Role of zooplankton in determining the efficiency of the biological carbon pump

The efficiency of the ocean’s biological carbon pump (BCPeff – here the product of particle export and transfer efficiencies) plays a key role in the air-sea partitioning of CO2. Despite its importance in the global carbon cycle, the biological processes that control BCPeff are poorly known. We investigate the potential role that zooplankton play in the biological carbon pump using both in situ observations and model output. Observed and modelled estimates of fast, slow and total sinking fluxes are presented from three oceanic sites: the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, the temperate North Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). We find that observed particle export efficiency is inversely related to primary production likely due to zooplankton grazing, in direct contrast to the model estimates. The model and observations show strongest agreement in remineralization coefficients and BCPeff at the OMZ site where zooplankton processing of particles in the mesopelagic zone is thought to be low. As the model has limited representation of zooplankton-mediated remineralization processes, we suggest that these results point to the importance of zooplankton in setting BCPeff, including particle grazing and fragmentation, and the effect of diel vertical migration. We suggest that improving parameterizations of zooplankton processes may increase the fidelity of biogeochemical model estimates of the biological carbon pump. Future changes in climate such as the expansion of OMZs may decrease the role of zooplankton in the biological carbon pump globally, hence increasing its efficiency

Regional surface chlorophyll trends and uncertainties in the global ocean

Changes in marine primary productivity are key to determine how climate change might impact marine ecosystems and fisheries. Satellite ocean color sensors provide coverage of global ocean chlorophyll with a combined record length of ~ 20 years. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models can inform on expected changes and are used here to constrain observational trend estimates and their uncertainty. We produce estimates of ocean surface chlorophyll trends, by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models to form priors as a “first guess”, which are then updated using satellite observations in a Bayesian spatio-temporal model. Regional chlorophyll trends are found to be significantly different from zero in 18/23 regions, in the range ± 1.8% year−1. A global average of these regional trends shows a net positive trend of 0.08 ± 0.35% year−1, highlighting the importance of considering chlorophyll changes at a regional level. We compare these results with estimates obtained with the commonly used “vague” prior, representing no independent knowledge; coupled model priors are shown to slightly reduce trend magnitude and uncertainties in most regions. The statistical model used here provides a robust framework for making best use of all available information and can be applied to improve understanding of global change

Role of zooplankton in determining the efficiency of the biological carbon pump

The efficiency of the ocean’s biological carbon pump (BCPeff – here the product of particle export and transfer efficiencies) plays a key role in the air-sea partitioning of CO2. Despite its importance in the global carbon cycle, the biological processes that control BCPeff are poorly known. We investigate the potential role that zooplankton play in the biological carbon pump using both in situ observations and model output. Observed and modelled estimates of fast, slow and total sinking fluxes are presented from three oceanic sites: the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, the temperate North Atlantic and the equatorial Pacific oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). We find that observed particle export efficiency is inversely related to primary production likely due to zooplankton grazing, in direct contrast to the model estimates. The model and observations show strongest agreement in remineralization coefficients and BCPeff at the OMZ site where zooplankton processing of particles in the mesopelagic zone is thought to be low. As the model has limited representation of zooplankton-mediated remineralization processes, we suggest that these results point to the importance of zooplankton in setting BCPeff, including particle grazing and fragmentation, and the effect of diel vertical migration. We suggest that improving parameterizations of zooplankton processes may increase the fidelity of biogeochemical model estimates of the biological carbon pump. Future changes in climate such as the expansion of OMZs may decrease the role of zooplankton in the biological carbon pump globally, hence increasing its efficiency

Assessing the effect of tandem phase Sentinel-3 OLCI Sensor uncertainty on the estimation of potential ocean chlorophyll-a trends

