174 research outputs found

    Could the rise in mortality rates since 2015 be explained by changes in the number of delayed discharges of NHS patients?

    Get PDF
    Background: 2015 saw the largest annual spike in mortality rates in in England in almost 50 years. We examine whether these changes in mortality rates are associated with an indicator of poor functioning of health and social care – delay in hospital discharges. Methods: ONS monthly data of death counts and mortality rates for the period August 2010- March 2016 were compared to delays in discharges from NHS England data on transfers of care for acute and non-acute patients for England. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) regression models were used in analysis. Results: We estimate that each additional day an acute admission was late being discharged was associated with an increase in 0.394 deaths (95% CIs: 0.220-0.569). For each additional acute patient delayed being discharged, we found an increase of 7.322 deaths (95% CIs: 1.754-12.890). Findings for non-acute admissions were mixed. Conclusion: The increased prevalence of patients being delayed in discharge from hospital in 2015 was associated with increases in mortality, as many as 7,322 (CIs 1,754 to 12,890) deaths in a year in England. Our study provides evidence that a lower quality of performance of the NHS and adult social care as a result of austerity may be having an adverse impact on population health

    HSV-2 as a biomarker of HIV epidemic potential in female sex workers: meta-analysis, global epidemiology and implications.

    Get PDF
    This study investigated herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) seroprevalence utility as a predictor of HIV epidemic potential among female sex workers (FSWs) globally. We updated and analyzed a systematically-assembled database for paired HSV-2 and HIV seroprevalence measures among FSWs. The study identified 231 paired HSV-2/HIV prevalence measures from 40 countries. The pooled mean HIV prevalence using meta-analysis increased from 3.7% (95% CI 0.3-9.9%) among populations of FSWs with HSV-2 prevalence  65% of HIV prevalence variation, and identified a strong positive HSV-2/HIV association. Compared to populations of FSWs with HSV-2 prevalence < 25%, adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of HIV infection increased from 2.8 (95% CI 1.2-6.3) in those with HSV-2 prevalence 25-49%, to 13.4 (95% CI 6.1-29.9) in those with HSV-2 prevalence 75-100%. HSV-2 is a strong predictor of HIV epidemic potential among FSWs. HSV-2 prevalence of 25-49% indicates potential for intermediate-intensity HIV epidemics, with higher levels indicative of large epidemics. HSV-2 surveillance could inform HIV preparedness in countries where HIV prevalence among FSWs is still limited or at zero-level

    Retrospective investigation of enteric illnesses in pet animals

    Get PDF
    Recording and analysis of data are key elements to understand the epidemiology of various infectious and zoonotic diseases such as enteric pathogens and conditions. In this study, the clinical records of Alhelal Alazraq veterinary clinic in Tripoli were investigated for enteric diseases and illnesses in cats and dogs during the period of 2010–2015. The diagnostic and therapeutic guidelines within the Libyan veterinary system were also assessed and discussed based on the retrieved information and records. A total of 859 cases representing 528 (61%) from cats and 331 (39%) from dogs were retrieved and analysed using descriptive analysis. The cases were originated from five major areas from the center of Tripoli and the surrounding areas. Of these, 835/859 (97%) cases adopted antimicrobial based therapies and administered various antibiotic classes mainly and respectively using penicillin (652; 78%) and trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (229; 27%). The current study is the first retrospective investigation that analysed clinical and medical information from a major veterinary clinic in Libya. Diagnostic and therapeutic guidelines in the veterinary settings in Libya should be carefully reviewed and addressed. Retrospective studies and research programmes that monitor and investigate the occurrences of zoonotic and emerging pathogens particularly in relation to antimicrobial resistance are warranted in the Libyan health and medical system

    HIV epidemiology among female sex workers and their clients in the Middle East and North Africa:systematic review, meta-analyses, and meta-regressions

