Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Urine Toxicology in Adults Evaluated for a Central Hypersomnia and How the Results Modify the Physician's Diagnosis

Study Objectives: Drugs and psychoactive substances can cause sleepiness and when undetected, may lead to over diagnosis of central hypersomnias. We performed urine drug testing using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in adults undergoing multiple sleep latency testing (MSLT) for a suspected central hypersomnia. We examined how the drug test results modified the treating physician's diagnosis. Methods: One hundred eighty-six consecutive patients with a suspected central hypersomnia who underwent clinical assessment, MSLT and urine drug testing by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry were retrospectively studied. Physicians made a diagnosis after clinical assessment and MSLT and were initially blinded to the urine drug test results. Results: A third of patients assessed for subjective hypersomnia had a positive urine drug test for a substance affecting sleep. Opioids, cannabis, and amphetamines were the commonest drugs detected. Using MSLT, 35 (18.8%) of 186 patients had objective hypersomnia that may have been due to a drug or substance. Drugs or substances may have confounded the MSLT in 11 (20.1%) of 53 patients who fulfilled diagnostic criteria for idiopathic hypersomnia, and 12 (52%) of 23 of those who fulfilled diagnostic criteria for narcolepsy without cataplexy. Of the 75 positive urine drug samples, 61 (81%) were substances or medications not revealed in the physician interview. The treating physician had not suspected drugs or substances as a possible cause of objective hypersomnia in 34 (97%) of the 35 patients. Conclusions: Drugs and psychoactive substances can confound the results of the MSLT and when undetected could lead to over diagnosis of central hypersomnias

Implementation Status, Knowledge and Attitudes of Traders on Inspection and Rating of Food Handling Establishments in an Urban Area, Sri Lanka

ABSTRACT Background: Safe food is a basic and fundamental need of humans. In Sri Lanka, food safety is largely achieved through the implementation of the Food Act of 1980. Other than the legal interventions, routine departmental procedures contribute to sustain food safety. Inspection of food establishments and grading by using the format for grading food establishment (H800) is the main method of regular monitoring in order to achieve and sustain food safety.Methods: The research is a cross sectional descriptive study and 427 traders participated. The research assessed the inspection of food establishments and grading program by using the H800 format in terms of knowledge, attitudes and implementation. Results: Inspection of food establishments and grading them using the H800 format and awareness among traders on H800 are not satisfactory. Conclusions: The food premises inspection programme by using H800 form is unsuccessful. It is recommended revised the H800 form to make it simpler and user friendly and to monitor grading program by supervising officers and higher authorities. Key words: Food establishment grading, Food safety, Food hygiene, Sri Lank

Risk loci involved in giant cell arteritis susceptibility: a genome-wide association study

Background Giant cell arteritis is an age-related vasculitis that mainly affects the aorta and its branches in individuals aged 50 years and older. Current options for diagnosis and treatment are scarce, highlighting the need to better understand its underlying pathogenesis. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have emerged as a powerful tool for unravelling the pathogenic mechanisms involved in complex diseases. We aimed to characterise the genetic basis of giant cell arteritis by performing the largest GWAS of this vasculitis to date and to assess the functional consequences and clinical implications of identified risk loci. Methods We collected and meta-analysed genomic data from patients with giant cell arteritis and healthy controls of European ancestry from ten cohorts across Europe and North America. Eligible patients required confirmation of giant cell arteritis diagnosis by positive temporal artery biopsy, positive temporal artery doppler ultrasonography, or imaging techniques confirming large-vessel vasculitis. We assessed the functional consequences of loci associated with giant cell arteritis using cell enrichment analysis, fine-mapping, and causal gene prioritisation. We also performed a drug repurposing analysis and developed a polygenic risk score to explore the clinical implications of our findings. Findings We included a total of 3498 patients with giant cell arteritis and 15 550 controls. We identified three novel loci associated with risk of giant cell arteritis. Two loci, MFGE8 (rs8029053; p=4·96 × 10–8; OR 1·19 [95% CI 1·12–1·26]) and VTN (rs704; p=2·75 × 10–9; OR 0·84 [0·79–0·89]), were related to angiogenesis pathways and the third locus, CCDC25 (rs11782624; p=1·28 × 10–8; OR 1·18 [1·12–1·25]), was related to neutrophil extracellular traps (NETs). We also found an association between this vasculitis and HLA region and PLG. Variants associated with giant cell arteritis seemed to fulfil a specific regulatory role in crucial immune cell types. Furthermore, we identified several drugs that could represent promising candidates for treatment of this disease. The polygenic risk score model was able to identify individuals at increased risk of developing giant cell arteritis (90th percentile OR 2·87 [95% CI 2·15–3·82]; p=1·73 × 10–13). Interpretation We have found several additional loci associated with giant cell arteritis, highlighting the crucial role of angiogenesis in disease susceptibility. Our study represents a step forward in the translation of genomic findings to clinical practice in giant cell arteritis, proposing new treatments and a method to measure genetic predisposition to this vasculitis

