The view from space: Theory-based time-varying distances in the gravity model

I compute distances used in the gravity model of international trade that improve the existing measures along multiple lines and help remedy the border puzzle by up to 50%. I derive a trade cost aggregation that is agnostic to the underlying gravity framework while taking into account the economic geography of countries. Using this method I compute bilateral and internal country distances, making use of nightlight satellite imagery for information on the economic geography of countries

Friendly fire - the trade impact of the Russia sanctions and counter-sanctions

Economic sanctions are a frequent instrument of foreign policy. In a diplomatic conflict, they aim to elicit a change in the policies of foreign governments by damaging their economy. However, sanctions are not costless for the sending economy, where domestic firms involved in business with the target countries might incur economic damages. This paper evaluates these costs in terms of export losses of the diplomatic crisis that started in 2014 between the Russian Federation and 37 countries, (including the United States, the EU, and Japan) over the Ukrainian conflict for the implicated countries. We first gauge the impact of the sanctions' regime using a structural gravity framework and quantify the trade losses in a general equilibrium counterfactual analysis. We estimate this loss at US$114 billion from 2014 until the end of 2015, with US$ 44 billion being borne by sanctioning Western countries. Interestingly, we find that the bulk of the impact stems from products that are not directly targeted by Russian retaliations (taking the form of an embargo on imports of agricultural products). This result suggests that most of the losses are not attributable to the Russian retaliation but to Western sanctions. We then investigate the underlying mechanism at the firm level using French customs data. Results indicate that neither consumer boycotts nor perceived country risk can account for the decline in exports of products that are not targeted by the Russian embargo. Instead, the disruption of the provision of trade finance services is found to have played an important role

The ties that bind: Geopolitical motivations for economic integration

Economic determinants of economic integration agreements (EIAs) have received ample attention in the economic literature. Political motivations for such agreements have been mostly studied as functions of domestic politics or in the context of conflict. In this paper I suggest a different narrative. Economic integration could be used as an instrument of foreign policy, where political considerations influence the choice of contracting partners. I sketch a simple model that exhibits the proposed mechanism in which a big country chooses between alternatives for integration in terms of economic and political welfare gains, while the small country is indifferent between possible partners for integration. In the empirical part I use a novel dataset on political events to test the predictions of the model and find evidence for the hypothesis that there is more to economic integration than "just trade". Geopolitical considerations play a determining role in the choice of the contracting partner country and the depth of economic integration

Mobility as resilience capacity in northern Alpine Neolithic settlement communities

Resilience has recently become an insightful conceptual framework that helps scholars explore how communities respond to external shocks, such as environmental changes. In prehistoric archaeology, this notion has primarily been investigated using the Resilience Theory (RT) and the Adaptive Cycle model (AC), developed by Gunderson and Holling, which are applied to adaptive systems in order to understand the source and role of change. However, such systems-theoretical approaches, which derive from ecology and psychology, bear the danger of leading to a top-down application of deductive models when appropriated to the fragmented archaeological sources. In other words, the risk is to assume the RT and AC model first and then to fit archaeological data within those assumptions. In this paper, we propose an alternative, inductive bottom-up approach in which we define resilience as a set of adaptive capacities grounded in social practices that enabled communities to cope with and respond to challenges. We use the Neolithic wetland sites from the Three-Lakes Region in the northern Alpine foreland of western Switzerland as a case study. These sites provide an abundance of archaeological and palaeoecological information, which can be used to examine the resilience of settlement communities to climate fluctuations. We will evaluate whether a causal relationship might have existed between climate changes in the period between 3600 and 3200 BCE and an observable decline of settlement activities on the shores of the large lakes. In addition to year-accurate reconstructions of settlement histories, we will apply statistical significance tests on archaeological and palaeoclimatic time series to question the correlation and causality between settlement activities and climate fluctuations. Besides the settlement frequency curve, we will use the radioactive beryllium-10 isotope (Be10) content in the GISP2 ice core from the Greenland Ice Sheet and the δ18O values of well-dated speleothems as proxies for temperature and precipitation, respectively. The inferred hypothesis, i.e. that periodically rising lake levels led to the flooding of former inhabitable spaces on the lakes’ shore zones and forced communities to relocate their settlements to the hinterland, will further be tested. Therefore, we apply multivariate statistics to pollen data to evaluate human influence on vegetation (land clearing) taken as settlement activity beyond the shores of large lakes. In addition, we examine the relevance of transformations in pottery styles as further indicators for spatial mobility

