Dealing with substantial heterogeneity in Cochrane reviews. Cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dealing with heterogeneity in meta-analyses is often tricky, and there is only limited advice for authors on what to do. We investigated how authors addressed different degrees of heterogeneity, in particular whether they used a fixed effect model, which assumes that all the included studies are estimating the same true effect, or a random effects model where this is not assumed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We sampled randomly 60 Cochrane reviews from 2008, which presented a result in its first meta-analysis with substantial heterogeneity (I²greater than 50%, i.e. more than 50% of the variation is due to heterogeneity rather than chance). We extracted information on choice of statistical model, how the authors had handled the heterogeneity, and assessed the methodological quality of the reviews in relation to this.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The distribution of heterogeneity was rather uniform in the whole I²interval, 50-100%. A fixed effect model was used in 33 reviews (55%), but there was no correlation between I²and choice of model (P = 0.79). We considered that 20 reviews (33%), 16 of which had used a fixed effect model, had major problems. The most common problems were: use of a fixed effect model and lack of rationale for choice of that model, lack of comment on even severe heterogeneity and of reservations and explanations of its likely causes. The problematic reviews had significantly fewer included trials than other reviews (4.3 vs. 8.0, P = 0.024). The problems became less pronounced with time, as those reviews that were most recently updated more often used a random effects model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>One-third of Cochrane reviews with substantial heterogeneity had major problems in relation to their handling of heterogeneity. More attention is needed to this issue, as the problems we identified can be essential for the conclusions of the reviews.</p

Influence of topography on tide propagation and amplification in semi-enclosed basins

An idealized model for tide propagation and amplification in semi-enclosed rectangular basins is presented, accounting for depth differences by a combination of longitudinal and lateral topographic steps. The basin geometry is formed by several adjacent compartments of identical width, each having either a uniform depth or two depths separated by a transverse topographic step. The problem is forced by an incoming Kelvin wave at the open end, while allowing waves to radiate outward. The solution in each compartment is written as the superposition of (semi)-analytical wave solutions in an infinite channel, individually satisfying the depth-averaged linear shallow water equations on the f plane, including bottom friction. A collocation technique is employed to satisfy continuity of elevation and flux across the longitudinal topographic steps between the compartments. The model results show that the tidal wave in shallow parts displays slower propagation, enhanced dissipation and amplified amplitudes. This reveals a resonance mechanism, occurring when\ud the length of the shallow end is roughly an odd multiple of the quarter Kelvin wavelength. Alternatively, for sufficiently wide basins, also Poincaré waves may become resonant. A transverse step implies different wavelengths of the incoming and reflected Kelvin wave, leading to increased amplitudes in shallow regions and a shift of amphidromic points in the direction of the deeper part. Including the shallow parts near the basin’s closed end (thus capturing the Kelvin resonance mechanism) is essential to reproduce semi-diurnal and diurnal\ud tide observations in the Gulf of California, the Adriatic Sea and the Persian Gulf

Tree migration-rates : narrowing the gap between inferred post-glacial rates and projected rates

Faster-than-expected post-glacial migration rates of trees have puzzled ecologists for a long time. In Europe, post-glacial migration is assumed to have started from the three southern European peninsulas (southern refugia), where large areas remained free of permafrost and ice at the peak of the last glaciation. However, increasing palaeobotanical evidence for the presence of isolated tree populations in more northerly microrefugia has started to change this perception. Here we use the Northern Eurasian Plant Macrofossil Database and palaeoecological literature to show that post-glacial migration rates for trees may have been substantially lower (60–260 m yr–1) than those estimated by assuming migration from southern refugia only (115–550 m yr–1), and that early-successional trees migrated faster than mid- and late-successional trees. Post-glacial migration rates are in good agreement with those recently projected for the future with a population dynamical forest succession and dispersal model, mainly for early-successional trees and under optimal conditions. Although migration estimates presented here may be conservative because of our assumption of uniform dispersal, tree migration-rates clearly need reconsideration. We suggest that small outlier populations may be a key factor in understanding past migration rates and in predicting potential future range-shifts. The importance of outlier populations in the past may have an analogy in the future, as many tree species have been planted beyond their natural ranges, with a more beneficial microclimate than their regional surroundings. Therefore, climate-change-induced range-shifts in the future might well be influenced by such microrefugia