Pooled analysis of WHO Surgical Safety Checklist use and mortality after emergency laparotomy

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) Surgical Safety Checklist has fostered safe practice for 10 years, yet its place in emergency surgery has not been assessed on a global scale. The aim of this study was to evaluate reported checklist use in emergency settings and examine the relationship with perioperative mortality in patients who had emergency laparotomy. Methods: In two multinational cohort studies, adults undergoing emergency laparotomy were compared with those having elective gastrointestinal surgery. Relationships between reported checklist use and mortality were determined using multivariable logistic regression and bootstrapped simulation. Results: Of 12 296 patients included from 76 countries, 4843 underwent emergency laparotomy. After adjusting for patient and disease factors, checklist use before emergency laparotomy was more common in countries with a high Human Development Index (HDI) (2455 of 2741, 89·6 per cent) compared with that in countries with a middle (753 of 1242, 60·6 per cent; odds ratio (OR) 0·17, 95 per cent c.i. 0·14 to 0·21, P < 0·001) or low (363 of 860, 42·2 per cent; OR 0·08, 0·07 to 0·10, P < 0·001) HDI. Checklist use was less common in elective surgery than for emergency laparotomy in high-HDI countries (risk difference -9·4 (95 per cent c.i. -11·9 to -6·9) per cent; P < 0·001), but the relationship was reversed in low-HDI countries (+12·1 (+7·0 to +17·3) per cent; P < 0·001). In multivariable models, checklist use was associated with a lower 30-day perioperative mortality (OR 0·60, 0·50 to 0·73; P < 0·001). The greatest absolute benefit was seen for emergency surgery in low- and middle-HDI countries. Conclusion: Checklist use in emergency laparotomy was associated with a significantly lower perioperative mortality rate. Checklist use in low-HDI countries was half that in high-HDI countries

Global variation in anastomosis and end colostomy formation following left-sided colorectal resection

Background: End colostomy rates following colorectal resection vary across institutions in high-income settings, being influenced by patient, disease, surgeon and system factors. This study aimed to assess global variation in end colostomy rates after left-sided colorectal resection. Methods: This study comprised an analysis of GlobalSurg-1 and -2 international, prospective, observational cohort studies (2014, 2016), including consecutive adult patients undergoing elective or emergency left-sided colorectal resection within discrete 2-week windows. Countries were grouped into high-, middle- and low-income tertiles according to the United Nations Human Development Index (HDI). Factors associated with colostomy formation versus primary anastomosis were explored using a multilevel, multivariable logistic regression model. Results: In total, 1635 patients from 242 hospitals in 57 countries undergoing left-sided colorectal resection were included: 113 (6·9 per cent) from low-HDI, 254 (15·5 per cent) from middle-HDI and 1268 (77·6 per cent) from high-HDI countries. There was a higher proportion of patients with perforated disease (57·5, 40·9 and 35·4 per cent; P < 0·001) and subsequent use of end colostomy (52·2, 24·8 and 18·9 per cent; P < 0·001) in low- compared with middle- and high-HDI settings. The association with colostomy use in low-HDI settings persisted (odds ratio (OR) 3·20, 95 per cent c.i. 1·35 to 7·57; P = 0·008) after risk adjustment for malignant disease (OR 2·34, 1·65 to 3·32; P < 0·001), emergency surgery (OR 4·08, 2·73 to 6·10; P < 0·001), time to operation at least 48 h (OR 1·99, 1·28 to 3·09; P = 0·002) and disease perforation (OR 4·00, 2·81 to 5·69; P < 0·001). Conclusion: Global differences existed in the proportion of patients receiving end stomas after left-sided colorectal resection based on income, which went beyond case mix alone