Los Recursos Hídricos en Costa Rica: un enfoque estratégico

En este documento se presenta un diagnóstico del estado de los recursos hídricos terrestres de la República de Costa Rica (CR). En comparación a una gran cantidad de países del mundo, CR tiene una amplia disponibilidad de agua (alrededor de 25,900 m3 hab-1 año-1) y un porcentaje muy bajo de uso (alrededor de 2.4%). Esto hace a CR un país con un estrés hídrico muy bajo. Sin embargo, estos promedios nacionales son indicadores deficientes del potencial de explotación adicional del país y de la situación de estrés en algunas regiones en términos de abastecimiento y de la calidad de los recursos hídricos. De hecho, cuando se toman en cuenta limitaciones como la conservación de agua para garantizar la sostenibilidad de los recursos naturales y el desarrollo socio-económico, el porcentaje de uso adecuado del agua puede ser un número muy bajo. Esto sugiere que más y mejores estudios de manejo y planeamiento integrado de cuencas son necesarios para optimizar el uso de los recursos hídricos. Durante los últimos 20 años, CR ha sido reconocido como un país amigable con el ambiente, gracias a sus esfuerzos de conservación y la protección de ecosistemas, pero esto contrasta con la severa contaminación de ríos y acuíferos urbanos. Aunque algunos de estos problemas de décadas se están finalmente empezando a resolver, hay mucho por hacer en el futuro cercano. Mejores estudios de manejo y planeamiento integrado de cuencas son necesarios. La protección de los recursos naturales del país para las generaciones futuras es un gran reto que requerirá el soporte, consenso y coordinación de muchos sectores de la sociedad.Universidad de Costa Rica/[VI-805-A9-224]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[VI-808-A9-180]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Climate of an oceanic island in the Eastern Pacific: Isla del Coco, Costa Rica, Central America

Studies of atmosphere-ocean interaction in the Pacific of Costa Rican are scarce. To identify oceanographic systems that may be influencing climate near Cocos Island (Eastern Tropical Pacific Seascape) we conducted six scientific expeditions between 2007 and 2012. Two automated weather stations were set near Chatham and Wafer bays during the expeditions. Data included records from National Meteorological Institute, Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature (ERSST). The climate is typical of the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Its seasonality is driven by precipitation variability associated with meridional migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone. The seasonal cycle has two peaks, in May and July, a relative minimum between them in June, and the absolute minimum in February. Most of the precipitation is recorded from April to November. Most rain events have short duration and low intensity. An SST trend was observed from January 1854 to December 2013, coherent with regional warming temperature observations. From 1998 to 2013 there were changes in distributions of almost all meteorological parameters. The combination of these factors resulted in higher evapotranspiration values through the daily cycle, especially during the night time. Precipitation (P) positive anomalies tended to be associated with positive air surface temperature (AST) and SST anomalies and negative global radiation (GR) anomalies. Negative P anomalies tended to be associated with negative AST, SST and positive GR anomalies. Relative humidity (RH) negative anomalies tend to be associated with positive wind speed (WS) anomalies, and the WS effect is opposite for positive RH anomalies. During the cold Niño 3 condition of October 2007, negative P, AST, SST and RH anomalies were observed in concordance with positive WS and GR anomalies, in agreement with the conceptual model of climate system response at Isla del Coco to cold ENSO conditions.Estudios de la interacción atmósfera-océano en el Pacífico de Costa Rica son escasos. Para identificar los sistemas oceanográficos que pueden estar influyendo el clima cerca de la Isla del Coco (Corredor de Protección Marina del Pacífico Tropical del Este), realizamos seis expediciones científicas entre 2007 y 2012. Dos estaciones meteorológicas automáticas fueron instaladas cerca de las bahías de Chatham y Wafer durante las expediciones. Entre los datos se incluyeron registros del Instituto Meteorológico Nacional, el Proyecto de Climatología Global de Precipitación (GPCP por sus siglas en inglés) y la Reconstrucción Extendida de Temperatura Superficial del Mar (ERSST por sus siglas en inglés). El clima es típico del Pacífico Tropical del Este. Su estacionalidad está impulsada por la variabilidad en la precipitación asociada con la migración meridional de la Zona de Convergencia Intertropical. El ciclo anual de precipitación tiene dos picos en mayo y julio, un mínimo relativo entre ellos en junio, y un mínimo absoluto en febrero. La mayoría de la precipitación se registra de abril a noviembre. La mayoría de los eventos tienen corta duración y baja intensidad. Una tendencia en temperatura superficial del mar (TSM) fue observada de enero 1854 a diciembre 2013, coherente con las observaciones de calentamiento en la región. De 1998 a 2013 hubo cambios en las distribuciones de casi todos los parámetros meteorológicos. La combinación de estos factores resultó en tasas más altas de evapotranspiración a través del ciclo diario, especialmente durante la noche. Anomalías positivas de precipitación (P) tienden a ser asociados con anomalías positivas de temperatura superficial del aire (TSA) y de TSM, y con anomalías negativas de radiación global (RG). Anomalías negativas de P tienden a ser asociadas con anomalías negativas de TSA, TSM y anomalías positivas de RG. Anomalías negativas de humedad relativa (HR) tienden a ser asociadas con anomalías positivas de velocidad del viento (VV), y el efecto de la VV es opuesto para anomalías positivas de HR. Durante la condición fría de Niño 3 de octubre del 2007, anomalías negativas de P, TSA, TSM y HR fueron observadas en concordancia con anomalías positivas de VV y RG, de acuerdo con el modelo conceptual de la respuesta del sistema climático en la Isla del Coco ante condiciones frías de ENOS

Tropical Cyclones Losses by Economic Sector in Costa Rica, Central America

Tropical cyclones normally affect Central America and Costa Rica. Population growth and inefficient land use planning increases the exposure to natural hazards related to tropical cyclones such as landslides and floods. The Ministry of National Planning and Economic Policy of Costa Rica gathered all the economic impacts by municipality in every economic sector since Hurricane Joan in 1988. Our results indicate that road infrastructure, agriculture, sewerage, and housing were the most affected economic sectors in the last three decades in the country. Normally, the Pacific basin municipalities are the most affected units due to the indirect impact of tropical cyclones in Costa Rica. These results unravel the most affected municipalities and economic sectors by tropical cyclones in the country and is a useful approach that can be applied to other countries and regions affected by these phenomena throughout the tropics.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B9-454]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-C0-610]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A4-906]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Sociales::Facultad de Ciencias Sociales::Escuela de Geografí

Propuesta metodológica para la predicción climática estacional del veranillo en la cuenca del río Tempisque en el Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica

El ciclo anual de la precipitación en la vertiente del Pacífico de América Central, se caracteriza por tener dos máximos, uno entre mayo-junio y el otro entre setiembre-octubre, además de una estación seca de noviembre a abril y un periodo corto en el que las lluvias disminuyen durante julio-agosto, conocido como veranillo o canícula. En este trabajo se estudia la predictibilidad del veranillo, utilizando cuatro registros de precipitación diarios de las estaciones meteorológicas de Nicoya, Santa Cruz, Bagaces y Liberia, para el periodo 1937-2010 y localizadas en la cuenca del río Tempisque, provincia de Guanacaste, vertiente del Pacífico Norte de Costa Rica en América Central. Dentro de los aspectos considerados están la predictibilidad de la magnitud e intensidad del veranillo. Se explora la modulación de estos aspectos por fuentes de variabilidad climática asociadas con el Pacífico ecuatorial del Este (ENOS) y al océano Atlántico (AMO), incluyendo su variabilidad interanual y decenal. Cuando las anomalías normalizadas de ambos índices se comparan, se encontró que los eventos cálidos (fríos) del ENOS tienden a estar asociados con condiciones más (menos) secas durante el veranillo y estas condiciones se refuerzan cuando están asociados a su vez con condiciones de anomalías negativas (positivas) del AMO.On the Pacific slope of Central America, the precipitation annual cycle is characterized by two rainfall maxima in MayJune and September-October, an extended dry season from November to April, and a shorter reduced precipitation period during July-August known as Mid-Summer Drought (MSD) or “veranillo” and “canícula” in Spanish. Four daily gauge stations records, e.g. Nicoya, Santa Cruz, Liberia and Bagaces, located in the Tempisque river basin, province of Guanacaste, North Pacific slope of Costa Rica in Central America, were studied to explore the predictability of the MSD from 1937 to 2010. Among the aspects considered are the predictability of the MSD intensity and depth of the minimum. The modulation of these aspects by climate variability sources such as the Equatorial Eastern Pacific (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was lately explored, including their interannual and decadal variability. When the normalized comparison is performed between the indices, it was found that warm (cool) ENSO events tend to be associated with dry (wet) MSD conditions and this condition is reinforced during periods with negative (positive) AMO anomalies.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-507]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B6-143]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-286]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-065]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-532]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A4-906]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-227]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de FísicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

Observed Changes (1970-1999) in Extreme Hydroclimatic Events in Central America

Previous studies have shown that most of Central America has been experiencing warming trends during the last 30-50 years, while precipitation annual totals have not changed much. Warming alone can exacerbate the effects of droughts as potential evapotranspiration increases, causing drier soils and higher aridity. It is evident that the demand of water from the atmosphere has becoming larger. Central America is a region known to be impacted by wet and dry extreme events. Within the scenario of higher aridity, severe and sustained droughts can produce a larger number of impacts in the region. But also, wet extreme events are the cause of severe impacts. Analysis of observed precipitation extremes show a trend toward more severe events in recent years. In this presentation, recent trends in different hydroclimatic variables as well as in metrics representing extreme events are analyzed.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-507]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B6-143]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-286]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B4-227]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-065]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A9-532]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A4-906]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de FísicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

CMIP5 climate change hydroclimatic projections for Central America

A review of a series of articles related to the use of General Circulation Models (GCMs) projections for characterizing future climate changes in Central America are presented. Previous work using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP3) models showed that aridity and drought (reflected for example in reductions in runoff, streamflow, and precipitation) will be more frequent in the future under low and high emission scenarios (B1 and A2). Data from 107 GCM runs from the CMIP5 version, were evaluated and ranked according to their skill in reproducing observed climatological temperature and precipitation patterns, as well as realistic El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) precipitation teleconnection patterns. The best 14 model runs were used in a projection of precipitation and temperature changes for the mid-century horizon. It is shown that for two forcing scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 the northern (southern) part of Central America will be drier (wetter) in the future than the baseline (historical) scenario. This is important, as the north-south socioeconomic contrast suggests that northern countries will suffer the most as a result of climate change, due to increased social vulnerabilities and aridity. The Caribbean Low-Level Jet (an important feature of the regional climate) show little change at mid-century horizons. The most significant changes for the mid-summer drought (MSD) in the future are for the duration, which is projected to increase by an average of over a week, and the MSD minimum precipitation, which is projected to decrease.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-286]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B7-507]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B8-766]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B9-454]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A4-906]/UCR/Costa RicaConsejo Nacional para Investigaciones Científicas y Tecnológicas/[805-B7-507]/CONICIT/Costa RicaMinisterio de Ciencia, Tecnología y Telecomunicaciones/[805-B7-507]/MICITT/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de FísicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

Visualization of 40 Years of Tropical Cyclone Positions and Their Rainfall

Correos de investigadores: [email protected] || [email protected] || [email protected] || [email protected] article focuses on a visualization of tropical cyclone track data occurring over a 40- year period (1970–2010) and their relationship with (extremely) heavy rainfall reported by 88 Central American weather stations. The purpose of the visualization is to associate the paths of tropical cyclones in oceanic areas with heavy rainfall inland. Thus, the potential for producing a set of rainfall patterns might somehow help in predicting where different impacts like flooding might occur when tropical cyclones develop in specific oceanic regions. The visualization will serve as a key tool for CIGEFI scientists to apply in their work to determine critical positions of the tropical cyclones associated with extremely heavy rainfall events at daily timescales.Universidad de Costa Rica/[805-B9-454]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-C0-610]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[EC-497]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A4-906]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-C0-074]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-A1-715]/UCR/Costa RicaUniversidad de Costa Rica/[805-B0-810]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de FísicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigación en Ciencias del Mar y Limnología (CIMAR

The Mesoamerican mid-summer drought: the impact of its definition on occurrences and recent changes

The mid-summer drought, veranillo or canícula, is a phenomenon experienced in many areas, including Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean. It generally is experienced as reduced rainfall in July–August, in the middle of the typical rainy season (May–September). Many past studies have attempted to quantify changes in mid-summer drought characteristics during the recent past or for future climate projections. To do this, objective definitions of a mid-summer drought’s occurrence, strength, and duration have been developed by many researchers. In this effort we adopt a recent set of definitions and examine the impact of varying these on the characterization of mid-summer droughts and the detected changes over the past 4 decades. We find the selection of a minimum intensity threshold has a dramatic effect on the results of both the area considered as experiencing a midsummer drought and the changes detected in the recent historical record. The intensity chosen can affect both the magnitude and direction of changes reported in the recent observed record. Further, we find that the typical mid-summer drought pattern may not be occurring during the time it has historically; whether examining past or future changes or developing improved seasonal forecasts, the non-stationarity of its timing should be accommodated.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Downscaling With Constructed Analogues: Daily Precipitation and Temperature Fields Over The United States

Daily precipitation and average temperature patterns for the contiguous United States were downscaled from a 2.5 x 2.5 degree (coarse) resolution grid to a 1/8 x 1/8 degree (fine) resolution grid using a constructed‐analogues method. Choice of predictors, and the selection of subsets of most‐suitable historical dates to be included in the constructed analogues proved to be important determinants of the method’s skill, especially for precipitation. The downscaling method skillfully reproduces daily variations of precipitation and average temperature anomalies, as well as seasonal cycles, across the contiguous United States. The method tends to overestimate the number of wet days, producing a very light “drizzle” on many of the effectively dry days. There are also biases in the monthly climatologies of precipitation and average temperature in some regions, which tend to average out at annual timescales. Averaging daily downscaled patterns into monthly means yielded even more skillful results, capturing about 55 percent of the variations of monthly precipitation anomalies and about 80 percent of the variations of average temperature monthly anomalies across the contiguous United States. The choice of the domain of the predictor also influences the skill. For example, in California, the most skillful precipitation downscaling was obtained when the precipitation predictors covered the state, whereas average temperature downscaling was most skillful when average temperature predictors included continent‐wide patterns. Overall, the method showed encouraging results for downscaling daily precipitation and average temperature continentalwide patterns in North America—in particular, those of the western United States.California Energy Commission, PIER Energy ‐ Related Environmental Research/[CEC‐500‐2007‐123]//Estados UnidosCalifornia Energy Commission///Estados UnidosUnited States Department of Energy///Estados UnidosU.S. Geological Survey’s Priority Ecosystems Science//USGS/Estados UnidosUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI

Aridity Trends in Central America: A Spatial Correlation Analysis

Trend analyses are common in several types of climate change studies. In many cases, finding evidence that the trends are different from zero in hydroclimate variables is of particular interest. However, when estimating the confidence interval of a set of hydroclimate stations or gridded data the spatial correlation between can affect the significance assessment using for example traditional non-parametric and parametric methods. For this reason, Monte Carlo simulations are needed in order to generate maps of corrected trend significance. In this article, we determined the significance of trends in aridity, modeled runoff using the Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale Hydrological model, Hagreaves potential evapotranspiration (PET) and near-surface temperature in Central America. Linear-regression models were fitted considering that the predictor variable is the time variable (years from 1970 to 1999) and predictand variable corresponds to each of the previously mentioned hydroclimate variables. In order to establish if the temporal trends were significantly different from zero, a Mann Kendall and a Monte Carlo test were used. The spatial correlation was calculated first to correct the variance of each trend. It was assumed in this case that the trends form a spatial stochastic process that can be modeled as such. Results show that the analysis considering the spatial correlation proposed here can be used for identifying those extreme trends. However, a set of variables with strong spatial correlation such as temperature can have robust and widespread significant trends assuming independence, but the vast majority of the stations can still fail the Monte Carlo test. We must be vigilant of the statistically robust changes in key primary parameters such as temperature and precipitation, which are the driving sources of hydrological alterations that may affect social and environmental systems in the future.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias Básicas::Centro de Investigaciones Geofísicas (CIGEFI)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Ciencias Básicas::Facultad de Ciencias::Escuela de Físic