Information diffusion in the U.S. real estate investment trust market

This study examines the information diffusion process in the U.S. Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market with a focus on the impacts of changing market environments, information supply, and information demand on the lead-lag effect. The results suggest that a significant lead-lag relationship exists between the lagged returns of big REITs and the current returns of small REITs. This relationship has slightly decreased along with policy and environment changes that occurred in the U.S. REIT market during the study period from 1986 to 2012, while still remaining significant in the most recent REIT market. The process of information diffusion is becoming unstable in recent years and the reverse lead-lag effect from small REITs to big REITs is observed especially when REIT market liquidity and return volatility are high. The lead-lag effect among REITs is driven largely by slow adjustment to negative information, which is magnified by a lack of information supply, especially as demand for such information increases. Finally, information flow from REITs with more media coverage to those with less media coverage becomes even more sluggish than the information flow from big REITs to small REITs

Dairy consumption and cardiometabolic diseases: systematic review and updated meta-analyses of prospective cohort studies

Purpose of Review Dairy products contain both beneficial and harmful nutrients in relation to cardiometabolic diseases. Here, we provide the latest scientific evidence regarding the relationship between dairy products and cardiometabolic diseases by reviewing the literature and updating meta-analyses of observational studies. Recent Findings We updated our previous meta-analyses of cohort studies on type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke with nine studies and confirmed previous results. Total dairy and low-fat dairy (per 200 g/d) were inversely associated with a 3–4% lower risk of diabetes. Yogurt was non-linearly inversely associatedwith diabetes (RR = 0.86, 95%CI: 0.83–0.90 at 80 g/ d). Total dairy and milk were not associated with CHD (RR~1.0). An increment of 200 g of daily milk intake was associated with an 8% lower risk of stroke. Summary The latest scientific evidence confirmed neutral or beneficial associations between dairy products and risk of cardiometabolic diseases

Surgery, with or without tamoxifen, vs tamoxifen alone for older women with operable breast cancer: Cochrane review

The published literature comparing surgery, with or without adjuvant endocrine therapy, with endocrine therapy alone in older women with operable breast cancer was systematically reviewed.The design used is Cochrane review. Randomised controlled trials retrieved from the Cochrane Breast Cancer Group Specialised Register on 29 June 2005. Eligible studies recruited women aged 70 years or over with operable breast cancer, fit for surgery under general anaesthia. The studies compared surgery (either mastectomy or wide local excision, with or without endocrine therapy) to endocrine therapy alone. Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS). Double data extraction and quality assessment were undertaken. Seven eligible trials were identified of which six had published time-to-event data. The quality of the allocation concealment was adequate in three studies and unclear in the remainder. In each case the endocrine therapy used was tamoxifen. When surgery alone was compared to endocrine therapy alone, there was no significant difference in OS (hazard ratio (HR) 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.74–1.30, P=0.9), but a significant difference in PFS (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.39–0.77, P=0.0006). When surgery with adjuvant endocrine therapy was compared to endocrine therapy alone, there was no significant difference in OS (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.73–1.00, P=0.06), but a significant difference in PFS (HR 0.65 (95% CI 0.53–0.81, P=0.0001) for surgery plus endocrine therapy vs primary endocrine. The regimens have different side effect profiles with one study suggesting increased psychosocial morbidity at 3 months in the surgical arm, which resolves by 2 years. Primary endocrine therapy with tamoxifen is associated with inferior local disease control but non-inferior survival to surgery for breast cancer in older women. Trials are needed to evaluate appropriate selection criteria for its use in terms of patient co-morbidity and quality of life. Trials are needed to evaluate the clinical effectiveness of aromatase inhibitors as primary therapy for this population

