1) are less likely to use these forms of handicaps, particularly those involving the actual or reported reduction of effort, and (2) evaluate the use of these handicaps by others more negatively than do men. The present research examines several possible explanations for these consistent gender differences and finds that the personal value placed on effort is an important mediator of these effects

Descriptive Norms Caused Increases in Mask Wearing During the COVID-19 Pandemic

Human sociality is governed by two types of social norms: injunctive norms, which prescribe what people ought to do, and descriptive norms, which reflect what people actually do. The process by which these norms emerge and their causal influences on cooperative behavior over time are not well understood. Here, we study these questions through social norms influencing mask wearing during the COVID-19 pandemic. Leveraging 2 years of data from the United States (18 time points; n = 915), we tracked mask wearing and perceived injunctive and descriptive mask wearing norms as the pandemic unfolded. Longitudinal trends suggested that norms and behavior were tightly coupled, changing quickly in response to public health recommendations. In addition, longitudinal modeling revealed that descriptive norms caused future increases in mask wearing across multiple waves of data collection. These cross-lagged causal effects of descriptive norms were large, even after controlling for non-social beliefs and demographic variables. Injunctive norms, by contrast, had less frequent and generally weaker causal effects on future mask wearing. During uncertain times, cooperative behavior is more strongly driven by what others are actually doing, rather than what others think ought to be done

‘It brings the lads together’: A critical exploration of older men’s experiences of a weight management programme delivered through a Healthy Stadia project

Older men whose weight is considered unhealthy may experience particular barriers that can restrict their adoption of health improvement interventions. Despite promising findings recommending the use of sports settings to facilitate health promotion with men, little evidence has addressed older men’s health needs for, or experiences of, these settings. Using a qualitative methodology, this study explored the experiences of 14 ageing men attending a football-led weight management programme delivered at a community sports setting. The thematic analysis of semi-structured interviews elucidates important insights regarding the provision of sports-led health improvement interventions for this population. Men especially valued the opportunity to play sports and do physical activity in an environment that promotes ‘inclusive’ competition and caring interpersonal relationships. Implicit in the findings is the key role of practitioners in promoting social engagement. We conclude the paper with key practical implications of this research

A Multisite Preregistered Paradigmatic Test of the Ego-Depletion Effect

We conducted a preregistered multilaboratory project (k = 36; N = 3,531) to assess the size and robustness of ego-depletion effects using a novel replication method, termed the paradigmatic replication approach. Each laboratory implemented one of two procedures that was intended to manipulate self-control and tested performance on a subsequent measure of self-control. Confirmatory tests found a nonsignificant result (d = 0.06). Confirmatory Bayesian meta-analyses using an informed-prior hypothesis (δ = 0.30, SD = 0.15) found that the data were 4 times more likely under the null than the alternative hypothesis. Hence, preregistered analyses did not find evidence for a depletion effect. Exploratory analyses on the full sample (i.e., ignoring exclusion criteria) found a statistically significant effect (d = 0.08); Bayesian analyses showed that the data were about equally likely under the null and informed-prior hypotheses. Exploratory moderator tests suggested that the depletion effect was larger for participants who reported more fatigue but was not moderated by trait self-control, willpower beliefs, or action orientation.</p

Match madness : Probability matching in the prediction of the NCAA basketball tournament

Every year, billions of dollars are spent gambling on the outcomes of the NCAA men s basketball tournament. The current work examines how individuals make predictions for one of the most popular forms of betting, tournament pools, in which individuals must correctly predict as many games in the tournament as possible. We demonstrate that individuals predict more upsets (i.e., wins by a higher-seeded team) than would be considered rational by a normative choice model, and that individuals are no better than chance at doing so. These predictions fit a pattern of probability matching, in which individuals predict upsets at a rate equal to past frequency. This pattern emerges because individuals believe the outcomes of the games are non-random and therefore predictable

The Role of Ability Judgments in Self-Handicapping

This research investigated whether self-handicapping preserves specific conceptions of ability in a particular domain despite poor performance. Reports of preparatory behaviors and stress among introductory psychology students were measured prior to an exam and subsequent performance, attributions for the performance, and measures of global self-esteem and specific self-conceptions were measured after the exam. Results indicated that high self-handicappers reported reduced effort and more stress prior to the exam, performed worse on the exam, and made different attributions following the exam than did low self-handicappers. Although reported self-handicapping was detrimental to performance, male HSH individuals maintained positive conceptions of specific ability in psychology in spite of poorer performance. Moreover, the results of path analyses indicated that it was these changes in specific ability beliefs that mediated changes in global self-esteem. These findings suggest that the primary motivation underlying self-handicapping may be to protect conceptions of ability in a specific domain, which thereby serves to protect global self-esteem

Adaptive Indulgence in Self-Control: A Multilevel Cost–Benefit Analysis

10.1080/1047840x.2019.1646051Psychological Inquiry303140-14