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: HIV epidemiology among female sex workers (FSWs) and their clients in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is poorly understood. We addressed this gap through a comprehensive epidemiological assessment. METHODS: A systematic review of population size estimation and HIV prevalence studies was conducted and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Risk of bias (ROB) assessments were conducted for all included studies using various quality domains, as informed by Cochrane Collaboration guidelines. The pooled mean HIV prevalence was estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of heterogeneity and temporal trends were identified through meta-regressions. RESULTS: We identified 270 size estimation studies in FSWs and 42 in clients, and 485 HIV prevalence studies in 287,719 FSWs and 69 in 29,531 clients/proxy populations. Most studies had low ROB in multiple quality domains. The median proportion of reproductive-age women reporting current/recent sex work was 0.6% (range = 0.2-2.4%) and of men reporting currently/recently buying sex was 5.7% (range = 0.3-13.8%). HIV prevalence ranged from 0 to 70% in FSWs (median = 0.1%) and 0-34.6% in clients (median = 0.4%). The regional pooled mean HIV prevalence was 1.4% (95% CI = 1.1-1.8%) in FSWs and 0.4% (95% CI = 0.1-0.7%) in clients. Country-specific pooled prevalence was < 1% in most countries, 1-5% in North Africa and Somalia, 17.3% in South Sudan, and 17.9% in Djibouti. Meta-regressions identified strong subregional variations in prevalence. Compared to Eastern MENA, the adjusted odds ratios (AORs) ranged from 0.2 (95% CI = 0.1-0.4) in the Fertile Crescent to 45.4 (95% CI = 24.7-83.7) in the Horn of Africa. There was strong evidence for increasing prevalence post-2003; the odds increased by 15% per year (AOR = 1.15, 95% CI = 1.09-1.21). There was also a large variability in sexual and injecting risk behaviors among FSWs within and across countries. Levels of HIV testing among FSWs were generally low. The median fraction of FSWs that tested for HIV in the past 12 months was 12.1% (range = 0.9-38.0%). CONCLUSIONS: HIV epidemics among FSWs are emerging in MENA, and some have reached stable endemic levels, although still some countries have limited epidemic dynamics. The epidemic has been growing for over a decade, with strong regionalization and heterogeneity. HIV testing levels were far below the service coverage target of "UNAIDS 2016-2021 Strategy.

    Protocol for a systematic review and meta-analysis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence and incidence in the Horn of Africa sub-region of the Middle East and North Africa.

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), hepatitis C virus (HCV) distribution appears to present a wide range of prevalence. The scale and nature of HCV disease burden is poorly known in the Horn of Africa sub-region of MENA including Djibouti, Somalia, and Sudan in addition to Yemen at the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this review is to provide a systematic review and synthesis of all epidemiological data on HCV prevalence and incidence among the different population groups in this sub-region of MENA. A second aim of the study is to estimate the national population-level HCV prevalence for each of these four countries. METHODS/DESIGN: The systematic review will be conducted based on the items outlined in the PRISMA statement. PubMed, Embase, and the World Health organization (WHO) regional databases will be searched for eligible studies without language or date restrictions. Observational and intervention studies reporting data on the prevalence or incidence of HCV in any population group in Djibouti, Somalia, Sudan, or Yemen will be included. Additional sources will be obtained through the database of the MENA HIV/AIDS Epidemiology Synthesis Project, including international organizations' reports and country-level reports, and abstracts of international conferences. Study and population characteristics will be extracted from eligible publications, with previously agreed pro formas; and entered into a computerized database. We will pool prevalence using DerSimonian and Laird random-effects models after a Freeman-Tukey transformation to stabilize variances. We will conduct meta-regression analysis to explore the effect of study-level characteristics as potential sources of heterogeneity. DISCUSSION: This proposed systematic review and meta-analysis aims to better describe HCV infection distribution across countries in the Horn of Africa sub-region of MENA; and between sub-population groups within each country. The study will provide empirical evidence necessary for researchers, policy-makers, and public health stakeholders to set research, policy, and programming priorities for HCV prevention, control, and treatment. SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION: PROSPERO CRD42014010318

    Epidemiology of Treponema pallidum, Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 among female sex workers in the Middle East and North Africa: systematic review and meta-analytics.