The Sentinel-3 tandem project represents the first time that two ocean colour satellites have been flown in the same orbit with minimal temporal separation (~30 s), thus allowing them to have virtually identical views of the ocean. This offers an opportunity for understanding how differences in individual sensor uncertainty can affect conclusions drawn from the data. Here, we specifically focus on trend estimation. Observational chlorophyll-a uncertainty is assessed from the Sentinel-3A Ocean and Land Colour Imager (OLCI-A) and Sentinel-3B OLCI (OLCI-B) sensors using a bootstrapping approach. Realistic trends are then imposed on a synthetic chlorophyll-a time series to understand how sensor uncertainty could affect potential long-term trends in Sentinel-3 OLCI data. We find that OLCI-A and OLCI-B both show very similar trends, with the OLCI-B trend estimates tending to have a slightly wider distribution, although not statistically different from the OLCI-A distribution. The spatial pattern of trend estimates is also assessed, showing that the probability distributions of trend estimates in OLCI-A and OLCI-B are most similar in open ocean regions, and least similar in coastal regions and at high northern latitudes. This analysis shows that the two sensors should provide consistent trends between the two satellites, provided future ageing is well quantified and mitigated. The Sentinel-3 programme offers a strong baseline for estimating long-term chlorophyll-a trends by offering a series of satellites (starting with Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B) that use the same sensor design, reducing potential issues with cross-calibration between sensors. This analysis contributes an important understanding of the reliability of the two current Sentinel-3 OLCI sensors for future studies of climate change driven chlorophyll-a trends

The role of particle associated microbes in remineralisation of faecal pellets in the upper mesopelagic of the Scotia Sea, Antarctica

Fecal pellets (FP) are a key component of the biological carbon pump, as they can, under some circumstances, efficiently transfer carbon to depth. Like other forms of particulate organic carbon (POC), they can be remineralized in the ocean interior (particularly in the upper 200 m), or alternatively they can be preserved in the sediments. The controls on the attenuation of FP flux with depth are not fully understood, in particular, the relative contributions of zooplankton fragmentation and microbial/zooplankton respiration to FP loss. Collection of sinking particles using Marine Snow Catchers at three ecologically contrasting sites in the Scotia Sea, Antarctica, revealed large differences in POC flux composition (5–96% FP) and flux attenuation despite similar temperatures. To determine the importance of microbial respiration on FP loss in the upper mesopelagic, we made the first ever measurements of small scale oxygen gradients through the boundary layer at the interface of krill FP collected from the Scotia Sea. Estimated carbon-specific respiration rates of microbes within FP (0.010–0.065 d−1) were too low to account for the observed large decreases in FP flux over the upper 200 m. Therefore, the observed rapid declines in downward FP flux in the upper mesopelagic are more likely to be caused by zooplankton, through coprophagy, coprorhexy, and coprochaly. Microbial respiration is likely to be more important in regions of higher temperatures, and at times of the year, or in depths of the ocean, where zooplankton abundances are low and therefore grazing and fragmentation processes are reduced

Phenological characteristics of global coccolithophore blooms

Coccolithophores are recognized as having a significant influence on the global carbon cycle through the production and export of calcium carbonate (often referred to as particulate inorganic carbon or PIC). Using remotely sensed PIC and chlorophyll data, we investigate the seasonal dynamics of coccolithophores relative to a mixed phytoplankton community. Seasonal variability in PIC, here considered to indicate changes in coccolithophore biomass, is identified across much of the global ocean. Blooms, which typically start in February–March in the low-latitude (~30°) Northern Hemisphere and last for ~6–7 months, get progressively later (April–May) and shorter (3–4 months) moving poleward. A similar pattern is observed in the Southern Hemisphere, where blooms that generally begin around August–September in the lower latitudes and which last for ~8 months get later and shorter with increasing latitude. It has previously been considered that phytoplankton blooms consist of a sequential succession of blooms of individual phytoplankton types. Comparison of PIC and chlorophyll peak dates suggests instead that in many open ocean regions, blooms of coccolithophores and other phytoplankton can co-occur, conflicting with the traditional view of species succession that is thought to take place in temperate regions such as the North Atlantic

The Sensitivity of Subsurface Microbes to Ocean Warming Accentuates Future Declines in Particulate Carbon Export

