Estimating Juvenile Recruitment of Elk in an Occupancy Modeling Framework

Juvenile recruitment is a key parameter in understanding ungulate population dynamics. Traditional methods in population composition surveys, such as estimating young: adult-female ratio’s, can be precluded by cost, safety, and feasibility. The use of remote cameras provides a potentially cutting-edge tool to apply to wildlife population estimation techniques. While the prevalence of remote cameras in ungulate studies has increased, few studies have used cameras to estimate vital rates, such as recruitment or survival. Here, we tested the potential of remote cameras to estimate calf: cow ratios and calf survival of elk (Cervus elaphus) using the Royle-Nichols (2003) occupancy model. Using the Royle-Nichols (2003) model, data collected from cameras on unmarked individuals can estimate detection probability and abundance. We compared camera-based estimates of calf: cow ratio to traditional ground-based estimates obtained from group classification surveys. We test this approach in a partially migratory elk population at the Ya Ha Tinda (YHT) Ranch, Alberta, Canada. We deployed cameras (n=44), across the YHT, a working horse ranch and important elk winter range. We created a Royle-Nichols occupancy model for female and young-of-year elk, estimating abundance of respective age classes for a 110-day sampling interval between 15 May – 1 September 2018. We estimated calf survival by comparing the abundance estimates of calves between 7 primary sampling periods and determined the effect of abiotic, biotic and anthropogenic covariates on detection probability and abundance. Our camera-based ratio results made biological sense; following expected trends in detection variability, peak calf abundance, and declining ratios associated with neonatal mortality. We then compared the estimates of calf survival and group composition to those of traditional field estimates collected in the same time period. We conducted a Pearson correlation test and found an r=0.426 correlation between our camera-based and ground observations of calf:cow ratio. Although the correlation was moderate, ground-based estimates were biased due to sightability of hiding calves. Thus, our results demonstrate the utility of using remote cameras to derive important parameters for understanding ungulate population dynamics

Integration of operations in process systems

The problem of system Integration in the context of an Industrial Enterprise is a multidimensional problem with fundamental dimensions those of: (i) Purpose, goals and objectives, (ii) Overall process operations, (ii) Overall System Design/Redesign, (iii) Information, Data and Software, and (iv) Verification, validation and assurance. Each of the above areas is addressed by respective groups which consider their area as representing the entirety of the problem and they frequently ignore the other important dimensions. The aim of this paper is to consider first the general problem of integration from all its fundamental aspects and focus on the key paradigm of Global Operations. Within this area we consider the issues of system organization and in particular the problems relating to hierarchical organization of the different operational functionalities, the issues of aggregation and disaggregation and the related problems of the "top-down" and "bottom up" approaches. System complexity is considered within this framework and the notion of emergent properties is then considered as a problem of aggregation of behaviours, which may be also seen as projections within the setup of a control and information architecture. Such an architecture is defined for the multi-level hierarchical organisational structure that we consider. We show that systems and control concepts and problems play a central role the development of an overall integration methodology and interpreting the features of the different emergent properties. The subject of modelling emerges with a central role in the effort to develop a methodology for systems integration, as well as quantifying the predictors of relevant emergent properties. The approach introduced here is intimately linked to Multilevel hybrid systems (Hierarchy of Operations), and provides a complementary dimension to issues of System Design (and Re-design) dominated by the theory of Structure Evolving systems [10] (in the total Design and Life-cycle analysis) emerges as the central approach. This paper provides an overview of the subject area and focuses on the development of the general conceptual framework for integration. We additionally develop and propose a systems framework for the evolutionary integration in this paper

Complexity, Emergence and the Challenges of Assurance: The Need for a Systems Paradigm

The complexity of modern products, systems, and processes makes the task to identify, characterise, and provide sufficient assurance about the desirable properties a major challenge. Stakeholders also demand a degree of enhanced confidence about the absence of undesirable properties with a potential to cause harm or loss. This develops a framework of seven fundamental facets of performance as an ontology for emergent behavioural properties and a separate framework for the emergent structural properties of complex systems. The emergent behavioural aspects are explored and we develop a systems framework for assurance based on an Assessment and Management paradigm each comprising a number of principles and processes. The key argument advanced is that in the face of complexity and incessant change, enhanced confidence in the achievement of desirable and avoidance of undesirable properties requires a systems approach empowered by suitable modelling and relevant diagnostic tools explaining the nature of emergent properties. Our principal focus is on safety, security, and sustainability emergent behavioural (performance) aspects of complex products, systems, and processes

Estimating Migratory—Resident Elk Populations and Juvenile Recruitment Using Remote Cameras in the Canadian Rockies

The use of remote cameras has been at the forefront of debate in the sphere of wildlife population estimates. There is research suggesting camera surveys underestimate ungulate populations, however, with a second component of estimation, such as years of GPS points from collared elk, modeling a population and estimating resident elk calf recruitment and juvenile survival can become quantifiable. During the summer of 2016 I initiated an undergraduate research project under Dr. Mark Hebblewhite’s ungulate ecology lab. Over the span of the summer, I deployed 28 remote cameras in a previously sampled large carnivore occupancy grid. The study area is the Ya Ha Tinda Ranch, adjacent to Banff National Park, Alberta. The purpose of my project is to estimate migratory—resident elk populations and juvenile recruitment utilizing remote cameras. Estimating ungulate populations is technical, expensive, and often a dangerous (helicopter surveys) task. As the ecology community evolves into safer, less invasive and more cost effective methods for population estimates, it is up to the wildlife research community to produce evidence that such methods are effective. My research is attempting to do just that with 88 collared individuals inhabiting the study area, spatially explicit mark re-sight models can be quantifiable in measuring non-uniquely identifiable ungulate populations across a landscape. The potential scientific impacts and applications resulting from my research project would be significant. A publication detailing how an elk population— with collared and uncollared individuals can be estimated strictly with remote wildlife cameras and would be a contribution in the desired direction of population ecology for less invasive, yet highly accurate and efficient population studies

System of Systems and Emergence. Part 1: Principles and Framework

The paper is in two parts and in Part (1) attempts to formalise the loose concept of "System of Systems" (SoS) within the context of Systems Theory whilst in Part (2) explores and develops a conceptual framework for emergence that is suitable for further development. We view the notion of SoS as an evolution of the standard notion of systems and provide an abstract and generic definition that is detached from the particular domain. To achieve this we deal first with the abstraction of the fundamental components of the system, describe the different aspects of the structure of a composite system and then embark on the task to explain the difference of the new notion, to the standard notion of Composite Systems. We present a new abstract definition of the notion of System of Systems as an evolution of the notion of Composite Systems, empowered by the concept of autonomy and participation in tasks referred to as plays which are usually linked to games. The notion of the play is introduced as an extension of the notion of the system and involves the notion of autonomous agents in place of objects and the notion of scenario in place of interconnection topology. This new definition characterises SoS as a development of the Composite System notion where now the subsystems act as autonomous intelligent agents in a multi-agent system play based on a scenario that possibly involves a game. The notion of emergence is considered within both the framework of Composite and SoS and it is linked to the problem of defining functions on a given system and evaluating their values. The emergence is thus presented as the defining signature of a system including System of Systems

Symmetries, groups and groupoids for Systems of Systems

In this paper we propose an algebraic model of systems based on the concept of symmetry that can be instrumental in representing Systems of Systems two main characteristics, namely complexity and (hierarchical) emergence

Multi-Agent Systems: A new paradigm for Systems of Systems

We present the notion of Systems of Systems, its drivers, and the challenges we face in conceptualizing, designing, implementing and validating them. In this work in progress we propose Multi-Agent Systems as a new paradigm, taken from Artificial Intelligence, which seems to fit the purpose

Complexity of Multi-Modal Transportation and Systems of Systems

The multi-modal transportation comprising diverse infrastructures, means & operations, energy resources, rules & regulations and a broad community of stakeholders constitute a complex yet real candidate for formalisation, analysis and optimization. It is shown that the complexity of the system is best described by viewing the challenges of its complexity as a System of Systems (SoS). The objective of this paper is to make an attempt to define and formalise the loose concept of “System of Systems” within the standard framework of Systems Theory and exploit this new theoretical foundation as a basis for understanding, characterisation, evaluation, assessment and management of complexity, relationships and optimal performance in a multi-modal transportation context. The longer term objective is to develop a robust systems framework for scientific treatment of requirements, constraints, risks, resilience, capacity, performance and trade-offs in multi-modal transportation setting

Group method of data handling to predict scour depth around vertical piles under regular waves

AbstractThis paper presents a new application of the Group Method Of Data Handling (GMDH), to predict pile scour depth exposed to waves. The GMDH network was developed using the Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) method in the training stage for scour prediction. Scour depth due to regular waves was modeled as a function of five dimensionless parameters, including pile Reynolds number, grain Reynolds number, sediment number, Keulegan–Carpenter number, and shields parameter. The testing results of the GMDH-LM were compared with those obtained using the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Radial Basis Function-Neural Network (RBF-NN), and empirical equations. In particular, the GMDH-LM provided the most accurate prediction of scour depth compared to other models. Also, the Keulegan–Carpenter number has been determined as the most effective parameter on scour depth through a sensitivity analysis. The GMDH-LM was utilized successfully to investigate the influence of the pile cross section and Keulegan–Carpenter number on scour depth