Brothers in arms : the value of coalitions in sanctions regimes

This paper examines the impact of coalitions on the economic costs of the 2012 Iran and 2014 Russia sanctions. By estimating and simulating a quantitative general equilibrium trade model under different coalition set-ups, we (i) dissect welfare losses for sanction-senders and target; (ii) compare prospective coalition partners and; (iii) provide bounds for the sanctions potential — the maximum welfare change attainable — when sanctions are scaled vertically, i.e. across sectors up to an embargo, or horizontally, i.e. across countries up to a global regime. To gauge the significance of simulation outcomes, we implement a Bayesian bootstrap procedure that generates confidence bands. We find that the implemented measures against Iran and Russia inflicted considerable economic harm, yielding 32 – 37% of the vertical sanctions potential. Our key finding is that coalitions lower the average welfare loss incurred from sanctions relative to unilateral implementation. They also increase the welfare loss imposed on Iran and Russia. Adding China to the coalition further amplifies the welfare loss by 79% for Iran and 22% for Russia. Finally, we quantify transfers that would equalize losses across coalition members. These hypothetical transfers can be seen as a sanctions-equivalent of NATO spending goals and provide a measure of the relative burden borne by coalition countries

Speckle statistics in adaptive optics images at visible wavelengths

Residual speckles in adaptive optics (AO) images represent a well-known limitation on the achievement of the contrast needed for faint source detection. Speckles in AO imagery can be the result of either residual atmospheric aberrations, not corrected by the AO, or slowly evolving aberrations induced by the optical system. We take advantage of the high temporal cadence (1 ms) of the data acquired by the System for Coronagraphy with High-order Adaptive Optics from R to K bands-VIS forerunner experiment at the Large Binocular Telescope to characterize the AO residual speckles at visible wavelengths. An accurate knowledge of the speckle pattern and its dynamics is of paramount importance for the application of methods aimed at their mitigation. By means of both an automatic identification software and information theory, we study the main statistical properties of AO residuals and their dynamics. We therefore provide a speckle characterization that can be incorporated into numerical simulations to increase their realism and to optimize the performances of both real-time and postprocessing techniques aimed at the reduction of the speckle noise

KniMet: a pipeline for the processing of chromatography-mass spectrometry metabolomics data.

INTRODUCTION: Data processing is one of the biggest problems in metabolomics, given the high number of samples analyzed and the need of multiple software packages for each step of the processing workflow. OBJECTIVES: Merge in the same platform the steps required for metabolomics data processing. METHODS: KniMet is a workflow for the processing of mass spectrometry-metabolomics data based on the KNIME Analytics platform. RESULTS: The approach includes key steps to follow in metabolomics data processing: feature filtering, missing value imputation, normalization, batch correction and annotation. CONCLUSION: KniMet provides the user with a local, modular and customizable workflow for the processing of both GC-MS and LC-MS open profiling data

In-vivo imaging of brain microglial activity in antipsychotic-free and medicated schizophrenia: a [¹¹C]<i>(R)</i>-PK11195 positron emission tomography study

Abstract Positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of the 18 kDa translocator protein (TSPO) has been used to investigate whether microglial activation, an indication of neuroinflammation, is evident in the brain of adults with schizophrenia. Interpretation of these studies is confounded by potential modulatory effects of antipsychotic medication on microglial activity. In the first such study in antipsychotic-free schizophrenia, we have used [11C](R)-PK11195 PET to compare TSPO availability in a predominantly antipsychotic-naive group of moderate-to-severely symptomatic unmedicated patients (n=8), similarly symptomatic medicated patients with schizophrenia taking risperidone or paliperidone by regular intramuscular injection (n=8), and healthy comparison subjects (n=16). We found no evidence for increased TSPO availability in antipsychotic-free patients compared with healthy controls (mean difference 4%, P=0.981). However, TSPO availability was significantly elevated in medicated patients (mean increase 88%, P=0.032) across prefrontal (dorsolateral, ventrolateral, orbital), anterior cingulate and parietal cortical regions. In the patients, TSPO availability was also strongly correlated with negative symptoms measured using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale across all the brain regions investigated (r=0.651-0.741). We conclude that the pathophysiology of schizophrenia is not associated with microglial activation in the 2-6 year period following diagnosis. The elevation in the medicated patients may be a direct effect of the antipsychotic, although this study cannot exclude treatment resistance and/or longer illness duration as potential explanations. It also remains to be determined whether it is present only in a subset of patients, represents a pro- or anti-inflammatory state, its association with primary negative symptoms, and whether there are significant differences between antipsychotics