Under future warming Earth System Models (ESMs) project a decrease in the magnitude of downward particulate organic carbon (POC) export, suggesting the potential for carbon storage in the deep ocean will be reduced. Projections of POC export can also be quantified using an alternative physiologically-based approach, the Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE). MTE employs an activation energy (Ea) describing organismal metabolic sensitivity to temperature change, but does not consider changes in ocean chemistry or physics. Many ESMs incorporate temperature dependent functions, where rates (e.g., respiration) scale with temperature. Temperature sensitivity describes how temperature dependence varies across metabolic rates or species. ESMs acknowledge temperature sensitivity between rates (e.g., between heterotrophic and autotropic processes), but due to a lack of empirical data cannot parameterize for variation within rates, such as differences within species or biogeochemical provinces. Here we investigate how varying temperature sensitivity affects heterotrophic microbial respiration and hence future POC export. Using satellite-derived data and ESM temperature projections we applied microbial MTE, with varying temperature sensitivity, to estimates of global POC export. In line with observations from polar regions and the deep ocean we imposed an elevated temperature sensitivity (Ea = 1.0 eV) to cooler regions; firstly to the Southern Ocean (south of 40°S) and secondly where temperature at 100 m depth <13°C. Elsewhere in both these scenarios Ea was set to 0.7 eV (moderate sensitivity/classic MTE). Imposing high temperature sensitivity in cool regions resulted in projected declines in export of 17 ± 1% (< 40°S) and 23 ± 1% (< 13°C) by 2100 relative to the present day. Hence varying microbial temperature sensitivity resulted in at least 2-fold greater declines in POC export than suggested by classic MTE derived in this study (12 ± 1%, Ea = 0.7 eV globally) or ESMs (1–12%). The sparse observational data currently available suggests metabolic temperature sensitivity of organisms likely differs depending on the oceanic province they reside in. We advocate temperature sensitivity to be incorporated in biogeochemical models to improve projections of future carbon export, which could be currently underestimating the change in future POC export

Attenuation of sinking particulate organic carbon flux through the mesopelagic ocean

The biological carbon pump, which transports particulate organic carbon (POC) from the surface to the deep ocean, plays an important role in regulating atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations. We know very little about geographical variability in the remineralization depth of this sinking material and less about what controls such variability. Here we present previously unpublished profiles of mesopelagic POC flux derived from neutrally buoyant sediment traps deployed in the North Atlantic, from which we calculate the remineralization length scale for each site. Combining these results with corresponding data from the North Pacific, we show that the observed variability in attenuation of vertical POC flux can largely be explained by temperature, with shallower remineralization occurring in warmer waters. This is seemingly inconsistent with conclusions drawn from earlier analyses of deep-sea sediment trap and export flux data, which suggest lowest transfer efficiency at high latitudes. However, the two patterns can be reconciled by considering relatively intense remineralization of a labile fraction of material in warm waters, followed by efficient downward transfer of the remaining refractory fraction, while in cold environments, a larger labile fraction undergoes slower remineralization that continues over a longer length scale. Based on the observed relationship, future increases in ocean temperature will likely lead to shallower remineralization of POC and hence reduced storage of CO2 by the ocean

Influence of seasonal variability in flux attenuation on global organic carbon fluxes and nutrient distributions

The biological carbon pump is a key component of the marine carbon cycle. This surface-to-deep flux of carbon is usually assumed to follow a simple power law function, which imposes that the surface export flux is attenuated throughout subsurface waters at a rate dictated by the parameterization exponent. This flux attenuation exponent is widely assumed as constant. However, there is increasing evidence that the flux attenuation varies both spatially and seasonally. While the former has received some attention, the consequences of the latter have not been explored. Here we aim to fill the gap with a theoretical study of how seasonal changes in both flux attenuation and sinking speed affect nutrient distributions and carbon fluxes. Using a global ocean-biogeochemical model that represents detritus explicitly, we look at different scenarios for how these varies seasonally, particularly the relative “phase” with respect to solar radiation and the “strength” of seasonality. We show that the sole presence of seasonality in the model-imposed flux attenuation and sinking speed leads to a greater transfer efficiency compared to the non-seasonal flux attenuation scenario, resulting in an increase of over 140% in some cases when the amplitude of the seasonality imposed is 60% of the non-seasonal base value. This work highlights the importance of the feedback taking place between the seasonally varying flux attenuation, sinking speed and other processes, suggesting that the assumption of constant-in-time flux attenuation and sinking speed might underestimate how much carbon is sequestered by the biological carbon pump

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike