Effect of selection of censoring times on survival analysis estimation of disease incidence and association with risk factors

In longitudinal cohort studies, potential risk factors are measured at baseline, subjects are followed over time, and disease endpoints are ascertained via extensive surveillance. Individual follow-up time is from baseline to the event, if one is observed during the study period. Follow-up time is censored for subjects who are not observed to have the event during the study period, at the end of the study period for subjects who remain event-free, but during the study period for subjects who leave the study early by choice or by mortality, or whose last evaluation was before the end of the study. Survival analytic techniques are unique in that the unit of analysis is not the individual but the person-time contributed by the individual. Surveillance in longitudinal studies is generally quite rigorous. Subjects are examined in waves and their event status is ascertained. Surveillance continues between waves, and events come to the attention of the investigator. If there is a long time between waves, analyses can be conducted on all available data, with non-events censored early at the last examination and events followed beyond the general examination to the incident event. Motivated by analyses using the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) with cardiovascular endpoints, we consider four censoring methods for non-events and evaluate their impact on estimates of incidence, and on tests of association between risk factors and incidence. We further investigate the impact of early censoring of non-events (as compared to events) under various scenarios with respect to incidence estimation, robustness, and power using a simulation study of Weibull survival models over a range of sample sizes and distribution parameters. Our FHS and simulation investigations show early censoring of non-events causes over estimation of incidence, particularly when the baseline incidence is low. Early censoring of non-events did not affect the robustness of the Wald test [Ho: Hazard Ratio (HR) =1]. However, in both the FHS and over the range of simulation scenarios, under early censoring of non-events, estimates of HR were closer to the null (1.0), and the power to detect associations with risk factors was markedly reduced

Elevated Amyloid-β and Tau Levels in the Brain are Associated with a Reduced Abundance of Neuroprotective Gut Bacteria

Background: Recent research suggests that differences in the gut microbiome composition may contribute to the pathogenesis of neurological disorders, including Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD). Animal studies have shown that fecal microbiota transplantation reduces amyloid plaques in mouse AD models. However, whether the buildup of Aβ and tau deposits in the brain are associated with shifts in the human gut microbiota composition is understudied. Method: We used stool specimens and neuropathological measures from 140 middle-aged individuals (Table 1: mean age 56, 54% Female) from the Framingham Heart Study (FHS) to assess the link between the gut microbiome composition and Aβ Positron Emission Tomography (Aβ-PET) in a global composite brain measure, and tau-PET deposits in the rhinal cortex and the inferior temporal cortex. We quantified gut microbiome composition using 16S rRNA sequencing. We performed multivariable association and differential abundance analyses, adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, and other confounders. Result: Multivariable association results (Figure 1) indicated significant associations (adjusted p-value \u3c 0.001) between both Aβ-PET and tau-PET levels with abundance of genera Butyricicoccus and Ruminococcus. Moreover, differential abundance analysis (Figure 2) showed that these bacteria have lower than expected abundance in individuals with elevated Aβ-PET and tau-PET measures (Aβ-PET, Ruminococcus: OR = 0.89, [0.88, 0.91]; Butyricicoccus: OR = 0.77, [0.72, 0.81]); (tau-PET in the rhinal cortex: Ruminococcus: OR = 0.82, [0.8, 0.83]; Butyricicoccus: OR = 0.91 [0.88, 0.94]); (tau-PET in the inferotemporal cortex:, Ruminococcus: OR = 0.79 [0.78, 0.81]; Butyricicoccus: OR = 0.83 [0.81, 0.86]). Conversely, we observed an increased abundance of genera Cytophaga (tau-PET in the rhinal cortex, OR = 1.78, [1.15, 2.75]) and Alistipes (tau-PET in the rhinal cortex, OR = 1.19, [1.17, 1.22]) in individuals with high Aβ-PET and tau-PET levels. Finally, functional analysis showed that Butyricicoccus and Ruminococcus are butyrate-producing bacteria harboring neuroprotective effects. Conclusion: We showed that elevated measures of Aβ-PET and tau-PET in the rhinal and the inferior temporal cortex are associated with a reduced abundance of butyrate-producing Butyricicoccus and Ruminococcus in the gut of middle-aged individuals from the FHS. As these bacteria harbor neuroprotective effects, further studies are needed to elucidate underlying mechanisms and assess their therapeutic potential

Association of metabolic dysregulation with volumetric brain magnetic resonance imaging and cognitive markers of subclinical brain aging in middle-aged adults: the Framingham Offspring Study.

ObjectiveDiabetic and prediabtic states, including insulin resistance, fasting hyperglycemia, and hyperinsulinemia, are associated with metabolic dysregulation. These components have been individually linked to increased risks of cognitive decline and Alzheimer's disease. We aimed to comprehensively relate all of the components of metabolic dysregulation to cognitive function and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in middle-aged adults.Research design and methodsFramingham Offspring participants who underwent volumetric MRI and detailed cognitive testing and were free of clinical stroke and dementia during examination 7 (1998-2001) constituted our study sample (n = 2,439; 1,311 women; age 61 ± 9 years). We related diabetes, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), fasting insulin, and glycohemoglobin levels to cross-sectional MRI measures of total cerebral brain volume (TCBV) and hippocampal volume and to verbal and visuospatial memory and executive function. We serially adjusted for age, sex, and education alone (model A), additionally for other vascular risk factors (model B), and finally, with the inclusion of apolipoprotein E-ε4, plasma homocysteine, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 (model C).ResultsWe observed an inverse association between all indices of metabolic dysfunction and TCBV in all models (P < 0.030). The observed difference in TCBV between participants with and without diabetes was equivalent to approximately 6 years of chronologic aging. Diabetes and elevated glycohemoglobin, HOMA-IR, and fasting insulin were related to poorer executive function scores (P < 0.038), whereas only HOMA-IR and fasting insulin were inversely related to visuospatial memory (P < 0.007).ConclusionsMetabolic dysregulation, especially insulin resistance, was associated with lower brain volumes and executive function in a large, relatively healthy, middle-aged, community-based cohort

Poor cognition is associated with increased abundance of Alistipes and decreased abundance of Clostridium genera in the gut

Background: Brain and gut health are intricately connected via the gut-microbiota-brain axis. Studies have shown that gut dysbiosis is associated with neurodegenerative diseases, including Alzheimer’s disease. However, how cognitive changes affects the gut microbiome structure is currently understudied. We aimed to assess the association between the gut microbiome and global cognitive scores in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS). Method: Our sample included 1,014 participants (mean age 52, 55% female) of the third generation FHS cohort with available stool samples, cognitive assessments, and no history of dementia or stroke (Table 1).We quantified the gut microbiome composition using 16S rRNA sequencing and performed multivariable association and differential abundance analyses, adjusting for age, sex, education, BMI, and other confounders. The global cognitive score (GCS) was built using neuropsychological assessments of four cognitive domains: Executive function (trails-making B); Processing speed (visual reproduction immediate and delayed); Language (similarity test); and Memory (logical memory immediate and delayed). Participants were additionally stratified by GCS with lower and higher scores indicating poor and normal cognition, respectively. Result: Our results (Figure 1) showed that individuals with poor cognition have a decreased abundance of genera Clostridium (OR = 0.69, 95% CI [0.55, 0.86]) and Ruminococcus (0.93, [0.93, 0.94]). Meanwhile, the genus Alistipes, previously connected to anxiety, chronic fatigue syndrome, depression, and hypertension, was more abundant (1.06, [1.05, 1.06]) in the poor cognition group. Moreover, the genus Pseudobutyrivibrio, a butyrate-producing bacteria from the rumen, was also found to be highly abundant (1.12, [1.11, 1.14]) in the poor cognition compared to normal. Finally, there was no difference in alpha and beta diversity between cognitive groups (Figure 2). Conclusion: Our study suggests that the abundance of several genera, including Pseudobutyrivibrio, Alistipes, Ruminococcus, and Clostridium is associated with cognition in middle-age. Clostridium was previously proposed as novel probiotics for human health, and increasing its abundance was viewed as an effective strategy to regulate and maintain the homeostasis of the gut microbiota. As all these bacteria have neuroprotective effects, manipulating their abundance through diet and pre/pro-biotics could be a research path for preserving global cognitive function in the future

Association of Metabolic Dysregulation With Volumetric Brain Magnetic Resonance Imaging and Cognitive Markers of Subclinical Brain Aging in Middle-Aged Adults