    Get PDF
    BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) and the role of commercial heterosexual sex networks in driving STI transmission in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region remain largely unknown. OBJECTIVE: To characterize the epidemiology of Treponema pallidum (syphilis), Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, Trichomonas vaginalis, and herpes simplex virus type 2 (HSV-2) among female sex workers (FSWs) in MENA using an in-depth quantitative assessment. METHODS: A systematic review on ten international, regional, and country-level databases was conducted, and reported following PRISMA guidelines. Pooled prevalences of current and/or ever infection for each STI were estimated using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of between-study heterogeneity were investigated through random-effects meta-regressions. RESULTS: One T. pallidum incidence study and 144 STI prevalence studies were identified for 45 812 FSWs in 13 MENA countries. The pooled prevalence of current infection was 12.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 8.5%-17.7%) for T. pallidum, 14.4% (95% CI = 8.2%-22.0%) for C. trachomatis, 5.7% (95% CI = 3.5%-8.4%) for N. gonorrhoeae, and 7.1% (95% CI = 4.3%-10.5%) for T. vaginalis. The pooled prevalence of ever infection (seropositivity using antibody testing) was 12.8% (95% CI = 9.4%-16.6%) for T. pallidum, 80.3% (95% CI = 53.2%-97.6%) for C. trachomatis, and 23.7% (95% CI = 10.2%-40.4%) for HSV-2. The multivariable meta-regression for T. pallidum infection demonstrated strong subregional differences, with the Horn of Africa and North Africa showing, respectively 6-fold (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 6.4; 95% CI = 2.5-16.7) and 5-fold (AOR = 5.0; 95% CI = 2.5-10.6) higher odds of infection than Eastern MENA. There was also strong evidence for declining T. pallidum odds of infection at 7% per year (AOR = 0.93; 95% CI = 0.88-0.98). Study-specific factors including diagnostic method, sample size, sampling methodology, and response rate, were not associated with syphilis infection. The multivariable model explained 48.5% of the variation in T. pallidum prevalence. CONCLUSIONS: STI infection levels among FSWs in MENA are considerable, supporting a key role for commercial heterosexual sex networks in transmission dynamics, and highlighting the health needs of this neglected and vulnerable population. Syphilis prevalence in FSWs appears to have been declining for at least three decades. Gaps in evidence persist for multiple countries

    Body image, body dissatisfaction and weight status in south asian children: a cross-sectional study

    Get PDF
    Background Childhood obesity is a continuing problem in the UK and South Asian children represent a group that are particularly vulnerable to its health consequences. The relationship between body dissatisfaction and obesity is well documented in older children and adults, but is less clear in young children, particularly South Asians. A better understanding of this relationship in young South Asian children will inform the design and delivery of obesity intervention programmes. The aim of this study is to describe body image size perception and dissatisfaction, and their relationship to weight status in primary school aged UK South Asian children. Methods Objective measures of height and weight were undertaken on 574 predominantly South Asian children aged 5-7 (296 boys and 278 girls). BMI z-scores, and weight status (underweight, healthy weight, overweight or obese) were calculated based on the UK 1990 BMI reference charts. Figure rating scales were used to assess perceived body image size (asking children to identify their perceived body size) and dissatisfaction (difference between perceived current and ideal body size). The relationship between these and weight status were examined using multivariate analyses. Results Perceived body image size was positively associated with weight status (partial regression coefficient for overweight/obese vs. non-overweight/obese was 0.63 (95% CI 0.26-0.99) and for BMI z-score was 0.21 (95% CI 0.10-0.31), adjusted for sex, age and ethnicity). Body dissatisfaction was also associated with weight status, with overweight and obese children more likely to select thinner ideal body size than healthy weight children (adjusted partial regression coefficient for overweight/obese vs. non-overweight/obese was 1.47 (95% CI 0.99-1.96) and for BMI z-score was 0.54 (95% CI 0.40-0.67)). Conclusions Awareness of body image size and increasing body dissatisfaction with higher weight status is established at a young age in this population. This needs to be considered when designing interventions to reduce obesity in young children, in terms of both benefits and harms
    corecore