An unusual cause of granulomatous disease

BACKGROUND: Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) is an inherited disorder of phagocytic cells caused by an inability to generate active microbicidal oxygen species required kill certain types of fungi and bacteria. This leads to recurrent life-threatening bacterial and fungal infections with tissue granuloma formation. CASE PRESENTATION: We describe a case of X-linked Chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) diagnosed in an 18-year-old male. He initially presented with granulomatous disease mimicking sarcoidosis and was treated with corticosteroids. He subsequently developed Burkholderia cepacia complex pneumonia and further investigation confirmed a diagnosis of CGD. CONCLUSION: Milder phenotypes of CGD are now being recognised. CGD should be considered in patients of any age with granulomatous diseases, especially if there is a history of recurrent or atypical infection

Recommendations by Cochrane Review Groups for assessment of the risk of bias in studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Assessing the risk of bias in individual studies in a systematic review can be done using individual components or by summarizing the study quality in an overall score.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We examined the instructions to authors of the 50 Cochrane Review Groups that focus on clinical interventions for recommendations on methodological quality assessment of studies.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Forty-one of the review groups (82%) recommended quality assessment using components and nine using a scale. All groups recommending components recommended to assess concealment of allocation, compared to only two of the groups recommending scales (P < 0.0001). Thirty-five groups (70%) recommended assessment of sequence generation and 21 groups (42%) recommended assessment of intention-to-treat analysis. Only 28 groups (56%) had specific recommendations for using the quality assessment of studies analytically in reviews, with sensitivity analysis, quality as an inclusion threshold and subgroup analysis being the most commonly recommended methods. The scales recommended had problems in the individual items and some of the groups recommending components recommended items not related to bias in their quality assessment.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We found that recommendations by some groups were not based on empirical evidence and many groups had no recommendations on how to use the quality assessment in reviews. We suggest that all Cochrane Review Groups refer to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, which is evidence-based, in their instructions to authors and that their own guidelines are kept to a minimum and describe only how methodological topics that are specific to their fields should be handled.</p

Biomarker Changes Associated with Tuberculin Skin Test (TST) Conversion: A Two-Year Longitudinal Follow-Up Study in Exposed Household Contacts

Background:A high prevalence (50-80%) of Tuberculin Skin Test Positivity (TST+ \u3eor=10 mm indurations) has been reported in TB endemic countries. This pool forms a huge reservoir for new incident TB cases. However, immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion are largely unknown. The objective of this study was to identify immune biomarkers associated with TST conversion after acute Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) Methodology/Principal Findings:A 24 month longitudinal study was carried out in a recently MTB exposed cohort of household contacts (HC = 93, 75% TST+). Control group consisted of unexposed community controls (EC = 59, 46%TST+). Cytokine secretion was assessed in whole blood cultures in response to either mycobacterial culture filtrate (CF) antigens or mitogens (PHA or LPS) using Elisa methodology. Compared to the EC group, the HC group at recruitment (Kruskal-Wallis Test) showed significantly suppressed IFN gamma (p = 0.0001), raised IL-10 (p = 0.0005) and raised TNF alpha (p = 0.001) in response to CF irrespective of their TST status. Seventeen TST-HC, showed TST conversion when retested at 6 months. Post TST conversion (paired t tests) significant increases were observed for CF induced IFN gamma (p = 0.038), IL-10 (p = 0.001) and IL-6 (p = 0.006). Cytokine responses were also compared in the exposed HC group with either recent infection [(TST converters (N = 17)] or previous infection [TST+ HC (N = 54)] at 0, 6, 12 and 24 months using ANOVA on repeated measures. Significant differences between the exposed HC groups were noted only at 6 months. CF induced IFN gamma was higher in previously infected HC group (p = 0.038) while IL-10 was higher in recently infected HC group (p = 0.041). Mitogen induced cytokine secretion showed similar differences for different group.Conclusions/Significance:Our results suggest that TST conversion is associated with early increases in IFN gamma and IL-10 responses and precedes latency by several months post exposure