Objective: Diabetic and prediabtic states, including insulin resistance, fasting hyperglycemia, and hyperinsulinemia, are associated with metabolic dysregulation. These components have been individually linked to increased risks of cognitive decline and Alzheimer’s disease. We aimed to comprehensively relate all of the components of metabolic dysregulation to cognitive function and brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in middle-aged adults. Research Design and Methods: Framingham Offspring participants who underwent volumetric MRI and detailed cognitive testing and were free of clinical stroke and dementia during examination 7 (1998–2001) constituted our study sample (n = 2,439; 1,311 women; age 61 ± 9 years). We related diabetes, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), fasting insulin, and glycohemoglobin levels to cross-sectional MRI measures of total cerebral brain volume (TCBV) and hippocampal volume and to verbal and visuospatial memory and executive function. We serially adjusted for age, sex, and education alone (model A), additionally for other vascular risk factors (model B), and finally, with the inclusion of apolipoprotein E-ε4, plasma homocysteine, C-reactive protein, and interleukin-6 (model C). Results: We observed an inverse association between all indices of metabolic dysfunction and TCBV in all models (P < 0.030). The observed difference in TCBV between participants with and without diabetes was equivalent to approximately 6 years of chronologic aging. Diabetes and elevated glycohemoglobin, HOMA-IR, and fasting insulin were related to poorer executive function scores (P < 0.038), whereas only HOMA-IR and fasting insulin were inversely related to visuospatial memory (P < 0.007). Conclusions: Metabolic dysregulation, especially insulin resistance, was associated with lower brain volumes and executive function in a large, relatively healthy, middle-aged, community-based cohort

Hippocampal subfield volumes in COVID-19: a preliminary multicenter study using 7T MRI

Background: Hippocampal formation atrophy is a well-established imaging biomarker of several neurological diseases, including Alzheimer\u27s disease, temporal lobe epilepsy, and schizophrenia. The hippocampus is divided into subfields that have different functions and vary in sensitivity to different diseases. This study investigates the potential interaction between COVID-19 and the various hippocampus subfields, which may shed light on the long-term neurological consequences of the virus. Method: We obtained high-resolution T1-weighted (T1w) and T2-weighted (T2w) MRI images using 7T scanners located at three sites in two countries: Pittsburgh (n=14) and Texas (San Antonio and Houston) (n=40) in the USA, and Nottingham, UK (n=33). We evaluated the hippocampus subfields using the ASHS package [1-3]. Imaging sets of 51 subjects with minimal or no manual segmentation corrections (Figures 1 and 2) were included in the analysis. We conducted T-tests with Bonferroni correction, adjusting for age and intracranial volume to identify the differences in hippocampus subfield volumes across groups. Result: Participants who needed admission into the ICU due to Covid-19 showed a significantly lower (p-value=0.0034) left CA1 volume compared to participants who did not require ICU (Figure 3). In addition, several other non-significant trends were observed. Conclusion: Our preliminary findings suggest that Covid-19 may impact the hippocampus, particularly in patients who required intensive care. However, the study - as of to date - has a small sample size and lacks a comparison group with patients who were admitted into ICU for acute illnesses other than Covid-19. Additionally, longitudinal data is needed to track the long-term effects of the disease on the hippocampal subfields

Whole blood microRNA expression associated with stroke: Results from the Framingham Heart Study

Emerging evidence suggests microRNAs (miRNAs) may play an important role in explaining variation in stroke risk and recovery in humans, yet there are still few longitudinal studies examining the association between whole blood miRNAs and stroke. Accounting for multiple testing and adjusting for potentially confounding technical and clinical variables, here we show that whole blood miR-574-3p expression was significantly lower in participants with chronic stroke compared to non-cases. To explore the functional relevance of our findings, we analyzed miRNA-mRNA whole blood co-expression, pathway enrichment, and brain tissue gene expression. Results suggest miR-574-3p is involved in neurometabolic and chronic neuronal injury response pathways, including brain gene expression of DBNDD2 and ELOVL1. These results suggest miR-574-3p plays a role in regulating chronic brain and systemic cellular response to stroke and thus may implicate miR-574-3p as a partial mediator of long-term stroke outcomes

Circulating ceramide ratios and risk of vascular brain aging and dementia

BACKGROUND: We determined the association between ratios of plasma ceramide species of differing fatty-acyl chain lengths and incident dementia and Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD) dementia in a large, community-based sample. METHODS: We measured plasma ceramide levels in 1892 [54% women, mean age 70.1 (SD 6.9) yr.] dementia-free Framingham Offspring Study cohort participants between 2005 and 2008. We related ratios of very long-chain (C24:0, C22:0) to long-chain (C16:0) ceramides to subsequent risk of incident dementia and AD dementia. Structural MRI brain measures were included as secondary outcomes. RESULTS: During a median 6.5 year follow-up, 81 participants developed dementia, of whom 60 were diagnosed with AD dementia. In multivariable Cox-proportional hazards analyses, each standard deviation (SD) increment in the ratio of ceramides C24:0/C16:0 was associated with a 27% reduction in the risk of dementia (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.56-0.96) and AD dementia (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53-1.00). The ratio of ceramides C22:0/C16:0 was also inversely associated with incident dementia (HR per SD 0.75, 95% CI 0.57-0.98), and approached statistical significance for AD (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.53-1.01, P = 0.056). Higher ratios of ceramides C24:0/C16:0 and C22:0/C16:0 were also cross-sectionally associated with lower white matter hyperintensity burden on MRI (-0.05 ± 0.02, P = 0.02; -0.06 ± 0.02, P = 0.003; respectively per SD increase), but not with other MRI brain measures. CONCLUSIONS: Higher plasma ratios of very long-chain to long-chain ceramides are associated with a reduced risk of incident dementia and AD dementia in our community-based sample. Circulating ceramide ratios may serve as potential biomarkers for predicting dementia risk in cognitively healthy adults

Lexical retrieval in discourse: An early indicator of Alzheimer’s dementia

We examined the progression of lexical-retrieval deficits in individuals with neuropathologically determined Alzheimer’s disease (AD; n=23) and a comparison group without criteria for AD (n=24) to determine whether linguistic changes were a significant marker of the disease. Our participants underwent multiple administrations of a neuropsychological battery, with initial administration occurring on average 16 years prior to death. The battery included the Boston Naming Test (BNT), a letter fluency task (FAS) and written description of the Cookie Theft Picture (CTP). Repeated measures analysis revealed that the AD-group showed progressively greater decline in FAS and CTP lexical performance than the comparison group. Crosssectional time-specific group comparisons indicated that the CTP differentiated performance between the two groups at 7–9 years prior to death and FAS and BNT only at 2–4 years. These results suggest that lexical retrieval deficits in written discourse serve as an early indicator of AD

The prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathology in old age: harmonisation of 12 measures across six community-based autopsy studies of dementia

Background: Population-based autopsy studies provide valuable insights into the causes of dementia but are limited by sample size and restriction to specific populations. Harmonisation across studies increases statistical power and allows meaningful comparisons between studies. We aimed to harmonise neuropathology measures across studies and assess the prevalence, correlation, and co-occurrence of neuropathologies in the ageing population. Methods: We combined data from six community-based autopsy cohorts in the US and the UK in a coordinated cross-sectional analysis. Among all decedents aged 80 years or older, we assessed 12 neuropathologies known to be associated with dementia: arteriolosclerosis, atherosclerosis, macroinfarcts, microinfarcts, lacunes, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, Braak neurofibrillary tangle stage, Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's disease (CERAD) diffuse plaque score, CERAD neuritic plaque score, hippocampal sclerosis, limbic-predominant age-related TDP-43 encephalopathy neuropathologic change (LATE-NC), and Lewy body pathology. We divided measures into three groups describing level of confidence (low, moderate, and high) in harmonisation. We described the prevalence, correlations, and co-occurrence of neuropathologies. Findings: The cohorts included 4354 decedents aged 80 years or older with autopsy data. All cohorts included more women than men, with the exception of one study that only included men, and all cohorts included decedents at older ages (range of mean age at death across cohorts 88·0–91·6 years). Measures of Alzheimer's disease neuropathological change, Braak stage and CERAD scores, were in the high confidence category, whereas measures of vascular neuropathologies were in the low (arterioloscerosis, atherosclerosis, cerebral amyloid angiopathy, and lacunes) or moderate (macroinfarcts and microinfarcts) categories. Neuropathology prevalence and co-occurrence was high (2443 [91%] of 2695 participants had more than one of six key neuropathologies and 1106 [41%] of 2695 had three or more). Co-occurrence was strongly but not deterministically associated with dementia status. Vascular and Alzheimer's disease features clustered separately in correlation analyses, and LATE-NC had moderate associations with Alzheimer's disease measures (eg, Braak stage ρ=0·31 [95% CI 0·20–0·42]). Interpretation: Higher variability and more inconsistency in the measurement of vascular neuropathologies compared with the measurement of Alzheimer's disease neuropathological change suggests the development of new frameworks for the measurement of vascular neuropathologies might be helpful. Results highlight the complexity and multi-morbidity of the brain pathologies that underlie dementia in older adults and suggest that prevention efforts and treatments should be multifaceted. Funding: Gates Ventures